The Indianapolis Colts made one of the more surprising quarterback decisions this season. Second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson was benched for Joe Flacco ahead of the team’s Week 9 game vs. the Minnesota Vikings, leaving doubt about Richardson’s future in Indy.
While some believe Richardson could remain the Colts’ quarterback of the future, would Indianapolis go all-in and totally pull the plug on the former No. 4 overall pick?
Why Colts Would Trade Richardson
By removing Richardson for Flacco, the Colts appear to be in win-now mode. FOX Sports Insider Jordan Schultz reported on Sunday that teams have inquired about Richardson’s availability ahead of Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline.
Sources: Teams have inquired with the #Colts about the possibility of trading QB Anthony Richardson, who was benched this week, though a trade is considered unlikely.
Several teams I spoke to still view Richardson as a franchise-caliber quarterback, and view Indy pulling the… pic.twitter.com/ptiygSQuaB
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) November 3, 2024
Notably, head coach Shane Steichen called Flacco the team’s starting quarterback “going forward,” indicating that this is not a temporary benching. If the Colts are truly prioritizing 2024 wins above all else, there isn’t much of a contest between the two quarterbacks.
With Flacco on the field, Indianapolis has averaged 0.08 expected points added per play, which would rank sixth on the season. With Richardson, the Colts have averaged -0.08 EPA per play, which would rank 25th.
PFN’s QB+ metric portrays an even harsher picture. QB+ accounts for a variety of situational EPA and success rate factors and grades Richardson out with an F (32nd overall). Deshaun Watson and Bryce Young are the only qualifying quarterbacks to rank below Richardson in QB+.
Possible Landing Spots for Richardson
Las Vegas Raiders
- Raiders Get: Anthony Richardson, 2026 fourth-round pick
- Colts Get: 2025 third-round pick, 2025 fourth-round pick, 2026 conditional third-round pick
The Las Vegas Raiders are in perpetual search for a franchise quarterback. As a result of the Davante Adams trade, the Raiders have an extra third-round pick and could flip one of them for Richardson while still maintaining draft capital.
Any trade involving Richardson would likely include a conditional pick based on playing time and performance. Assuming Las Vegas intends to start Richardson in 2025, there could be a conditional 2026 pick swap that could elevate from a third-round selection to a second-rounder if he hits certain benchmarks.
In this scenario, the Raiders would likely move on from Aidan O’Connell after the season. Yet, they could keep Gardner Minshew II (signed through 2025) as Richardson’s backup for next season.
Cleveland Browns
- Browns Get: Anthony Richardson
- Colts Get: 2025 third-round pick, 2026 conditional third-round pick
The framework of a trade with the Cleveland Browns would look similar to a Raiders trade. Like Las Vegas, Cleveland has an extra third-round pick as the result of a wide receiver trade (Amari Cooper to the Buffalo Bills).
Given that the Browns will likely incur a historically large dead cap hit for Deshaun Watson, Cleveland could look to push some of its draft compensation for Richardson to 2026. The Browns will need a bevy of cost-controlled rookie contract players simply to fill out a cap-compliant roster, so they may want to keep some immediate draft picks in tow.
Still, the need for a quarterback in Cleveland is as glaring as any. Having Richardson on a rookie deal for two seasons before deciding on his fifth-year option would be a nice pivot point for Kevin Stefanski in the wake of the Watson disaster.
New York Giants
- Giants Get: Anthony Richardson
- Colts Get: 2025 third-round pick, 2026 conditional fifth-round pick
The Colts may prefer to send Richardson to the NFC in the end. The New York Giants would make a lot of sense as a team that will almost certainly be in the QB market this offseason, and they can save a little over $19 million in cap space by releasing Daniel Jones after the season.
The price for an NFC team to acquire Richardson might be slightly less compared to an AFC team. And if Brian Daboll survives the 2024 season, his experience developing a raw accuracy-challenged quarterback in Josh Allen could translate to working with Richardson.