While traditional fantasy football formats have dominated the landscape, managers can find numerous ways to play the game they love. Underdog Pick’em contests allow managers to put their player projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. With Week 1 of the NFL season upon us, here are the top Underdog Pick’em plays for Sunday Night Football between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys.
Top Underdog Pick’em plays for Sunday Night Football
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. Here, the more selections you add to your entry, the higher payouts. The levels are two players for 3x, three for 6x, four 10x, and finally, five for 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry.
Leonard Fournette higher than 84.5 total yards
For this Underdog Pick’em, I’m looking to the running backs. Leonard Fournette was a top-ranked RB for fantasy as he has a legitimate three-down role in the NFL’s fastest pace of play offense. Fournette is currently projected for 84.5 yards, according to Underdog, but this might be a bit low.
While some reports suggest the team wants to lighten his workload, I don’t see Rachaad White finding his groove. Few players saw more work than him, with Fournette averaging 19.7 touches and 103 total yards per game between Weeks 4-14.
Over that stretch, Fournette led all RBs in targets (63) and was fourth in receiving yards (344). Dallas has an average rush defense, allowing the 10th-most yards per attempt last year with a penchant to give up an explosive rush or two.
Tony Pollard higher than 19.5 receiving yards
While using a backup RB in a Pick’em contest might seem counterintuitive, the Dallas dynamic is not typical. Sure, Ezekiel Elliott is the No. 1, but Tony Pollard is a sensational player. I’m staying away from the rushing split but focusing on Pollard’s projection of 19.5 receiving yards.
Pollard cleared this total in nine of his 16 games last season, and it’s also how teams attacked the Buccaneers. While they were No. 1 vs. the run, Tampa allowed 46 yards a game to RBs (fifth-most). Pollard has plenty of momentum coming off career-highs in rushing attempts (130) and targets (46) while also finishing first in yards per route run at the position.
Pollard has averaged just 2.5 targets in games where Elliott is active, but the Cowboys have preached using Pollard more in the passing game this year due to the lack of WR depth. Paired with Fournette, the duo gives us a quick 3x Underdog Pick’em entry for Week 1 on Sunday Night Football.
Dak Prescott higher than 36.5 attempts and Tom Brady higher than 38.5 attempts
Both of these QBs will be in the upper range of passing attempts when the season ends. That starts in Week 1, and you can’t help but wonder how much Week 1 last year is a preview for Sunday night. Last year, Tom Brady lit up the Cowboys’ defense for 379 yards on 50 attempts. Tampa was No. 1 in passing rate and tempo in 2021, so we shouldn’t expect much difference.
Not to be outdone was Dak Prescott. In their showdown last year in Tampa, Prescott outdueled Brady with 403 yards and three TDs, as Kellen Moore dialed up the pass a whopping 58 times.
While Dallas was second in passing DVOA, the Buccaneers are unlikely to change who they are. The same goes for Dallas. With rushing likely coming at a premium, Prescott will have to carry the offense behind a downgraded OL while facing the defensive front that finished second in pressure rate last season.
On these single-game slates, I try to keep my Underdog Pick’Ems to two players as an injury can massively swing game scripts. Week 1 is all about building bankroll while learning who these teams are in 2022. I’ll go for another 3x Underdog Pick’Em entry and hope for a pass-happy Sunday Night Football game.