The biggest favorites heading into the Week 5 slate helped a whopping 77.4% of survivor players advance to a sixth game in their league.
Well, the weekly selection of teams is only getting thinner and thinner moving forward because of bye weeks starting across the league, which means it’s time to lock in and formulate our strategy with my survivor picks for Week 6.
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.
NFL Survivor Picks Strategy for Week 6
If you have made it this far, allow me to start by saying congratulations! Now, the real challenge begins.
The first five weeks of the 2023 NFL season have given us a few surprises, but many survivor league players have managed to get to this point by simply picking the biggest favorite on a weekly basis.
Some savvy survivor league players like to go against the chalk every week — which allows you to keep many of the top-tier teams available to select into October, November, and December. But the vast majority of competitors this season appear to be playing it safe.
This is evident by the five teams who were selected by the majority of survivor league players to start the 2023 season.
The Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and Miami Dolphins have been the most popular picks through the first five weeks of the NFL season.
It is no coincidence that these five teams were among the biggest favorites of the last five weeks.
As mentioned in previous entries, I don’t have any concrete rules when selecting games, but I do have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games.
- Avoid picking road teams.
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast.
Sometimes, things like bad weather can’t be avoided if half of the Sunday slate is dealing with terrible playing conditions. However, it could help make things a bit less unpredictable when trying to make your weekly selection.
As previously mentioned, the biggest favorites over the last five weeks have been the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, and Dolphins. This means we can’t turn to the likes of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagavailoa, or a stacked 49ers roster when we get into a pinch later in the season.
MORE: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings
Since these were the most selected teams in each week by survivor league players — according to survivorgrid.com data — I will be excluding them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your survivor scenario situation for the week.
If you have any additional survivor questions specific to your league, please don’t hesitate to follow me on Twitter @DerekTateNFL to send me a message or join our Discord channel, so we can talk on that platform.
Teams No Longer Available To Select
Week 1: Baltimore Ravens (Selected by 32% of survivor league teams)
Week 2: Buffalo Bills (Selected by 26% of survivor league teams)
Week 3: Kansas City Chiefs (Selected by 21% of survivor league teams)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (Selected by 31% of survivor league teams)
Week 5: Miami Dolphins (Selected by 39% of survivor league teams)
This is where identifying teams who aren’t necessarily the biggest favorite of the week can strongly benefit you as the season progresses. After all, bye weeks are officially underway!
The fact that we have five of the biggest Super Bowl contenders in the league unavailable for the rest of the season will start presenting some very big challenges once we get to the back half of the season.
For now, though, we still have the Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, and Seattle Seahawks available, who have plenty of future value to rely on in the next month of NFL action.
Strategy 1
Week 6: Los Angeles Rams (vs. ARI)
Week 7: Las Vegas Raiders (@ CHI)
Week 8: Detroit Lions (vs. LV)
Week 9: Los Angeles Chargers (@ NYJ)
Top teams still available: PHI, DAL, JAX, CLE, TB, SEA
Strategy 2
Week 6: Philadelphia Eagles (@ NYJ)
Week 7: Los Angeles Rams (vs. PIT)
Week 8: Los Angeles Chargers (vs. CHI)
Week 9: Cleveland Browns (vs. ARI)
Top teams still available: DAL, JAX, TB, SEA
It is always important to keep updating your strategy once we get new information. For example, the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals don’t exactly feel like teams you want to pick on every week.
MORE: NFL International Games 2023
If you like to simply trail a bad team to play against every week, I suggest pivoting to the Chicago Bears, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, or New York Giants if that is the strategy you prefer to go with every week.
Chalk Picks
Through the first five weeks of the NFL season, I have gone 9-1 with my chalk selections, which included a 2-0 record last week with the Dolphins and Lions managing to handle their business in Week 5.
Here’s a look at some of the chalkiest picks for Week 6, according to Numberfire.com.
Let’s investigate my favorite chalk selections heading into Week 6.
Miami Dolphins (vs. CAR)
The Dolphins may be without dynamic running back De’Von Achane for the next few weeks, but luckily they still have plenty of speed to give the Panthers’ defense all kinds of issues in this matchup.
We just saw the Dolphins comfortably lean on the running game after jumping out to a two-possession lead against the struggling Giants offensive unit.
While Panther fans have good cause to be optimistic about rookie quarterback Bryce Young’s three-touchdown performance through the air against the Lions, the Carolina offense is still a work in progress.
They haven’t been able to find a consistent running game, and Miami’s cornerbacks could give the Panther WRs some issues with creating separation consistently in this contest.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
Expect the Dolphins’ high-powered offense to continue to roll and put the rookie quarterback in a deficit he won’t be able to overcome in Week 6.
Buffalo Bills (vs. NYG)
Do you know what the cure is for a disappointing loss in the NFL? Playing the Giants.
This Giants offense has looked completely inept on all fronts through the first five games of the NFL season.
Unfortunately for the New York fan base, they were subjected to a third straight week watching this offense operate without running back Saquon Barkley.
Since Barkley has been out of the lineup, the Giants have managed to generate just one offensive touchdown over the last three games.
Now throw in the fact quarterback Daniel Jones is dealing with a neck injury and it doesn’t exactly feel like there are better days ahead for the New York offense in the immediate future.
The Buffalo Bills are banged up on the defensive side of the football, but I simply don’t think the Giants’ offense is capable of scoring enough points to keep up with the Bills.
Contrarian Pick
New Orleans Saints (@ HOU)
The New Orleans Saints have been a volatile team through the first five games of the NFL season.
Sure, a shoulder injury to quarterback Derek Carr didn’t exactly do the passing offense any favors against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the revolving door at the running back position and inconsistencies in the passing game have made this team tough to predict in 2023.
However, they did just go into New England and shut out the Patriots in Week 5. Quietly, this defense has been a top-five unit on a per-game basis through the first five games of the season, allowing a total of just 274 total yards per game.
This week, they’ll face off against Houston Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who has been called upon to carry the Houston offense with the running game struggling due to multiple injuries to the offensive line.
While Stroud has been excellent through most of his first five starts in the NFL, this could be his toughest test yet. He may have to keep pace with a Saints offense that’s likely eager to face a secondary that just gave up over 300 yards through the air to Desmond Ridder.