Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top plays for Underdog’s Week 14 Pick’em contest.
Top Underdog Pick ’ems for Week 14 Sunday Games
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x even money or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s NFL pick’ems.
Robert Woods Lower Than 39.5 Receiving Yards
With no Treylon Burks, Underdog bumped Robert Woods’ projection up to 39.5. Well, Woods just played basically an entire game without Burks and caught just one pass for six yards.
Of course, with a full week to prepare with Woods as the WR1, he should be more involved. He just hasn’t — all season.
Derrick Henry has a pretty good track record against the Jaguars. We are going to see a lot of him this week (as always). That will limit Ryan Tannehill’s pass attempts.
Woods has surpassed 39 receiving yards just twice all season. This is just a value proposition that he won’t do it again.
Adam Thielen Higher Than 4 Receptions
After a disastrous game last week, Adam Thielen is in a great spot to rebound against a Lions defense allowing 13.8 receptions per game to wide receivers — sixth most in the NFL.
Thielen caught six passes when these teams met back in Week 3. Of targets against the Lions, 65.7% go to wide receivers, the second-highest rate in the league. I think Thielen has at least five receptions in this one.
Daniel Bellinger Higher Than 22.5 Receiving Yards
Daniel Bellinger has played at least 60% of the snaps in five games this season and has had more than 22.5 receiving yards in every one of them.
MORE: Fantasy TE Streamers and Rankings Week 14
Last week was Bellinger’s first game back from a serious eye injury. He was on the field for 97% of the snaps and easily surpassed this number. Simply put, it’s too low. He should get there again with ease.
Dameon Pierce Lower Than 83.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
The Houston Texans are installed as the biggest under of the season. In negative game script, they pass the ball at a 71% clip, the 10th-highest rate in the NFL.
I just don’t expect Dameon Pierce to be able to see the volume necessary on the ground to get to this number. And he’s not going to be used enough through the air.
Brock Purdy Higher Than 0.5 Interceptions
This is probably my favorite pick of the week. We’ve seen this story before with backup quarterbacks, particularly on the 49ers.
Guys like C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens have come in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo. They play well in relief, and everyone thinks they will go on to be quality quarterbacks. But when they actually have to make starts with opponents having time to prepare, they throw a bunch of interceptions. I expect that to happen again with Purdy.
Perhaps the seventh-round rookie can prove me wrong, but I think we’re getting a truly disastrous performance from Purdy, which includes multiple interceptions.
Tom Brady Lower Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Tom Brady has now thrown two touchdowns in three straight games and seems to be getting back on track. However, anyone who watched last week’s game knows Brady should’ve finished the game with zero. He’s still playing as poorly as ever.
The 49ers have an elite defense and allow the fourth-lowest amount of passing touchdowns in the NFL at 0.92 per game.
MORE: Week 14 Fantasy Football Rest-of-Season Rankings
I expect this game to be ugly and low scoring. The Bucs may not even score two touchdowns, let alone have Brady throw for two himself.
D’Onta Foreman Higher Than 63.5 Rushing Yards
We’ve now seen six games of D’Onta Foreman without Christian McCaffrey, in which he’s posted four 100-yard rushing efforts. The best part is they’re not exactly random.
In each of Foreman’s 100-yard games, the Panthers either won or played a close one. In the other two games, they lost by multiple scores. This Sunday’s game against the Seahawks is projected to be close.
The Seahawks allow the seventh-most rushing yards per game, while the Panthers run the ball 52% of the time in neutral game script. Foreman should see plenty of volume, giving him a great chance to get to 70+ rushing yards.
My Underdog Entry
While I believe in all of these picks and would play them all straight if I could, here is my entry with my most confident picks.
