Six of the 14 games in Week 11 pit a team with a winning record against a team below .500. While that gives survivor pool contestants a few more options than usual, it also means a more complicated strategy to ensure you’re not leaving yourself shorthanded for the stretch run.
To make it through another week, here are three teams that stand out as strong values to use.
All stats courtesy of TruMedia unless otherwise stated. In addition, all lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Dolphins (-7) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Most survivor pools likely have the Miami Dolphins still available. The Jacksonville Jaguars were thought to be a competent team entering the year, so many likely didn’t use the Dolphins back in Week 1. Miami hasn’t been favored by more than five points yet this season, and that came in Tua Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8 versus the Arizona Cardinals.
The Dolphins will eclipse that on Sunday against the 2-7 Las Vegas Raiders, who have lost five in a row entering their bye. Miami has performed at a different level since Tagovailoa’s return, ranking sixth in points per drive since Week 8.
The Raiders remain in total disarray and have the difficult 1 p.m. ET kickoff time for a Pacific Time Zone team. Since 2022, the Raiders are 1-8 when playing at 1 p.m. ET. The lone win was in Week 2 of this season against the Baltimore Ravens, which required a miraculous fourth-quarter comeback.
Minnesota Vikings (-6) at Tennessee Titans
Understandably, you might be skittish about entrusting Sam Darnold as a road favorite. Following his disastrous three-interception game in a near-upset to the Jaguars, Darnold leads the NFL with 13 turnovers this season.
The good news is that the Tennessee Titans are not particularly well-equipped to exploit Darnold’s recklessness (though one could have said the same about the Jags last week). Tennessee ranks 29th in takeaways per drive, with half of its six takeaways coming against Drake Maye in Week 9.
More importantly, you can expect the Minnesota Vikings’ defense to give themselves an extremely large margin for error. The Vikings average the most takeaways per drive, while the Titans rank 30th in turnovers per drive. With Will Levis at quarterback again, expect the Vikings’ defense to generate multiple short fields for the offense (if it doesn’t score itself).
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— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 10, 2024
The Vikings do have both upcoming matchups against the Chicago Bears, so you don’t have to burn Minnesota if you’re nervous about Darnold’s current state, but the matchup provides such a large margin for error for Darnold that you’ll most likely be fine rolling with the Vikings.
Detroit Lions (-13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Any time you see a spread this large, it has to be a consideration for survivor leagues. The Detroit Lions are only listed this low due to the possibility that they’ve already been used in the majority of survivor pools.
For context, this would match the largest favorite in any game this season. The Denver Broncos were also 13-point favorites over the Carolina Panthers in Week 8 (and both won and covered, 28-14).
The Lions do have both games against the Bears remaining, as well as a road date against the Indianapolis Colts next week. Still, if you’ve been holding on to the NFC’s top seed this long, this is a great spot to ensure you enjoy a relaxing Sunday while others sweat out their survivor picks.