Today’s three-game slate means there are plenty of player prop bets to be made, especially for those of you not interested in making ATS picks with the large point spreads today.
The PFN Betting team has NFL Thanksgiving player prop bets for each of the three games today, with picks for notable players such as Jahmyr Gibbs, CeeDee Lamb, and Christian McCaffrey, to name a few.
NFL Thanksgiving Player Prop Bets
Jordan Love Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: In his first full season as a starting quarterback, Jordan Love has started to make some strides in his development after a rough start in the beginning.
- Jordan Love Weeks 1-6:
- EPA/play (expected points added): 0.038 (17th)
- CPOE (completion percentage over expected): -7.1 (32nd)
- Jordan Love Weeks 7-11:
- EPA/play: 0.121 (11th)
- CPOE: 1.4 (13th)
With the Packers being underdogs of more than a touchdown, the game script should be in our favor here as well, much like their Week 4 matchup when the Lions won 34-20. In that game, Love went 23-36 for 246 passing yards.
AJ Dillon Under 52.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: Before sportsbooks released a line, I said to myself I was looking for something around 48.5 to take the under. When I saw 52.5, I had to pounce.
AJ Dillon carried the ball five times for 11 yards in the Packers’ last game against the Lions. While Aaron Jones did play in that game, Dillon was the lead back as Jones was returning too soon from a hamstring strain.
This line is inflated because Dillon is likely to see an 80% snap share on Thursday, with Jones out and the two backs behind Dillon guys who weren’t even on the team last week. We will use that to our advantage.
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Dillon may see increased volume, but let’s not act like he will do much with it. He’s averaging a career-low 3.5 yards per carry. The Lions allow just 62 rushing yards per game to running backs, and their 3.5 ypc allowed is the second-lowest in the league.
Add in the fact that the Packers are road underdogs and likely to be trailing, thus throwing, and we have a situation where Dillon is not going to get a chance to have a big day on the ground. If he breaks loose for a long run and this loses, so be it. That’s the only way I see it going over.
Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: The Packers are very bad against the run. They allow 105 rushing yards per game, the seventh-most in the league. Jahmyr Gibbs is very good at running the football. He is averaging an impressive 5.2 yards per carry this season.
Last week, Gibbs only saw eight carries, largely because the Lions faced a negative game script for most of the game. At home, the Lions should see a much more favorable game script this week.
When these teams last met, David Montgomery ran all over the Packers, carrying the ball 32 times for 121 yards. If things go according to plan, the Lions will run the ball 30+ times again. Except this time, Gibbs will see plenty of work himself. That should give him plenty of opportunities to rip off a big gain.
Gibbs has nine carries of 14+ yards this season. He has one in six different games. He’s only played in eight games this season. Against the Packers’ porous run defense, Gibbs should have no trouble breaking off a long one. He’ll probably do it more than once.
Christian Watson Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: I know the Lions are a pass-funnel defense. I also know Dontayvion Wicks is out. But are we serious about this line?
Christian Watson has gone over this number exactly once all season, and he only did so on a busted coverage 77-yard catch and run.
Watson’s 16% target share on the season is 57th in the league. He is not an every-down player, with just a 77% snap share, and he only runs a route on 84% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks.
Most importantly, Watson is one of the least talented wide receivers in the NFL. He has terrible hands, and he cannot separate…at all. The man is never open. There’s a reason Watson is consistently outplayed and out-targeted by Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Wicks.
I think this line is inflated because Wicks and Luke Musgrave are out. I just don’t think that will funnel more targets toward Watson.
There is, of course, a chance Watson catches a long one, and this loses quickly. But that’s only happened once all season. I will bank on history repeating itself.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 81.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: Amon-Ra St. Brown has been on an absolute tear this season, with 100 or more receiving yards in 6/9 games. One of those games was against the Packers on a short week, just like today’s game, in which he had his lowest receiving total of the season with just 56 yards.
