Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top plays for Underdog’s Week 6 Pick’em contest.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Week 6 Sunday Games
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x even money or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s NFL pick’ems.
Adam Thielen Lower Than 9.45 Fantasy Points
I think I’ve finally solved Adam Thielen. He’s only been useful in games the Minnesota Vikings have to throw to win. In Weeks 3 and 4, the Vikings had to come from behind, and in those games, Thielen posted lines of 6-61-1 and 8-72. In his other three games, his lines were 3-36, 4-52, and 4-27.
This week, the Vikings play the Dolphins who are starting a third-string rookie seventh-rounder at quarterback. I don’t expect Minnesota to need to throw to keep up. This should be another heavy Justin Jefferson week, with Thielen serving as an afterthought.
I like Adam Thielen to go below his projected receptions and receiving yards, but instead of taking one (or both) of those, we can get a better deal on his fantasy points. Of course, if Thielen scores, this is lost. As he doesn’t, he can post a line of something like five catches for 60 yards and still not reach nine fantasy points.
Amari Cooper Higher Than 53.5 Receiving Yards
This marks consecutive weeks of taking Amari Cooper to go higher than his projection. Last week, it worked out. Let’s see if we can do it again.
According to Dwain McFarland, Cooper has a 35% target share against man coverage. The Patriots run man coverage 40% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Cooper torches man coverage.
Unless Bill Belichick changes his defensive scheme specifically to stop Cooper, the former Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders wideout should eat this week. Cooper has at least 76 receiving yards in three of his last four games. He’s the clear WR1. While this game will feature a lot of running, Cooper should see enough volume to eclipse 53.5 receiving yards.
Jeff Wilson Jr. Higher Than 65.5 Rushing Yards
This projection just feels awfully low for a guy who has rushed for at least 74 yards in every game he’s played since taking over for Elijah Mitchell.
Wilson has run well this season, and he now faces an Atlanta Falcons defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry. The 49ers run the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. As road favorites, I highly doubt San Francisco will be forced into passing more than they want to. Wilson should see plenty of work and easily surpass this number.
Tyler Allgeier Lower Than 46.5 Rushing Yards
We now go to the other side of the same game to fade Tyler Allgeier. This number feels high. Frankly, it feels like a number presuming Allgeier is the clear lead back for the Falcons.
Two weeks ago, Allgeier and Caleb Huntley both carried the ball 10 times in the game in which Cordarrelle Patterson went down. Last week, with Patterson out, Allgeier had 13 carries to Huntley’s eight. Avery Williams had three.
This is a relatively split backfield, and I don’t expect Allgeier to have more than 10-12 carries. He would need to average about four yards per carry to rush for more than 46.5 yards. The 49ers sport the best run defense in the league, allowing just 3.0 ypc. I’d be surprised if Allgeier even got to 40 rushing yards this week.
Leonard Fournette Lower Than 61.5 Rushing Yards
This number is a significant decrease from last week’s 70.5, but it’s not low enough. I really think Fournette’s weekly projection should be in the mid-to-low 50s.
Fournette’s snap share has been consistently around 60% in the past two games. This is clearly what head coach Todd Bowles (smartly) wants to do with his backfield. Rookie Rachaad White is plenty talented, and Fournette does not need to be playing 90% of the snaps.
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White has essentially been taking every third series. Two for Fournette. One for White. When White has his turn, he plays every snap. With this sequence, it’s difficult for Fournette to reach 60 rushing yards. Last week was his best game of the season, but he did most of his work through the air, as he only rushed for 56 yards.
The Bucs are finally healthy at wide receiver, and they no longer need to try and win games with ball control and defense. Even with positive game script last week, Tom Brady attempted 52 passes.
The Bucs are projected to beat the Steelers handily this week. I’m expecting Tampa Bay to make life very difficult for rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, win this game comfortably, and play White substantially in the second half.
Rachaad White Higher Than 32.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
See previous section for why I’m high on White this week. White had 56 total yards in Week 4 and 42 total yards in Week 5.
Between White getting every third series and the potential for him to have most of the fourth quarter to himself, the rookie has multiple paths to exceeding this number.
George Pickens Higher Than 46.5 Receiving Yards
Kenny Pickett’s guy appears to be fellow rookie George Pickens. Over the past two weeks, with Pickett under center, Pickens hauled in six passes for 102 yards in Week 4 and six for 83 yards in Week 5.
Last week, with negative game script throughout the entire game, Pickett attempted 52 passes. The Steelers are staring down the barrel of negative game script once again against the Buccaneers.
Pickens ran a season-high 46 routes last week, and the game marked his third consecutive contest with at least seven targets. The Bucs remain a pass-funnel defense. Everything points to Pickens once again being able to put up at least 70 receiving yards.
Chase Claypool Lower Than 39.5 Receiving Yards
Obviously, everything that’s great about Pickens’ matchup is also great for Chase Claypool. I just don’t believe in Claypool the player. He’s just not that good.
Last week, Claypool caught five passes for 50 yards. It was the first time all season that Claypool surpassed 35 receiving yards. This passing attack runs through Diontae Johnson first, followed by Pickens. Pickett is not capable of supporting a third fantasy-viable receiver, and Claypool looks like the odd man out.
Michael Carter Lower Than 43.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
Michael Carter’s combined yardage is five yards lower this week than last week. That’s good, but it’s not enough.
Carter is essentially a backup running back now. He easily surpassed this number in each of the first three weeks, but things are very different. He was playing well over 50% of the snaps to start the season.
This is Breece Hall’s backfield now. Carter has seen his snap share decline in three consecutive weeks. While he’s still averaging about 10 carries per game, he’s only managing 3.4 ypc on them. He’s also not being utilized as a receiver. Carter ran just six routes last week.
I don’t think Hall’s role is done growing. As a result, Carter’s chances will continue to decrease, making it more difficult for him to surpass this number.
Allen Robinson II Lower Than 33.5 Receiving Yards
Does this really even require an explanation anymore? It’s a weekly staple in our Underdog pick’em plays.
Allen Robinson II is one of the worst receivers in the NFL. The matchup hasn’t mattered yet, nor does it play any role in my recommending this week after week. This is all about Robinson being completely done.
Robinson’s target share is just 12% on the season, and his average depth of target is a paltry 10.8 yards. This will be a pick every week until we have a reason not to.
Eno Benjamin Lower Than 92.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
Eno Benjamin is a 2020 seventh-round pick who couldn’t beat out Jonathan Ward for playing time last season when James Conner and Chase Edmonds got hurt. Now, we’re supposed to buy that he’s going to be a three-down back with upwards of a 75% opportunity share? Sorry, I just don’t believe that.
Benjamin has never had a game where he played more than 54% of the snaps (which occurred last week). His career high in opportunities is 12. His carer high in total yardage is 61.
While Benjamin has certainly looked better this season and earned a larger role, 92.5 total yards is just really high. If he gets there, more power to him.