The 1972 Miami Dolphins can pop the champagne.
The Kansas City Chiefs — the NFL’s last undefeated team entering Week 11 — suffered their first defeat of the season on Sunday, falling to 9-1 with a 30-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
Chiefs Were NFL’s Last Undefeated Team in 2024
Patrick Mahomes threw an interception on his first pass attempt on Sunday. While he finished with three touchdowns, Mahomes couldn’t conjure enough of his usual magic to get the Chiefs over the hump.
Kansas City took its only lead of the game when Mahomes found TE Noah Gray for a touchdown with 2:51 remaining in the second quarter. But Buffalo kicker Tyler Bass hit a field goal just before halftime to give the Bills a 16-14 lead, and they never looked back.
Since 2014, only two teams have remained undefeated deeper into the season than this year’s Chiefs. The 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers went 11-0 before dropping their first game, while the 2015 Carolina Panthers won 15 games before suffering their first loss.
Notably, none of the last undefeated teams over the past 11 years have gone on to win the Super Bowl. While that’s hardly predictive, it’s an intriguing data point as the Chiefs seek to become the first NFL team to win three consecutive Lombardi trophies.
According to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, Kansas City still has a 92.4% chance of winning the AFC West for the ninth straight season. The Chiefs hold a 3.5-game lead over the Denver Broncos (6-5) and already own a head-to-head tiebreaker. They’ll still be two games up on the Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) — and hold a tiebreaker — even if the Bolts win on Sunday Night Football.
The more interesting race is the battle for the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round playoff bye.
The Chiefs are still the favorites for the top seed, as well. PFN’s model gives Mahomes and Co. a 72.4% chance of securing a postseason bye. The Bills (9-2) are the only other AFC team with more than a one-in-10 shot at grabbing the No. 1 seed (15.3%).
Kansas City’s remaining strength of schedule ranks in the middle of the pack. Before Sunday’s game vs. the Bills, PFN’s metrics ranked the Chiefs’ remaining slate as the 15th-hardest in the league.
Here’s K.C.’s remaining schedule:
- Week 12: at Carolina Panthers
- Week 13: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 14: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 15: at Cleveland Browns
- Week 16: at Houston Texans
- Week 17: at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 18: at Denver Broncos
Andy Reid’s squad will be favored in every game moving forward. However, they will face a tough stretch between Weeks 15 and 17, when they’ll play three games in 10 days.
The Chiefs will travel to play the Browns on Sunday afternoon in Week 15, come back home to face the Texans on Saturday in Week 16, then face a short turnaround ahead of a Wednesday Christmas Day matchup against the Steelers.