Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog Fantasy, managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stats. Here are my top Underdog Pick’em plays for the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets Thursday Night Football pick’em contest.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Thursday Night Football
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stats and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x your entry fee or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s Underdog Pick’ems.
Travis Etienne Jr. Higher Than 16.5 Rush Attempts
Travis Etienne Jr. has played at least 70% of the snaps in seven games. He’s carried the ball at least 17 times in four of them. That already gives us a better than 50% chance of winning this.
Digging a little deeper, we can see a pattern as to why Etienne’s carry count is higher. Of the three games where Etienne played at least 70% of the snaps and didn’t see 17 carries, two of them were multiple-score losses by the Jaguars.
Even if the Jets, as slight home favorites, beat the Jaguars, this game is unlikely to be more than a one-score game. As a result, Jacksonville will not have to abandon the run.
Furthermore, the forecast in East Rutherford calls for a lot of rain and higher-than-normal winds.
Etienne carried the ball 19 times last week and 17 times the week before. He should make it three straight with at least 17 carries against the Jets on Thursday night.
Zay Jones Lower Than 48.5 Receiving Yards
Am I crazy? Zay Jones has caught 14 passes for 186 yards and four touchdowns over his past two games. How in the world is he not getting to at least 50 receiving yards?
I already mentioned the weather concerns above, which could lead to more running from both teams. But the main reason we’re fading Jones is simple: Sauce Gardner.
MORE: NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 16 Thursday Night Football
Although Christian Kirk is technically the WR1 of this team, it’s Jones who lines up outside 74% of the time. Kirk spends half his snaps in the slot. That means Jones will see more of Gardner.
I love sauce on my food. I hate it on my wide receivers.
Gardner allows just 24.6 receiving yards per game and leads the league with 16 passes defensed. He might already be the top shutdown corner in the NFL.
This week’s target: Jones.
Jamal Agnew Higher Than 8.5 Receiving Yards
Jamal Agnew is a distant fourth wide receiver behind Kirk and the Joneses. But when he’s on the field, it’s typically for a play designed to get him the ball.
Agnew has seen three targets in his last two games, catching two for 12 yards last week, and three for 36 yards two weeks ago. Although it’s too small of a sample size to register, Agnew’s targets-per-route-run rate is 50%. He’s only going to run a handful of routes, but you can rest assured he’ll be thrown the ball on a couple of them.
Given the weather situation, it makes sense for the Jaguars to try a gadget play or two to Agnew. He could see a bop screen, a flare route out of the backfield, or one of those touch passes on a jet sweep.
With a 7.3 average depth of target, utilizing Agnew on high-percentage throws near the line of scrimmage makes sense in poor conditions. He should be able to amass nine yards on one or two receptions.
Note: These are my three favorite plays for Thursday night. Underdog requires at least one pick from each team on single-game slates. There is nothing on the Jets’ side that I am overly confident in. But since we need one, this is the best I’ve got.
Zach Wilson Lower Than 13.85 Fantasy Points
Even in the most ideal of conditions, Zach Wilson is a coin flip (at best) to hit 14 fantasy points. Tonight, in bad weather, against a team you can run against, I don’t like his prospects at all.
The Jets should be able to implement a conservative game plan with a lot of running and short throwing. For Wilson to surpass 13.85 fantasy points, he’ll need a touchdown, and I’m really not sure he gets one.
Jacksonville does have a weak pass defense, but Wilson is a weak starting QB. The weather should allow New York to hide their quarterback as much as possible, and I struggle to see them not taking that deal from mother nature.
If Wilson throws for 200 yards and a touchdown without turning it over, more power to him. I’m fading offense as a whole in this one tonight.