For his career, St. Brown hasn’t had much success against the Packers. In three games dating back to last season, he has averaged just 53.33 yards per game against Green Bay. Standout Packers DB Jaire Alexander could be out again today, but he was inactive for their last meeting when St. Brown went way under this number.
Khalif Raymond Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Soppe: When Detroit has the ball, we’ve seen them make a conscious effort to keep Jameson Williams on the field lately. The burner was on the field for 81.4% of three-receiver sets (next to Josh Reynolds and Amon-Ra St. Brown) last week, a role that has been on the rise of late.
That keeps Kalif Raymond on the sideline and limits his opportunity count. With his snaps dwindling, not to mention Jahmyr Gibbs seeing 11 targets in the two games since David Montgomery returned, the volume of expectation is very low.
Combine him trending out of favor on this offense with potential game script concerns, and we could be looking at a goose egg from Raymond. Of course, if this game is one-sided, we are at risk of a garbage time catch with the reserves, but if you aren’t sweating late Lion pass attempts to WR4s, is it even Thanksgiving?
Sam Howell Over 25.5 Completions (-120 at DraftKings)
Soppe: We are 11 weeks into the NFL season, and we know exactly what the Commanders want to do: throw the rock. They’ve been a top-five offense in pass rate over expectation for a month now, and it’s difficult to envision that changing any time soon.
With that in mind and a big spread where the pass expectation is going to be high anyway, why not target volume-oriented props tied to Sam Howell? Given this total, we expect there to be some points put on the board. In games this season when there are over 40 total points scores, Howell is completing 32 passes per game.
Brian Robinson Jr. Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: The Dallas Cowboys undoubtedly have one of the best defenses in the league. But man, 38.5 is just really low.
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Brian Robinson has run quite well this season. He’s gone over this number in seven of his 11 games and landed exactly on 38 once. Even in a negative game script last week, Robinson saw 17 carries.
The Cowboys completely blew out the Panthers last week. Yet, both Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders sailed over their rushing yardage lines.
Even with the Cowboys likely to control the game against the Commanders, Robinson should still be a safe bet for 10-12 carries. That should be enough to get him to 40+ rushing yards.
Logan Thomas Over 4.5 Receptions (+124 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Over Washington’s past five losses, Logan Thomas is averaging 5.8 receptions per game. Since the beginning of October, the big tight end has hauled in 78.7% of his targets, a level of efficiency that leads to elite catch volume, given the style of this offense. The Cowboys also own the ninth-lowest opponent aDOT, as they ask opposing offenses to take their medicine down the field – works for me!
Dak Prescott Under 0.5 Interceptions (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: After throwing a career-high 15 interceptions in just 12 games last season, Dak Prescott has thrown only six in 10 games so far this season, as his INT% of 1.8 is two percent lower than last year’s and more in line with his career average.
For the season, only six teams have fewer interceptions than the Commanders. With their 23rd-ranked pass rush and 30th-ranked pass defense, Dak should have an easy day throwing the football and not forced into throwing any interceptions.
Tony Pollard Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: This feels like an inflated line because the Cowboys are heavy favorites. Tony Pollard rushed for at least 65 yards for three weeks in a row to start the season but hasn’t gone over this rushing total since.
That includes four blowout wins, most recently against the Giants and Panthers in the previous two games.
Game script also might not even be a concern here, given the Cowboys’ recent history on Thanksgiving. With Dak Prescott as starting quarterback, the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS on Thanksgiving.
CeeDee Lamb Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Bearman: Going back to the well here. I’ve played the over on player props for WR1s against the Commanders since Week 3, and they hit in eight consecutive weeks. This streak came to an end last week when I picked the wrong Giants wide receiver, but had I taken Darius Slayton, we would be looking at nine straight winners and counting.
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There is no reason not to run this back with one of the best wide receivers in the game CeeDee Lamb. This line might be high, but that didn’t stop me from taking A.J. Brown to go over 93.5 receiving yards a couple of weeks ago, who finished the day with 130.
Lamb is averaging 101.3 yards per game, which is higher than this line.
