If you’re still alive in your NFL survivor pool entering Week 12, we hope you didn’t pick the Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the last-place Cleveland Browns on Thursday night.
If you avoided that TNF pitfall and still have the opportunity to make it through another week, here are three teams that stand out as strong values on Sunday.
All stats courtesy of TruMedia unless otherwise stated. In addition, all lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Washington Commanders (-10.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Few teams are less threatening than the Dallas Cowboys, who continue to hemorrhage important offensive pieces. Tight end Jake Ferguson (concussion) is out, and Dallas’ two best offensive linemen could be missing as well. Right guard Zack Martin (ankle/shoulder) is doubtful, while left guard Tyler Smith (ankle/knee) is questionable.
All this makes for an extremely juicy spot for a Commanders team playing at home. The offense hasn’t looked the same since Jayden Daniels suffered a rib injury in Week 7, ranking 18th in EPA per play and 15th in PPG since Week 8.
Still, Daniels got a longer stretch of rest following a Thursday night game in Week 11, and the Cowboys’ defense is the perfect antidote to whatever ails him. Dallas is a bottom-five defense in rush defense success rate and has little hope of slowing down a Washington rushing attack that ranks top five in success rate.
Washington does host Tennessee next week and will likely be a similar double-digit favorite. They’ll be in this column again next week, so if you prefer to roll the dice a bit more, the next team here could be a better play for Week 12.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
This line opened with Green Bay as a one-point favorite, but climbed considerably following news that Brock Purdy will miss the game with shoulder soreness. With Brandon Allen set to start on the road for the 49ers, the Packers now loom as one of the stronger bets of the week.
While the Packers’ recent form has raised questions about their legitimacy as a Super Bowl contender, there’s little reason to believe they should struggle on Sunday. In addition to Purdy’s absence, the 49ers will be missing Nick Bosa. Only Trey Hendrickson has accounted for a higher share of his team’s pressures than Bosa this season.
The 49ers have struggled to generate the types of chunk plays that have defined their offense under Kyle Shanahan, ranking 17th in explosive-play rate this season. With Purdy and Bosa out, it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to threaten the Packers enough or create enough short fields off turnovers to pull off an upset at Lambeau Field.
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Kansas City Chiefs are probably better values next week when they host the Las Vegas Raiders, but if you’re in a pinch for Week 12, they are probably the safest option on the board.
Since Patrick Mahomes became their starter in 2018, the Chiefs are an NFL-best 19-4 following a loss. They’ve typically won in resounding fashion as well, with an average margin of 9.4 PPG and a league-best 14-8-1 ATS record in those games as well.
For all the Chiefs’ troubles, it’s hard to imagine the Panthers stopping their offense regularly or the Bryce Young-led offense being able to deliver the type of knockout punches that Josh Allen delivered last week. Save Kansas City for next week if you can, but use them this week if you must.