Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top plays for Underdog’s Week 12 Pick’em contest.
Top Underdog Pick ’ems for Week 12 Sunday Games
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x even money or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s NFL pick’ems.
Latavius Murray Lower Than 60.5 Rushing Yards
One of my favorite types of targets is the lower on running backs stepping into a perceived increase in usage. Often, the projection is inflated. That’s exactly what I believe the situation is here.
Following Melvin Gordon’s release, Latavius Murray is now the unquestioned starting running back for the Broncos. His backup appears to be Marlon Mack, who hasn’t played an offensive snap for any of the three teams he was on this season.
MORE: Fantasy RB Start ’em Sit ’em Week 12
I fully expect Murray to dominate touches, but I think this projection accounts for an increase. He had 17 carries last week. Is he really getting more?
Murray has carried the ball double-digit times on four occasions this season. He’s never had more than 66 rushing yards in a game. I just think this number is too high.
Terry McLaurin Higher Than 11.75 Fantasy Points
Since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback, Terry McLaurin has had at least 73 yards in three of five games. In the other two, he had 56 and 55 yards.
The Falcons allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers. They also allow 1.18 touchdowns per game to wide receivers.
McLaurin has multiple paths to success here. He can get there on something like a 7-80 line, or he can just be ridiculously efficient and hit 100 yards receiving. He can also simply score a touchdown.
Tyreek Hill Lower Than 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns
For the most part, if we get a projection on a wide receiver to score a touchdown, I will go lower. It’s hard to score touchdowns. As incredible as Tyreek Hill is, he’s still scored in just three of 10 games this season.
Every option on Underdog is essentially a coin flip. So, we’ve got a 50% shot at winning something that has only happened 30% of the time. Seems like a good deal to me.
Additionally, the Texans have more of a run-funnel defense. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily matter against a pass-heavy Dolphins offense that often does whatever it wants. Nevertheless, absent Hill scoring a long touchdown (which, of course, is always possible), the Dolphins will likely pound Jeff Wilson Jr. at the goal line, keeping Hill out of the end zone.
As an added bonus, if Hill gets a rare goal-line carry and runs one in, it doesn’t count for the purposes of this entry.
Samaje Perine Lower Than 0.5 Touchdowns
For Samaje Perine, it doesn’t matter how he scores, it will count. But similar to Hill, I’m down to bank on Perine not finding the end zone.
With Joe Mixon out, Perine is the presumptive feature back. Even so, there are several ways he fails. First, do we really expect him to see Mixon-level work? Chris Evans will be active this week, and he should be involved.
Second, the Titans have a pass-funnel defense. They are elite against the run, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry, the fourth-best mark in the league. But they are awful against the pass, allowing 287 passing yards per game, the second-worst mark in the league.
The Bengals already have the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL. That’s not going to change against a team that you’re supposed to throw on. The Titans have allowed just one rushing touchdown all season. The only way I see Perine scoring is through the air, and it’s more likely that he doesn’t.
Rachaad White Higher Than 0.5 Touchdowns
Does this make me a hypocrite? Maybe. But hey, we’re trying to win our entries here!
Rachaad White is set to be the Bucs’ feature back with Leonard Fournette missing his first game of the season due to a hip injury.
Whereas the Titans have allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns this season, leading us to fade Perine scoring, the Browns have allowed the most rushing touchdowns.
The Bucs should score 3-4 touchdowns this week, and Tom Brady isn’t about to throw all of them. He has just two multi-touchdown games all season. If and when they get near the goal line, it should be White punching in a short one.
Kareem Hunt Lower Than 28.5 Rushing Yards
Sticking with this game, let’s fade Kareem Hunt against the Bucs’ pass-funnel defense. When we last saw the Bucs, they were holding Kenneth Walker III to just 17 yards on 10 carries.
Hunt isn’t even the Browns’ main back, and they’ve been using him less and less as of late. After carrying the ball at least 10 times in each of his first five games, Hunt has hit double-digit carries just once in his last five.
Over his last five games, the only time Hunt saw more than six carries was in the lone game the Browns won. I don’t anticipate the Browns beating the Bucs.
If Hunt is carrying the ball only 5-6 times, he will need to average over 5 yards per carry to get to around 30 yards. That seems unlikely.
Trevor Lawrence Higher Than 0.5 Interceptions
Surprisingly, Trevor Lawrence has only been intercepted in four of his 10 games this season. So, technically, this is a negative EV pick. However, that assumes that the timing of his interceptions is random. I don’t think it is.
MORE: Saturday WR Injury Report Week 12
Lawrence struggles against quality pass defenses. For example, two of his picks came against the Eagles and Broncos.
Outside of their evisceration at the hands of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Ravens have had an excellent pass defense. They’ve recorded an interception in all but two games this season. I expect to be saying the same thing next week.
Travis Etienne Jr. Lower Than 16.5 Rush Attempts
It’s been four weeks since the Jaguars fully handed the backfield over to Travis Etienne Jr. In those games, his carry counts have been 14, 24, 28, and 11. So, this may seem like a coin flip pick. But I think there’s a method to the madness of Etienne’s carries.
Etienne had 24 and 28 carries in a one-score late fourth-quarter loss to the Broncos and a win over the Raiders. He had 14 and 11 carries in losses to the Giants and Chiefs.
This week, I think the Ravens beat the Jaguars. As a result, I don’t think Jacksonville will be able to keep pounding Etienne on the ground. Only Saquon Barkley has carried the ball more than 16 times against the Ravens. Etienne should stay below 16.5 rush attempts.
Alvin Kamara Lower Than 49.5 Rushing Yards
Obviously, there are more than five picks in this article. So, you can’t play them all in a single entry. I will preface this one by saying it is my favorite pick of the slate.
Alvin Kamara has been an elite running back for half a decade. Unfortunately, he’s declining before our very eyes, and I’m not sure if it’s being properly acknowledged.
Kamara is averaging just 4.1 yards per carry. He has two games on the season with more than 62 rushing yards. In his last five games, he’s reached 50 yards rushing just once.
The 49ers have the best run defense in the NFL. They allow 63 rushing yards per game and a paltry 3.2 yards per carry. I’m expecting Kamara to be running into brick walls all afternoon. He will have to create on his own, which, of course, he cannot do anymore, as evidenced by an evaded tackles rate outside the top 40.
Christian Watson Lower Than 43.5 Receiving Yards
I feel like I might be publicly shamed for fading Christian Watson. The talented rookie has 155 receiving yards in his last two combined. Five of his last eight receptions have gone for touchdowns.
MORE: Fantasy Football Injury Report Week 12
To be clear, Watson is good, and his performance is for real. But he’s still the Packers’ WR2 behind Allen Lazard. Despite Watson’s affinity for scoring touchdowns, Lazard has one more target than Watson over the past two games, both of which saw Watson playing starter-level snaps.
The Eagles allow the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Watson may have a much tougher time this week than he did against the Titans’ pass funnel defense or the Cowboys on a day where Dallas just didn’t show up.
My Underdog Entry
While I believe in all of these picks and would play them all straight if I could, here is my entry with my most confident picks.
