With two outdoor games for the AFC and NFC Championships, there is a risk that we could see Mother Nature impact both games. Over the last five years, the NFL has had a lot of luck with the weather for their Conference Championship games, with rain or snow rarely being an issue. That is a trend that looks set to continue this season in Philadelphia and Kansas City.
However, both games could see some impact from cold temperatures or wind. Let’s break down the weather forecast for the NFC and AFC Championship Games
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Weather
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are current as of 5:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, Jan. 26, 2025. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
- Kickoff: 3 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 30s
- Precipitation: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6-9 mph westerly with gusts up to 22 mph
Based on what we saw last week in Philadelphia, this game between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles will be played in relatively friendly conditions. There is no precipitation in the forecast throughout the game, and temperatures are set to be a few degrees above freezing. It will still be cold for both teams, but not anything that should particularly phase them.
The one element to watch for is the wind, at least early in the game. The current forecast has gusts of up to 22 miles per hour blowing through the area during pregame. However, those are expected to be gone at some point between 3 and 4 p.m. ET. Therefore, the impact of the gusts should be limited to the first quarter and may even be negligible by kickoff.
Once the guests are gone, the wind that gets left behind is nothing that should phase either team, and the wind speed will drop throughout the game to around 6 mph in the fourth quarter.
That leaves temperature as the main weather impact in this game. However, when we look back over the past decade, temperatures in the high 30s are not considered that impactful in terms of game outcomes or fantasy outputs.
On average, over the last decade, there have been 45.5 points per game scored and 93.7 PPR fantasy points per game per team. When the temperature is between 30 and 40 Fahrenheit at kickoff, the average points per game is 45.0, and the average fantasy points per game per team is 91.6.
While both of those are slight decreases compared to the average, neither should cause any complications for fantasy football managers or anyone betting on the game.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Weather
- Kickoff: 6:30 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 20s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3 mph westerly
The AFC Championship Game in Arrowhead between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs is forecasted to be somewhat colder than the weather in Philadelphia. Temperatures will be just below freezing, with a wind chill just below 20 degrees Fahrenheit.
On the positive side, no rain is forecasted, and the wind speed is not expected to reach above 3 mph during the game.
In the last decade, 53 games have been played where the temperature was between 20 and 30 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff. In those games, the average points per game were 41.1 and 84.8 PPR points per game. Those are both decreases of around 10% on average in games played in all temperatures over the last decade.
Ultimately, 10% should not be a major concern for fantasy managers or anyone betting on this game when making decisions. Passing output is impacted somewhat in these conditions, but since both quarterbacks can use their legs and the lack of reliance on the pass-catching options in this game for fantasy purposes, there shouldn’t be any need to downgrade anyone too much.