If you’re still alive in your NFL survivor pool entering Week 13, this is one of the more manageable weeks remaining with all 32 teams in action. While you’ll have burned through 12 of those teams, that provides an opportunity to rely on a less shaky favorite.
Looking at the slate, here are three teams that stand out as strong values this week.
All stats courtesy of TruMedia unless otherwise stated. In addition, all lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kansas City Chiefs (-13) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Yes, we know the Kansas City Chiefs have not impressed despite their AFC-best 10-1 record. Eight of the Chiefs’ wins have been by one score, including last week’s narrow escape at the lowly Carolina Panthers.
Still, while it might be tough for the Chiefs to cover a spread this large, as a straight-up proposition, they are the safest bet of Week 13. They’ll be facing the Las Vegas Raiders on a short week amid an uncertain quarterback situation following Gardner Minshew’s season-ending broken collarbone.
Vegas has no good options in this game. They can start Aidan O’Connell playing his first game in over a month following a broken thumb on his throwing hand if they activate and play him immediately off injured reserve. Or they can start Desmond Ridder, who was signed off the Arizona Cardinals’ practice squad in October and has appeared in three games off the bench.
Regardless, their 29th-ranked scoring defense won’t provide much resistance to Patrick Mahomes, who posted a season-high 0.37 EPA per play last week against a similarly hapless Panthers defense. If you’ve saved the two-time defending champs this long, roll with the Chiefs on Black Friday.
Denver Broncos (-5.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Monday night game features the streaking Denver Broncos hosting the three-win Cleveland Browns. While the Browns have a long week after upsetting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night in Week 12, this still profiles as a very strong matchup for Denver.
One of the Browns’ biggest strengths is their defense’s ability to generate pressure. The Myles Garrett-led unit ranks first in pressure rate and fifth in sack rate. However, Bo Nix doesn’t typically hold the ball long enough for pressure to emerge, averaging the sixth-fastest time to throw. As a result, he’s been pressured at the eighth-lowest rate this year.
On the other side, Jameis Winston’s error-prone quarterbacking spells trouble against a sound Broncos defense. Denver allows the third-lowest rate of explosive plays and should be able to suppress the “boom” in Winston’s “boom-or-bust” style.
This is also the best remaining week to use the Broncos if you still have them available. Of Denver’s final four games (the team has a Week 14 bye), a Week 15 home game vs. the Indianapolis Colts is the only one where the Broncos would be clear favorites.
Houston Texans (-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Houston Texans are a confounding team, and it’s completely understandable if you can’t trust the AFC South leaders following their faceplant last week vs. the Tennessee Titans. If they can’t beat a two-win Titans team at home, who’s to say they can beat a two-win Jaguars team on the road?
Still, you probably don’t have many viable options left, and the Texans’ offensive weaknesses could be mitigated in this matchup. For instance, the Texans rank 25th in pressure rate and 26th in sack rate allowed, as they’ve been unable to protect C.J. Stroud for much of the season. However, the Jaguars’ defense ranks only 27th in pressure rate and 28th in sack rate.
Similarly, Houston depends on big plays to sustain their offensive production, which should be viable for this week. The Texans’ offense has the sixth-highest rate of explosive plays, while the Jaguars’ defense has the third-highest rate of explosive plays allowed.
Trusting the Texans on the road with your survivor pool fate is a scary proposition. But just objectively analyzing the matchup, Houston should be able to escape a second consecutive upset loss.