Winning games in the NFL is no easy feat, so opening the season on a winning streak can help position a team well when it comes to postseason seeding. That said, look no further than the 2023 Philadelphia Eagles to understand that peaking in the first half of the season doesn’t always correlate to success when it matters most.
After the Minnesota Vikings’ loss in Week 7, the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are the lone remaining unbeaten team in the NFL. Despite losing several key players to injuries, Kansas City is now 8-0 after beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9.
Unbeaten NFL Teams and Their Future Outlook
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are 8-0 for the third time in franchise history (2013, 2003) and for the first time with Patrick Mahomes. In both 2013 and 2003, they started a franchise-best 9-0.
The way the Chiefs have gotten to 8-0 this year highlights their evolution.
The Chiefs outlasted the Buccaneers in Week 8, as Kansas City escaped with a 30-24 overtime victory. Kansas City’s normally stout defense struggled to stop Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, despite Tampa Bay missing both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
After DeAndre Hopkins’ underwhelming debut for the Chiefs in Week 8, he was clearly more comfortable in his first home game in Kansas City. Hopkins hauled in eight receptions on nine targets for 86 yards and two touchdowns.
In their Week 7 win over the San Francisco 49ers, the Chiefs’ defense played its best game of the season. Kansas City had three takeaways, nearly matching its total from the first five games combined (four). The Chiefs also recorded 0.20 EPA per dropback, their best mark of the season. That allowed them to overcome Mahomes’ 44.4 passer rating, the worst of his career.
Even with Mahomes posting an underwhelming stat line this season (eight touchdowns and nine interceptions), the Chiefs can win in just about any way needed. One area that stands out is how well they execute towards the end of games. Consider their EPA splits by quarter entering Week 8:
- First three quarters: ninth in total EPA; 13th in offensive EPA, 12th in defensive EPA
- Fourth quarters: third in total EPA; fourth in offensive EPA, eighth in defensive EPA
In games decided by one score, the Chiefs have won 14 straight (including the playoffs).
Last week, we highlighted the importance of the Chiefs rounding out their options beyond Travis Kelce since Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, Isiah Pacheco, and JuJu Smith-Schuster are out due to injuries. Kansas City acquired veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins from the Tennessee Titans in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick.
Kelce has gotten going after a slow three-week start, but there will likely be an effort to load manage Kelce in his 12th season, so having other weapons who can step up will be big for Kansas City.
The run game has been efficient, ranking fourth in success rate entering Week 8. However, the big plays have been lacking, and they actually entered the week ranking last in percentage of runs going for 10+ yards.
A relatively light schedule from Weeks 12-15 figures to boost Kansas City’s win total even further, as they’ll face the Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, and Cleveland Browns. As a result, expect them to be the betting favorite to hold the top overall seed in the AFC.