Are you scouring the Internet or your cupboards for an ideal Week 9 pick for your NFL survivor pool? Winging it usually doesn’t get the job done. So, how should we strategize with an eye toward the rest of the season? Let’s talk survivor pool NFL betting strategy and optimal team picks.
NFL Week 9 Survivor Pool
Picking one team that is a virtual certainty to win each week sounds easy in theory. However, most NFL survivor pool rules dictate that you can’t select the same team twice.
Sometimes it’s best to lock in a nearly guaranteed win. Other times it’s better to take a chance to preserve safer options for later. Here’s my favorite Week 9 pick (with context), and a couple of backup options.
Last Week’s Recommendations
Based on strong Week 8 matchups and a lack of remaining “great” home matchups, last week, I recommended the Cowboys “crushing” the Bears. Or “obliterating.” Or something along those lines. In reality, Chicago hung closer much longer than I anticipated. But in the end, Dallas’s high-functioning offense and often stellar defense were too much for the Bears to overcome.
Interestingly, Dallas scored 49 points despite missing Ezekiel Elliott and strong No. 3 WR Noah Brown. Some might argue they scored 49 because Elliott was out. On the one hand, that might not be fair. On the other hand, fair is fair. Tony Pollard has largely outplayed Elliott in the past year and a half. Betting on the Cowboys with Pollard at the helm seems like a safer bet.
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Also interestingly, in Prescott’s last 34 regular-season starts, Dallas has scored 35+ points 16 times, or 47% of the time. Even more interestingly (yes, it’s more interesting), Dallas has hit 35+ points in 12 of 19 home games.
I was bullish about Dallas in survivor for more reasons than I could catalogue. But a Dak Prescott-led offense at home against an overachieving team coming off a shocking road victory on Monday night was too favorable to pass up.
Meanwhile, my “backups” went 1-1, with the Colts falling to the Commanders in the final minute, while the Vikings largely outplayed the Cards, though credit Arizona for keeping it close.
Week 9 Survivor Pool Plays | Bengals vs. Panthers
As some of you know, I’ve been picking a different primary survivor team each week. No double-dipping. Each selection is based on maximizing short-term probabilities of success, while also capitalizing on long-term flexibility.
As a result, my favorite Week 9 play is the Bengals at home versus the Panthers. Even without Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati has enough firepower to overwhelm Carolina and the heroic play of D’Onta Foreman and DJ Moore. The fact is, I expect the Bengals to come prepared to shut down one or the other.
My belief is that Cincinnati will force the largely inexperienced PJ Walker to beat them through the air, where the Bengals have done a great job containing opposing QBs (average 5.9 yards per attempt through Week 7, which was sixth-best in the league).
And the Panthers might not have a choice, assuming the Bengals’ mostly functional offense forces Carolina into catch-up mode. Foreman has dominated, in part, because of favorable or neutral game scripts the past two weeks. This past weekend, Walker completed 53% of his passes against the league’s worst pass defense. Things won’t get easier in Cincinnati.
Why take the Bengals this week? Because of an unfavorable remaining schedule: @Steelers, @Titans, Chiefs, Browns (vs. Deshaun Watson), @Buccaneers, @Patriots, Bills, Ravens.
Perhaps we could save Cincy for Tennessee, although some of you know how I feel about using survivor picks on road teams (lower-probability success). Or we might roll the dice against Cleveland, although the Browns presumably would be much tougher at that stage of the season with Watson at the helm.
So this is the time to strike. The Bengals are primed for a comfortable win. At worst, Carolina will stay close into the third quarter before the Bengals break through. While nothing is guaranteed or even “safe,” this is the survivor bet I’d make based on the picks I’ve already made.
Bills at Jets
If you want backup options, I’ve got backup options. Hey, we all need backup options. No Lean Cuisines left in the freezer? Then it’s another Marie Callender dinner and Perry Mason marathon for us. Good times.
The Jets were one player short of a potential victory over the Patriots in Week 8. That player? You guessed it: Breece Hall. We could and should credit New England for rebounding after their brutal home loss to Chicago last Monday night. Yet, the Jets offered surprisingly little resistance, except for a renewed commitment to rookie Garrett Wilson.
Buffalo’s elite defense could get star cornerback Tre’Davious White back for this one. Even if they don’t, I’d be shocked if New York scores more than 14 points. Meanwhile, the NFL’s second-highest-scoring team (talking about the Bills, clearly) should hit their 29-point average.
MORE: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings
Why not recommend Buffalo as the primary Week 9 survivor play? Because they have several great matchups remaining, including the Browns at home (Week 11), the Jets at home (Week 14), and even the Bears on the road (Week 16).
When in doubt, save great teams with many favorable contests remaining, especially if some of those matchups will be at home. If you’re down to two people in your survivor league, and your buddy still has the Bills, it might be tempting to hedge in case s/he takes them too.
But I wouldn’t do it. Let them burn their best available option, and then leave them squirming to come up with safer picks later (hint: there won’t be many better picks later).
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
This might seem like an odd suggestion. Seattle’s two games up on Arizona in the NFC West, and the Seahawks won their last meeting in Week 6, 19-9.
But let’s add some perspective. In Kyler Murray’s 54 career NFL starts, he’s had only one TD-less performance with fewer than 250 yards and 2+ turnovers. What game was that? That’s right: three weeks ago against Seattle.
The notion that Arizona will collapse offensively again borders on absurd. The Seahawks’ improved defense is still yielding the seventh-most points in the league. Murray actually ran wild against them, rushing for 100 yards for only the second time in his career.
The problem? The Cardinals came up empty in two first-quarter red-zone appearances, including reaching the 1-yard line. Later they reached Seattle’s 27-yard line and turned it over on downs. On their next possession, Murray lost a fumble inside the Seahawks’ 40. Still later, a stalled drive reached Seattle’s 22.
The box score shows nine points for Arizona. But we have to look deeper when assessing players’ and teams’ chances going forward. Arizona left a dozen or more points on the field. They are better than their 3-5 record. Timely execution — or a lack thereof — has been their undoing. If you don’t want to take the Bengals or Bills, I’d recommend betting on a rebound for the Cardinals.