Brock Purdy Under 9.5 Rushing Yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Brock Purdy is coming off of a perfect passer rating performance, a game in which he checked every box and was in control throughout. His path to success is quick and accurate decision-making, allowing his elite quartet of playmakers to get the ball in space and make plays.
It is not to threaten defenses with his legs. If we remove a pair of games against the top two defenses in terms of blitz rate this season, Purdy has given us single-digit rushing totals in six of eight games (one of those outlier performances came in a game with Deebo Samuel sidelined, something that won’t be the case tonight).
The Seahawks rank 24th in blitz rate through 11 weeks, and due to my belief that this game could be dominated by the road team, kneel-downs could well work in our favor if this leg of the SGP is in doubt late.
Christian McCaffrey Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: The Seahawks are allowing their opponents to average 5.5 yards per carry over their last three games, tied for the worst in the NFL. During this stretch, they’re also last in EPA in stopping the run by a significant margin — the gap between them and 31st is greater than 31st and 27th.
Now, they have Christian McCaffrey coming to town, who has gone over this rushing total in all but one game this season in which the 49ers offense is completely healthy. The one time this season when McCaffrey was held under 76 rushing yards was in a 32-point win against Dallas when he was limited to 2.7 yards per carry — I’m not counting on that happening today.
George Kittle Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: George Kittle has been on a tear recently, with 89 receiving yards last week and 116 the week before that. But last week’s nine targets were a bit of an anomaly, as he was averaging just 4.5 targets per game with both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in the lineup up until that point. Additionally, 66 of his 116 receiving yards two weeks ago against the Jaguars came from one touchdown.
Kittle’s usage is fairly inconsistent, and when the 49ers are at full strength, it’s a safer bet to assume he will be squeezed out of the game plan than be prominently featured. He’s not a high-volume weapon and is fairly dependent on big plays, making me like him under here after two big games in a row.
Tyler Lockett Longest Reception Under 19.5 Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: There is a lot to like with this player prop today. For one, Geno Smith will be playing banged up on a short week against an elite defense, so I’m not expecting him to be very effective today. Secondly, even when Geno is completely healthy, he has had a hard time connecting with Tyler Lockett on big passing plays this season.
Lockett has 17 deep passing targets (20 or more yards) this season, which is tied for 10th-best according to Pro Football Focus. Of the players in the top 20, he has caught the lowest percentage of his deep targets at just 17.6%.
This season, Lockett has only caught a pass for 20 or more yards in three of 10 games, with two of them coming against the Commanders and Giants.
Zach Charbonnet Under 76.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: I must admit I went back and forth on this for a while before making it an official play. I like Charbonnet a lot as a player. But this is such a high number.
Only three running backs have gone over this number against the 49ers all season. Last week, Charbonnet saw an 85% snap share and played reasonably well but still totaled just 69 yards.
I am not fully fading Charbonnet on Thursday night. I think he will be effective. But he can both play well and not reach 70 total yards. Something like 12 carries for 50 yards, plus three catches for 20 yards and a touchdown mixed in, is a nice performance. It also still keeps Charbonnet under this number.
Sam LaPorta 4 Receptions, Jaxon Smith-Njigba 3 Receptions Parlay (-110 at PointsBet)
Katz: On Monday night, I liked the prop parlay of Justin Watson’s 2 receptions and DeVonta Smith’s 5 receptions, but I couldn’t find a book that offered both alternate lines. For Thanksgiving, I was eyeing up this one on Tuesday but feared the same plight. Fortunately, PointsBet came through with both.
Sam LaPorta only caught three passes last week. Before that, he caught at least four balls in four straight games. On the season, he’s only failed to reach four receptions twice. He had exactly four when these teams last met in Week 4.
As for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, he’s seen a recent uptick in volume. Since Week 4, JSN has caught at least three catches in every game. Plus, the 49ers not only struggle more against the pass than the run, but they specifically have not done well defending screens. The Seahawks have run multiple screens to JSN over the past few weeks.
If you don’t have PointsBet, this builds to -112 on FanDuel, which is perfectly fine.
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