While traditional fantasy football formats have dominated the landscape, managers can find numerous ways to play the game they love. Underdog Pick’em contests allow managers to put their player projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines.
With Week 4 of the NFL season upon us, here are the top Underdog Pick’em plays for Sunday Night Football between the Kansas City Cheifs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Top Underdog Pick’em plays for Sunday Night Football
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. Here, the more selections you add to your entry, the higher the payout.
The levels are two players for 3x, three for 6x, four 10x, and finally, five for 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry.
Mike Evans higher than 69.5 receiving yards
Maybe it’s a trap, but this feels way too easy. If I see Mike Evans anywhere at sub-70 yards, it’s almost an instant higher for me on Underdog. Evans has a chip on his shoulder after missing last week due to a suspension and needs a get-right game.
We only have a one-game sample size of Evans this year, coming back in Week 1, where he hauled in five of seven targets for 71 yards and a score. But we know who Evans is and how important he is to Tom Brady and this passing attack. He could have had a monster game in Week 2 before his ejection, as Evans had 61 yards on three receptions.
Brady is likely to hyper-target Evans in Week 4. Chris Chris Godwin (hamstring) is a game-time decision, as is Julio Jones (knee). Russell Gage is also questionable with a hamstring injury but is on track to play. Although 10th in EPA/dropback, Evans could feast against a Cheifs defense that is allowing 68% of passes to be completed (7th most).
Leonard Fournette higher than 0.5 rushing and receiving touchdowns
If anyone is going to find paydirt on Sunday night, it’s Leonard Fournette. After scoring ten times last year, Fournette has yet to score in 2022. That doesn’t mean he is struggling. It means he is due. At least that is the opinion of the glass-half-full person putting their money where their mouth is.
Fournette was literally the only Bucs RB to record a touch last week, and while his targets are a bit down from 6.0 to 4.0, Lombardi Lenny’s rushes are up from 12.8 in 2021 to a whopping 19 in 2022.
Fournette’s utilization is elite, playing on 85% of the snaps while recording 80% of the rushes with a 74% route participation and a 15% target share plus 100% inside the five-yard line.
Kansas City is middle of the pack vs. the rush (16th in EPA) and has allowed two touchdowns to the position so far. Make that at least three after Fournette crushes his 0.5 rushing and receiving TD projection on Underdog Pick’ems.
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Travis Kelce higher than 6.0 receptions or 68.5 yards
To play on Underdog’s Sunday Night Pick’ems, if you want to do a single-game entry, you have to pick from both sides. Luckily for us, these offenses are chock-full of talent and upside, and No one more so than Travis Kelce.m
It doesn’t matter the matchup, Kelce is the top option for Patrick Mahomes on this new-look offense. Kelce ranks No. 1 on the Chiefs with 24 targets, 17 receptions, 230 yards receiving, and two touchdowns. On the New Height’s podcast hosted by Travis and Jason Kelce, Travis put full blame on himself for last week, including the uncharacteristic drops.
That game is an outlier, and Kelce could have a monster game as the Chiefs need to get back in the win column against a former Super Bowl opponent. I expect Kelce to be peppered with targets, making both his 6.0 targets and 68.5 projections tasty. I’d take the higher on either option.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire lower than 11.55 fantasy points
It is a risk because it’s low, but I do favor the lower side on Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy projection of 11.55 fantasy points. No question CEH got out of the gates hot, and right now, he is the more efficient back in Kansas City. He’s caught all 12 of his targets and, amongst RBs with 10+ carries, leads the NFL with 4.1 yards after contact.
Last week showed how dangerously close Edwards-Helaire can turn back into a pumpkin. A touchdown on five of five receiving saved his day after gaining zero yards on seven rushes.
Additionally, he’s got to deal with Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco, who just steal opportunities. Through three games, Edwards-Helaire only has 33.8% of the rush volume, an 11.9% target share, and a route participation rate of 36.7% with five RZ opportunities.
I am worried the bottom falls out of Edward-Helaire’s efficiency on Sunday night against a Buccaneers team who has allowed a league-low 9.4 fantasy points per game. Remember, Underdog Pick’ems use 0.5 PPR scoring, making those fantasy-saving targets less valuable.
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