There are only four weeks remaining on the 2023 NFL schedule, which likely means you have managed to string together 14 correct selections in your survivor league. That, my friend, is quite an accomplishment.
Allow me to be among the first to congratulate you on getting this far. The unfortunate reality is if you are reading this article, it means the job isn’t done yet.
Now, it’s really time to dig in and take a look at my picks and strategies for your survivor league heading into Week 15.
NFL Survivor Picks Strategy for Week 15
Finally, we have arrived at the point of the NFL season where we no longer have to deal with bye weeks. To quote Clark Griswold from National Lampoon’s Christ Vacation, “Hallelujah! Holy (explicative). Where’s the Tylenol?”
Unfortunately for a second consecutive week, the survivor league casualties of multiple upsets — namely to the Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Houston Texans — watched as their hopes of a survivor league title vanished before their eyes in Week 14. My deepest condolences to any of those poor unfortunate souls reading this article.
The New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Chargers have been the most popular picks through the first 14 weeks of the season and will make selecting a winner over the final four weeks of the 2023 NFL season an even tougher challenge.
As mentioned in previous entries, I don’t have any concrete rules when selecting games, but I do have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games
- Avoid picking road teams
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast
As we move into December, winter weather will start playing a much bigger role in which direction we would like to go for our weekly selection, which should definitely be taken into consideration when making your weekly selection.
As previously mentioned, some of the biggest favorites over the last 14 weeks have been the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks, Saints, Chargers, Browns, Titans, Bucs, and Cowboys. This means we can’t turn to the likes of a handful of Super Bowl contenders (and others) over the final month of the season.
Since these were the most selected teams each week by survivor league players (according to survivorgrid.com data), I will be excluding them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your survivor scenario situation each week.
If you have any additional survivor questions specific to your league, don’t hesitate to follow me on Twitter @DerekTateNFL to send me a message, or join our Discord channel so we can talk on that platform.
Teams No Longer Available To Select
Week 1: Baltimore Ravens (Selected by 32% of survivor league teams)
Week 2: Buffalo Bills (Selected by 26% of teams)
Week 3: Kansas City Chiefs (Selected by 21% of teams)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (Selected by 31% of teams)
Week 5: Miami Dolphins (Selected by 39% of teams)
Week 6: Los Angeles Rams (Selected by 17% of teams)
Week 7: Seattle Seahawks (Selected by 55% of teams)
Week 8: Los Angeles Chargers (Selected by 35% of teams)
Week 9: Cleveland Browns (Selected by 54% of teams)
Week 10: Dallas Cowboys (Selected by 42% of teams)
Week 11: Detroit Lions (Selected by 17% of teams)
Week 12: Tennessee Titans (Selected by 24% of teams)
Week 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Selected by 21% of teams)
Week 14: New Orleans Saints (Selected by 14% of teams)
Seeing that we are deep into the NFL season, we are really starting to run out of teams with a winning record available to even select for the strategy section of this article, but we still have to have a plan just in case your league goes the distance.
This is where identifying teams who aren’t necessarily the biggest favorites of the week will start paying huge dividends as we move into the holiday season.
For now, though, we still have the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars available, who could be crucial to rely on over the final month of the 2023 NFL season.
Strategy 1
Week 15: Atlanta Falcons (@ CAR)
Week 16: Jacksonville Jaguars (@ TB)
Week 17: Philadelphia Eagles (vs. ARI)
Week 18: New York Jets (@ NE)
The strategy portion of your survivor league selections is likely becoming a bit limited because of how far we are into the season, but if you can exploit a backup quarterback or a team that looks as if they have decided to mail it in for the season, then feel free to take advantage of that scenario if the opportunity presents itself.
Chalk Picks
Through the first 14 weeks of the NFL season, I’ve gone 21-7 with my chalk selections. For those of you who are still fortunate enough to have a couple chalk selections to choose from at this point of the season, let’s take a look at a few of my favorites heading into Week 15.
San Francisco 49ers (@ ARI)
I’m deciding to go against my normal rule of picking divisional games based on how well the 49ers have been playing football recently. The Arizona Cardinals have shown some signs of life since QB Kyler Murray returned to the starting lineup, but let’s not fool ourselves… The Cardinals are a bit outmatched heading into this contest.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
49ers QB Brock Purdy has been outstanding since coming out of the bye week, throwing for 1,520 yards and 13 TDs over his last five games.
Expect the Niners to pressure Murray early and often, while San Francisco continues to roll against a Cardinals defense that gives up an average of 25 points per game.
Los Angeles Rams (vs. WAS)
Remember when I mentioned targeting teams who may be mailing it in for the season?
The writing is on the wall for Washington Commanders head coach Ron Rivera being handed his pink slip once this season has concluded.
The defense has been a miss both with or without Jack Del Rio at defensive coordinator. Washington’s pass-happy offense has started to sputter out a bit after a nice run in the middle of the season. And the Commanders’ secondary is among the worst in the league.
When you have secondary issues heading into a matchup against a Rams offense that features Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and a red-hot Matthew Stafford — who has thrown 10 TDs over the last three weeks against some of the league’s best defenses — you have the recipe for a potential blowout in Southern California.
Contrarian Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ GB)
The Bucs are in the thick of the NFC South divisional race and need to pick up a win at Lambeau Field to stay in the hunt. The Green Bay Packers reminded everyone on Monday Night Football that they can’t truly be trusted quite yet with a loss against the New York Giants.
The Bucs’ running game has really hit its stride recently, with RB Rachaad White topping 80 yards rushing in three straight games. The Packers have given up a bunch of big performances on the ground this season, which could be a problem against a running game trending in the right direction.
The Bucs pass defense has struggled for the majority of the season, but the inconsistent play of QB Jordan Love makes it hard to trust he will be able to exploit this vulnerability when he will potentially be without WR Christian Watson.
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