Upsets to the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles did manage to eliminate 10.1% of survivor-league players, but the majority of players did manage to select a winning team and advance to Week 7.
If you’re here reading this NFL Survivor Picks Week 7 article, that probably means you managed to advance, so congratulations. What is your reward? Six teams are unavailable for selection due to bye weeks, of course. That means it’s time to dig in and formulate our strategy with my survivor picks for Week 7.
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NFL Survivor Picks Strategy for Week 7
With the Eagles and 49ers both losing on Sunday, there are officially no undefeated teams remaining in the league. On the flip side, the Carolina Panthers are the only team who are still winless heading into Week 7.
Many survivor-league players have managed to get to this point by simply picking the biggest favorite on a weekly basis, but some savvy players have arrived at this point by going against the chalk every week, which allows you to keep many of the top-tier teams available to select in November and December. However, the vast majority of competitors this season appear to be playing it safe with their weekly selections.
This is evident by the six teams who were selected by the majority of Survivor League players to start the 2023 season.
The Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, and Los Angeles Rams have been the most popular picks through the first six weeks of the NFL season.
It’s no coincidence that these six teams were among the biggest favorites of the last six weeks.
MORE: Early NFL Week 7 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
As mentioned in previous entries, I don’t have any concrete rules when selecting games, but I do have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games.
- Avoid picking road teams.
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast.
Sometimes, things like bad weather can’t be avoided if half of the Sunday slate is dealing with terrible playing conditions. However, it could help make things a bit less unpredictable when trying to make your weekly selection.
As previously mentioned, the biggest favorites over the last five weeks have been the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, Dolphins, and Rams. This means we can’t turn to the likes of QBs Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagavailoa, Matthew Stafford, or a stacked 49ers roster when we get into a pinch later in the season.
Since these were the most selected teams in each week by survivor-league players — according to survivorgrid.com data — I will be excluding them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your survivor scenario situation for the week.
If you have any additional survivor questions specific to your league, don’t hesitate to follow me on Twitter @DerekTateNFL to send me a message or join our Discord channel, so we can talk on that platform.
Teams No Longer Available To Select
Week 1: Baltimore Ravens (Selected by 32% of survivor-league teams)
Week 2: Buffalo Bills (Selected by 26% of teams)
Week 3: Kansas City Chiefs (Selected by 21% of teams)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (Selected by 31% of teams)
Week 5: Miami Dolphins (Selected by 39% of teams)
Week 6: Los Angeles Rams (Selected by 17% of teams)
This is where identifying teams who aren’t necessarily the biggest favorite of the week can strongly benefit you as the season progresses. After all, bye weeks are officially underway.
MORE: NFL Betting Trends and Recap Week 6
The fact that we have five of the biggest Super Bowl contenders in the league unavailable for the rest of the season will start presenting some very big challenges once we get to the back half of the season.
For now, though, we still have the Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, and Seattle Seahawks available, who have plenty of future value to rely on in the next month of NFL action.
Strategy 1
Week 7: Las Vegas Raiders (@ CHI)
Week 8: Detroit Lions (vs. LV)
Week 9: Los Angeles Chargers (@ NYJ)
Week 10: Atlanta Falcons (@ ARI)
Top teams still available: PHI, DAL, JAX, CLE, TB, SEA
Strategy 2
Week 7: Seattle Seahawks (vs. ARI)
Week 8: Los Angeles Chargers (vs. CHI)
Week 9: Cleveland Browns (vs. ARI)
Week 10: Cincinnati Bengals (vs. HOU)
Top teams still available: PHI, DAL, JAX, TB, DET
It’s always important to keep updating your strategy once we get new information. For example, if you like to simply trail a bad team to play against every week, I suggest pivoting to the Chicago Bears while Justin Fields is out of the lineup, the Carolina Panthers, the New England Patriots, or the New York Giants.
Chalk Picks
Through the first five weeks of the NFL season, I’ve gone 11-1 with my chalk selections, which included a 2-0 record last week with the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills barely managing to handle their business in Week 6.
Here’s a look at some of the chalkiest picks for Week 7, according to Numberfire.com.
Let’s take a look at my favorite chalk selections heading into Week 7.
Buffalo Bills (@ NE)
Normally, I like to steer clear of divisional games. But occasionally, I’ll see a matchup where the scale is heavily leaning in one direction, and I’ll take the bait.
The Patriots’ offense continues to be one of the toughest units to watch this season. They don’t do any one particular thing well and have a quarterback who is sitting on a seat so hot, that it’s practically already in flames. QB Josh Allen has won three straight games against the Patriots, and he has thrown eight touchdown passes to just one interception during that stretch.
MORE: Updated First NFL Head Coach Fired Odds
Now, I would highly recommend monitoring Allen’s shoulder injury this week. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott said Allen is day-to-day with the injury.
If Allen is unable to go, I will likely go with one of the other selections below. If Allen is good to go, though, I just don’t see a scenario where the Patriots’ offense is capable of scoring enough points against the third-best scoring defense in the league to keep pace with Allen and the Bills offense.
Seattle Seahawks (vs. ARI)
Normally, I like to steer clear of divisional games — wait, did I hear an echo?
The Seahawks are coming off of a tough loss at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals. QB Geno Smith and the Seattle offense had plenty of chances late in the game to find a go-ahead score, but they couldn’t quite get the job done.
This week, they’ll face off against an Arizona Cardinals team that looked far more like the team we expected heading into the season over the last two games.
The Cardinals gave up 158 yards on the ground to Rams RB Kyren Williams in Week 6, which means Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker could be in for a very big day.
Not to mention, this defense has looked far more formidable over the last few weeks by giving up just 20 points over a two-game span. The return of safety Jamal Adams and the emergence of CB Devon Witherspoon have made this unit even more physical and could give Arizona QB Joshua Dobbs issues at home in front of a raucous crowd.
Contrarian Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (@ CHI)
It can be a bit difficult to project how this game will play out without knowing exactly who the starting quarterback will be for either team heading into this matchup at Soldier Field.
Still, the Week 7 outlook for Las Vegas Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo looks far more favorable than the one for Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields.
If Garoppolo is active on Sunday, then I’m very comfortable picking the Raiders this week. If backup Brian Hoyer gets the start, then I’m still more confident in him than I am with Tyson Bagent as my starting quarterback.
Hoyer completed six passes for 102 yards in relief duties in a win against the Patriots, while Bagent threw a terrible pick to seal the fate of the Bears against the Minnesota Vikings.
I can also see the Raiders being able to generate more points by leaning on RB Josh Jacobs and finding enough plays through the air to WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers to get this win on the road.