NFL survivor pool Week 1 is here! Just like in the NFL, sometimes victory or defeat comes down to one play. Heading into the season’s opening week, how should we strategize with an eye toward the rest of the season? Because “winging it” usually doesn’t get the job done. So let’s talk survivor pool NFL betting strategy and optimal team picks.
NFL survivor pool Week 1 strategy
Picking one team that is a virtual certainty to win each week sounds easy in theory. However, most NFL survivor pool rules dictate that you can’t select the same team twice.
[bet-promo id=”149453″ ]Sometimes it’s best to lock in a nearly guaranteed win. Other times it’s better to take a chance in order to preserve safer options for later. Here are my two favorite picks, with context.
Titans vs. Giants
Strategy, strategy, strategy. Did I mention strategy? Picking the Titans this week is somewhat bold, even against a reeling Giants squad that realistically could lose 12+ games this season. After all, Derrick Henry, Treylon Burks, and Robert Woods are all coming off serious injuries. Ryan Tannehill didn’t play his best football last season. Will he produce?
But Tennessee has a relatively brutal schedule (a big reason why I believe Malik Willis will take over later this year). Believe it or not, the Giants might be one of their two “easiest” opponents, with the Texans in Week 16 also looking like a W. Should we wait until December to start the Titans?
Not a chance because four other teams have beautiful home matchups in Week 16. If we’re going to take Tennessee, this is the week to do it. I’m expecting Derrick Henry and Co. to overwhelm New York by at least 10 points. This is my No. 1 pick of Week 1, as it sets us up in the short term and long term.
Ravens at Jets
This is a secondary option because my rule of thumb in survivor pools is to avoid starting road teams whenever possible. Historically, home teams win roughly 55%-60% of the time. There aren’t many logical reasons to pick a road team unless there are no decent home options to choose from.
That said, if you want to roll the dice, Baltimore’s matchup looks as promising as any. This will be a statement game after failing to reach the playoffs last season following an 8-3 start. On paper, the Ravens have the firepower to handle a (gradually) ascending Jets team comfortably.
One of the appears of starting Baltimore is that their best remaining matchups include Week 7 (vs. Cleveland), Week 11 (vs. Carolina), and Week 16 (vs. Atlanta). All three of those contests will be at home. But there are other teams those weeks with comparably favorable matchups.
So if we save Baltimore for later, it should be because we plan to use them in one of those games. If not, then there’s always Week 17 at home against the Steelers. But I’m saving a much better matchup for Week 17 — if we get that far.