Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top plays for Underdog’s Week 9 Pick’em contest.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Week 9 Sunday Games
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x even money or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s NFL pick’ems.
Aaron Rodgers Lower Than 35.5 Pass Attempts
I was very surprised to see this projection set so high. I thought it would be around 32.5. This isn’t the same Aaron Rodgers who is liable to throw out 40+ times a game.
Rodgers is averaging 34.25 pass attempts per game. As always, context is required. In games where the Packers actually win, Rodgers doesn’t throw very much. He’s yet to attempt more than 35 passes in a single win.
On the whole, he’s surpassed 35 pass attempts just two times all season. Both instances came against the New York teams in game script where the Packers were trying to catch up late.
It also helps that the Lions can’t stop the run. They allow the third-most rushing yards per game and lead the league in rushing touchdowns allowed per game.
I like the Packers to implement a game plan featuring a whole lot of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. The only way I see us losing this is if the Packers inexplicably fall behind by multiple scores.
AJ Dillon Higher Than 40.5 Rushing Yards
If you just read the explanation behind the Rodgers’ prop, then this one doesn’t require much else. Dillon has surpassed 40 rushing yards in five games this season, including last week. In positive game script against a bad run defense, he could easily get there on just 8-10 carries. I think there’s a chance he sees 12-14 in this one.
Jared Goff Higher Than 0.5 Interceptions
Jared Goff has thrown an interception in five of his seven games this season. Against the Dolphins in Week 8, Goff managed to protect the ball for the first time all season in a game the Lions lost. Otherwise, he tends to throw picks in losses.
MORE: Fantasy QB Streamers and Rankings Week 9
I’m expecting the Lions to lose to the Packers this week. Green Bay has intercepted the opposing quarterback in each of their last two games. I think Goff makes at least one large mistake in this one.
Deon Jackson Lower Than 81.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
I completely understand why this projection is as high as it is. In Deon Jackson’s two games in a primary role, he totaled 91 and 121 yards. So, it stands to reason he should fly past 81.5 total yards, right? Right?! Wrong!
The circumstances now are quite different than the previous two times. Matt Ryan is a statue in the pocket that checks down to running backs. As a result, Jackson caught 14 total passes in those two games. That’s not going to happen with Sam Ehlinger, who threw just three passes to the running backs in his first career start.
Additionally, Ehlinger attempted just 23 passes total. With Ehlinger’s mobility and his lack of experience, he’s less likely to check it down.
I’m expecting Jackson to only catch a couple of balls this week. Combine that with him not being overly efficient on the ground against a Patriots defense allowing the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs, and Jackson can still have a productive outing for fantasy managers with something like 12 carries for 50 yards and 3-20 in the air, yet fall short of this number.
Alec Pierce Higher Than 29.5 Receiving Yards
There’s no need to make this more complicated than it is. Maybe I’m the sucker. I guess we’ll find out. But I just don’t get how this number is so low.
Alec Pierce has had at least 37 receiving yards in six consecutive games. Even with Ehlinger at quarterback against a solid Patriots pass defense, I have full confidence in him to find his way to 30 yards.
Mac Jones Lower Than 211.5 Passing Yards
Surprisingly, Mac Jones has surpassed this number in all but one of his full games this season. Last week was the first time he didn’t even get to 200 yards passing. The matchup points to Jones falling short once again.
The Colts allow just 200 passing yards per game to quarterbacks. However, they allow the 14th-most rushing yards per game to running backs, indicating they’re far better against the pass than the run.
The Patriots are tied for seventh in neutral-game-script run rate at 49%. This is already the type of game they want to play. With a projected 40-point total and the Patriots playing at the sixth-slowest pace — averaging 30 seconds between snaps — everything suggests a slow-paced, run-heavy game on both sides.
Tyquan Thornton Lower Than 34.5 Receiving Yards
This is another line where I feel like I’m being hoodwinked. It’s just really high. Tyquan Thornton has caught exactly one pass in each of his last two games and saw a mere two targets last week.
I can’t help but wonder if DeVante Parker being inactive is a reason for this. But Parker might as well have not played last week, either. After all, he played just one snap.
MORE: Week 9 WR Fantasy Football Rankings
Thornton hasn’t come close to this number in three of his four games played. Given my projection about how this game will go, I don’t see expect much in the way of volume for Thornton. He will need to get there on a splash play.
When Jones does throw, I expect him to look Jakobi Meyers’ way more often than not. If Thornton has two catches for 40 yards, I’ll tip my cap. I don’t think he will.
Joe Burrow Higher Than 261.5 Passing Yards
I really feel like we’re getting a huge bounce-back performance from Joe Burrow. Even in what was one of his worst games last week, Burrow threw for 232 passing yards. It may not seem like much, but he struggled for most of the game. In the previous two weeks, Burrow threw for 481 and 300, respectively.
Last week, the Bengals played without Ja’Marr Chase for the first time since drafting him. I’m willing to chalk it up to a bad spot on the road against a divisional opponent and growing pains. After a full week to adjust, look for a rebound.
The Bengals remain a pass-first offense. They lead the NFL, by far, in neutral-game-script pass rate at a whopping 70%.
The Panthers are an average matchup for opposing quarterbacks, but this is more about the expectation that the Bengals will be looking to make a statement. I think Burrow goes for 300+ here.
Leonard Fournette Lower Than 78.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
Similar to Jackson above, this just feels too high. I don’t think Underdog has properly adjusted to Leonard Fournette’s new usage pattern.
Over the past two weeks, Fournette has totaled 58 and 26 yards against the Ravens and Panthers, respectively. He played 72% of the snaps last week and 60% the week prior.
Fournette has been wildly inefficient, averaging just 4.4 yards per touch. I just don’t think he will see enough volume to get there without a splash play. And until I see a splash play, I’m going to continue operating under the assumption it won’t happen.