Normally when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs lose to a team three games below .500 in the early portion of the season, it swiftly eliminates a large portion of your survivor-league competition. However, less than 5% of survivor players were eliminated by the big upset from the Denver Broncos last week.
If you’re still reading this article, then allow me to be the first to congratulate you on advancing to November in your survivor league! Now it’s time to dig in and formulate our survivor-league strategy for the back half of the season, starting with Week 9.
NFL Survivor Picks Strategy for Week 9
Survivor-league players got a bit of a reprieve last week with all 32 teams in action but will once again face the challenge of navigating four teams on a bye in Week 9 with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers, and Denver Broncos unavailable to select.
Many survivor-league players have managed to get to this point by simply picking a double-digit favorite every week. However, those savvy survivor players who have advanced into November by finding a way to go against the chalk every week have them in an advantageous position as we approach the back half of the NFL season.
This is evident by the seven teams that were selected by the majority of survivor-league players to start the 2023 season.
The 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Chargers have been the most popular picks through the first eight weeks of the season.
As mentioned in previous entries, I don’t have any concrete rules when selecting games, but I do have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games.
- Avoid picking road teams.
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast.
As we enter November, things like bad weather could start playing a much bigger role in which direction we would like to go for our weekly selection.
As previously mentioned, some of the biggest favorites over the last seven weeks have been the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks, and Chargers. This means we can’t turn to the likes of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, or a stacked 49ers roster when we get into a pinch later in the season.
MORE: NFL Week 9 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
Since these were the most selected teams each week by survivor-league players — according to survivorgrid.com data — I will be excluding them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your survivor scenario situation for the week.
If you have any additional survivor questions specific to your league, don’t hesitate to follow me on Twitter @DerekTateNFL to send me a message or join our Discord channel, so we can talk on that platform.
Teams No Longer Available To Select
Week 1: Baltimore Ravens (Selected by 32% of survivor-league teams)
Week 2: Buffalo Bills (Selected by 26% of teams)
Week 3: Kansas City Chiefs (Selected by 21% of teams)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (Selected by 31% of teams)
Week 5: Miami Dolphins (Selected by 39% of teams)
Week 6: Los Angeles Rams (Selected by 17% of teams)
Week 7: Seattle Seahawks (Selected by 55% of teams)
Week 8: Los Angeles Chargers (Selected by 35% of teams)
This is where identifying teams who aren’t necessarily the biggest favorite of the week can strongly benefit you as we move into the holiday season.
The fact that some of the biggest Super Bowl contenders in the league are unavailable for the rest of the season will start presenting some very big challenges once we get to the back half of the season.
For now, though, we still have the Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dallas Cowboys, and Detroit Lions available, who have plenty of future value to rely on in the next month of NFL action.
Strategy 1
Week 9: New Orleans Saints (vs. CHI)
Week 10: Atlanta Falcons (@ ARI)
Week 11: Dallas Cowboys (@ CAR)
Week 12: Tennessee Titans (vs. CAR)
Top teams still available: PHI, JAX, CLE, DET
Strategy 2
Week 9: Cleveland Browns (vs. ARI)
Week 10: Cincinnati Bengals (vs. HOU)
Week 11: Detroit Lions (vs. CHI)
Week 12: Tennessee Titans (vs. CAR)
Top teams still available: PHI, DAL, JAX
It’s always important to keep updating your strategy once we get new information. For example, if you like to simply trail a bad team to play against every week, I suggest pivoting to the Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, and Arizona Cardinals.
Recent injuries to starting quarterbacks could also make teams like the Minnesota Vikings and Rams some intriguing teams to pick against in the coming weeks.
Chalk Picks
Through the first seven weeks of the NFL season, I’ve gone 14-2 with my chalk selections, which included a 2-0 record in Week 8 with the Ravens and Lions handling their business.
Here’s a look at some of the chalkiest picks for Week 9, according to Numberfire.com.
Let’s take a look at my favorite chalk selections heading into Week 9.
New Orleans Saints (vs. CHI)
The New Orleans Saints continue to take us on a wild roller-coaster ride throughout the year. Derek Carr is coming off of one of his best performances in a Saints uniform, with 310 yards and two scores through the air against the Indianapolis Colts.
Can we definitively say the Saints’ offense has turned the corner? Probably not yet, but this outing certainly feels like one the offense can build off of moving forward.
The Bears’ defense has given up some big performances through the air, and they still have backup rookie QB Tyson Bagent in a starting role heading down to the Big Easy. With Bagent under center, he certainly could experience his fair share of struggles against a solid defensive unit.
Look for New Orleans to handle their business at home against a Chicago offense that is still a work in progress.
Atlanta Falcons (vs. MIN)
The Falcons just got torched by Titans rookie quarterback Will Levis to the tune of 238 yards and four scores through the air, which has to be pretty embarrassing for this unit. Well, they are likely to get a mulligan in Week 9, with the Vikings expected to have rookie Jaren Hall make his NFL starting debut after Kirk Cousins suffered a torn Achilles on Sunday.
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It would be hard to imagine the Falcons getting dissected by a rookie signal-caller for a second consecutive week, but it’s the offense that should have some level of success against Minnesota’s defense.
What is interesting is that Falcons QB Desmond Ridder cleared concussion protocol but was kept out of the game in favor of Taylor Heinicke. Either way, Atlanta should have enough offense in this contest to put the rookie QB in a tough situation on the road in his first NFL start.
Contrarian Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ HOU)
The Buccaneers have dropped three straight games, but two of them came against teams who are in the Super Bowl contender conversation through the first half of the 2023 season. Baker Mayfield hasn’t played great this season, but he certainly played well enough against Buffalo to give the team a chance to win.
As for the other side of the ball, the Texans’ offense has stalled a bit after a hot start. C.J. Stroud could see a handful of exotic blitz looks from Todd Bowles in this contest, which means Houston’s wide receivers are going to have to win against Tampa’s secondary.
They’ll make their handful of plays, but I expect the Bucs’ defense to shut down Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary in the running game and force Stroud to beat them. I also expect Tampa Bay’s defense to bounce back after a rough performance against the Bills.
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