Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top plays for Underdog’s Week 10 Pick’em contest.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Week 10 Sunday Games
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x even money or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s NFL pick’ems.
Leonard Fournette Lower Than 72.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
This one has become a weekly recurring recommendation. Leonard Fournette hasn’t come close to 70 total yards in three consecutive games. The Bucs continue to reduce his touches per game. Over the past three weeks, he’s down to just 12 per game.
MORE: Saturday’s WR Injury Report Week 10
Fournette just can’t get anything going on the ground. He averages a minuscule 1.4 yards per carry before contact. And he’s not exactly making defenders miss with a 10% evaded tackle rate. Fournette also seems to have lost all of his explosiveness, with just 1.7% of his carries going for 15 yards or more.
The only way I see Fournette surpassing this number is with volume, but Rachaad White continues to cut into Fournette’s usage. Until his projection adjusts to a number I feel is more representative of what Fournette should be expected to produce, I will fade him every week.
Russell Wilson Higher Than 228.5 Passing Yards
As someone who has spent the better part of the past two months blasting Russell Wilson, this is a bit ironic. For some reason, I have faith in the Broncos to come out firing following their bye.
Wison has had more than 228.5 passing yards in four out of his seven starts. He particularly does well (at least in terms of volume) against weak pass defenses. Wilson threw for 340 yards against the Seahawks, 237 yards against the Raiders, and 252 yards against the Jaguars. He even got to 274 against the Colts’ tough pass defense.
The Titans allow 275 passing yards per game, the third-most in the league. They particularly struggle at defending the deep ball, allowing the highest deep ball completion rate.
Wilson’s completion percentages in all areas are outside the top 20… except for deep passes. He ranks 16th there and averages 9.7 air yards per attempt. The one thing Wilson can still do reasonably well is throw it deep. I’m expecting a pass-heavy game plan against a pass-funnel defense, allowing Wilson to sail past this number.
Chase Claypool Higher Than 3 Receptions
Chase Claypool made his Bears’ debut last week. He played 35% of the snaps and ran 15 total routes. Yet, he still saw six targets, catching two of them.
Justin Fields is playing much better. While this remains a run-heavy offense, Claypool seeing a 40% target per route run rate is extremely encouraging. Combine that with talk from Bears camp that they want to get him even more involved this week, and he should have no trouble catching at least three balls against a Lions defense allowing 13.6 receptions per game to wide receivers.
Davis Mills Lower Than 207.5 Passing Yards
Davis Mills has thrown for 154 yards or fewer in three of his last four starts. His passing yardage numbers have been dismal despite plenty of negative game script.
The Giants are pretty good at defending the pass, allowing just 208.4 passing yards per game. That is right at this number.
Given Mills’ recent performance and the likely returns of Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, conventional wisdom may suggest he goes higher. The reality is that this projection should be under 200, making it a great value pick this week.
Saquon Barkley Higher Than 97.5 Rushing Yards
We have not seen Saquon Barkley look this good since his rookie season. He’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry, his highest average since then. Barkley has three 100-yard rushing games on the season.
MORE: Wharton’s Start ’em Sit ’em Week 10
It’s important to pick your spots with Barkley, as he’s going to rush for lower than 100 yards more often than he doesn’t. This is one of those spots. The Texans allow a league-worst 154.4 rushing yards per game.
Coming out of the bye and always looking to hide their quarterback, the Giants will let Barkley run all over the Texans in a game where New York projects to see positive game script. I think there’s a chance he gets to 100 by halftime.
Sam Ehlinger Lower Than 28.5 Pass Attempts
This is probably my most confident pick of the slate. There are so many ways this pick wins and really only one way it loses.
New interim head coach Jeff Saturday sure sounds like someone who intends to establish the run and punt on 4th and 1. Both of these things serve to limit Sam Ehlinger’s potential pass attempts.
There’s also the fact that Ehlinger has no business starting NFL football games. That will certainly contribute to a more run-heavy game plan. Ehlinger is also mobile, averaging 5.5 rush attempts in his two starts. Those are 5.5 dropbacks where he’s not throwing a pass.
Finally, and most importantly, there’s the fact that Saturday wants to win football games. If he truly has full autonomy to make the decisions that he believes give the Colts the best chance to win, Ehlinger will not be the starting quarterback for much longer. Perhaps even by halftime.
Matt Ryan is back this week and will serve as Ehlinger’s backup. If Ehlinger gets benched, then this one will hit without a sweat.
Jonathan Taylor Lower Than 17.5 Receiving Yards
Continuing with the thought process from the preceding prop, I don’t see Jonathan Taylor doing much in the passing game. In his first game back, I’m expecting some level of caution for a back that already wasn’t used a ton in the passing game.
Taylor saw exactly one target in his lone game with Ehlinger. He did not catch it. Even with Matt Ryan, Taylor only went higher than 17.5 receiving yards in two of five games. This one hits more than it doesn’t.
Dalton Schultz Higher Than 33.5 Receiving Yards
This one is as simple as it gets. Perhaps, too simple. It’s certainly not about the matchup, as the Packers allow the lowest percentage of receiving yards to tight ends at 13.2%.
I’m just playing the numbers here. Dalton Schultz looks like Dak Prescott’s No. 2 target behind CeeDee Lamb. In Prescott’s three starts, Schultz has flown past this number. He should do it again.
Khalil Herbert Lower Than 9.65 Fantasy Points
Here, 9.65 fantasy points seems awfully high for a backup running back. David Montgomery played 70% of the snaps last week. Khalil Herbert saw just seven carries.
MORE: Week 10 Fantasy Football Rest-of-Season Rankings
While Herbert should obviously fare much better against the Lions’ deplorable run defense, he’s highly unlikely to go over 100 rushing yards. So, how exactly is he getting to 9.65 fantasy points? There’s really only one way — a touchdown.
Touchdowns are pretty random, and even more so when it comes to running backs on the wrong side of a timeshare. I’m fine predicting Herbert to not score, which is essentially what this pick comes down to.