If you’re still reading this weekly article, then allow me to be the first to wish you a Happy Thanksgiving and congratulate you for advancing all the way to the holiday season in your Survivor league! Although making it this far is an accomplishment, the job isn’t done quite yet. Let’s take a closer look at some of my survivor picks and strategies heading into Week 12 of NFL action.
NFL Survivor Picks Strategy for Week 12
Family, food, and football are exactly why Thanksgiving is among my favorite holiday traditions. After four teams were on a bye and unavailable to select in Week 11, all 32 teams are back in action this holiday week. So, the task gets a tiny bit easier for Survivor league players heading into Thanksgiving.
Unfortunately for 29.8% of survivor league participants who put their faith into the Washington Commanders in Week 11, they will not be advancing to see Thanksgiving due to the team’s disappointing performance.
The Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Chargers have been the most popular picks through the first 11 weeks of the season and will make selecting winners each week an even tougher challenge.
As mentioned in previous entries, I don’t have any concrete rules when selecting games, but I do have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games
- Avoid picking road teams
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast
As we progress deeper into the season, things like bad weather could start playing a much bigger role in which direction we would like to go for our weekly selection.
As previously mentioned, some of the biggest favorites over the last nine weeks have been the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks, Chargers, Browns, and Cowboys. This means we can’t turn to the likes of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, or a stacked 49ers roster when we get into a pinch later in the season.
MORE: Early NFL Week 12 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
Since these were the most selected teams each week by Survivor league players (according to survivorgrid.com data), I will be excluding them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your Survivor scenario situation each week.
If you have any additional survivor questions specific to your league, don’t hesitate to follow me on Twitter @DerekTateNFL to send me a message or join our Discord channel, so we can talk on that platform.
Teams No Longer Available To Select
Week 1: Baltimore Ravens (Selected by 32% of survivor league teams)
Week 2: Buffalo Bills (Selected by 26% of teams)
Week 3: Kansas City Chiefs (Selected by 21% of teams)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (Selected by 31% of teams)
Week 5: Miami Dolphins (Selected by 39% of teams)
Week 6: Los Angeles Rams (Selected by 17% of teams)
Week 7: Seattle Seahawks (Selected by 55% of teams)
Week 8: Los Angeles Chargers (Selected by 35% of teams)
Week 9: Cleveland Browns (Selected by 54% of teams)
Week 10: Dallas Cowboys (Selected by 42% of teams)
Week 11: Detroit Lions (Selected by 17% of teams)
This is where identifying teams who aren’t necessarily the biggest favorite of the week can strongly benefit you as we move into the holiday season.
The fact that some of the biggest Super Bowl contenders in the league are unavailable for the rest of the season will start presenting some very big challenges once we get to the month of December.
For now, though, we still have the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars available, who have plenty of future value to rely on heading into the final month of NFL action.
Strategy 1
Week 12: Minnesota Vikings (vs. CHI)
Week 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. CAR)
Week 14: Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. NE)
Week 15: New Orleans Saints (vs. NYG)
Top teams still available: PHI, JAX
Strategy 2
Week 12: Pittsburgh Steelers (@ CIN)
Week 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. CAR)
Week 14: New Orleans Saints (vs. CAR)
Week 15: Minnesota Vikings (@ CIN)
Top teams still available: PHI, JAX
It’s always important to keep updating your strategy once we get new information. For example, if you like to simply trail a bad team to play against every week, I suggest pivoting to the Panthers, Giants, and Patriots.
Chalk Picks
Through the first eleven weeks of the NFL season, I’ve gone 18-4 with my chalk selections, with the Dolphins and 49ers handling their business last Sunday.
Let’s take a look at my favorite chalk selections heading into Week 12.
Kansas City Chiefs (@ LV)
Someone should consider sending every Chiefs pass catcher a new pair of gloves coated in Stickum for Christmas this year. Kansas City squandered a big opportunity to stay atop the AFC standings with multiple inexcusable drops in their 21-17 loss against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.
Fortunately, the Chiefs’ stout defense will have the chance to give a rookie quarterback all he can handle while the Las Vegas Raiders continue to experience some growing pains on the offensive side of the ball. Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell threw three interceptions last week and could struggle to move the ball through the air against one of the better cornerback tandems in the league in Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed.
As for the offensive side of the football, expect Mahomes to be razor-sharp in a bounce-back performance and quickly remind everyone how this offense is still a force to be reckoned with for the remainder of the 2023 season.
Miami Dolphins (@ NYJ)
The Dolphins didn’t exactly look their best on the offensive side of the football against the Raiders, but the defense certainly put forth one of its best performances of the season. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s unit forced the rookie into three crucial interceptions, which included two by CB Jalen Ramsey, who has made an instant impact on this defense since entering the starting lineup.
MORE: NFL Coach of the Year Odds –Can DeMeco Ryans Challenge Dan Campbell for the Award?
If the Dolphins were looking forward to facing off against a rookie quarterback last week, then I’m sure they’re up to the challenge against Tim Boyle, who was just named the New York Jets starting QB. The Jets’ defense could keep this one interesting for a while, but I just don’t see the New York offense scoring enough points to keep pace with the Dolphins’ potent offensive unit.
Contrarian Pick
Tennessee Titans (vs. CAR)
The Tennessee Titans’ recent offensive performances don’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence for picking them against a one-win Carolina Panthers team, but here we are. The Titans just got dusted by the Jacksonville Jaguars, with QB Trevor Lawrence accounting for four total touchdowns in his best performance of the season.
Lucky for Tennessee, the Panthers don’t have very much talent at the WR position this season outside of Adam Thielen, which makes it unlikely that the Panthers will be able to exploit the Titans’ biggest vulnerability on defense. Not to mention, Titans RB Derrick Henry has just 21 carries over the last two games and has failed to rush for more than 40 yards in two consecutive contests for the first time since the 2019 season.
Fortunately, the Panthers give up 129 rushing yards per game and are unlikely to score enough points to game-script Henry out of the contest. Expect the Titans to follow King Henry’s lead in this one all the way to a victory.
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