If you’re still reading this weekly article, allow me to be the first to congratulate you on advancing to the second half of the 2023 season in your survivor league! It has been a long journey, but now it’s time to dig in and formulate our survivor league strategy for the final eight weeks of NFL action, starting with Week 11.
NFL Survivor Picks Strategy for Week 11
The Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, and Los Angeles Rams being unavailable to select last week due to their bye weeks in Week 10 made for some interesting survivor league selections this past weekend.
Unfortunately for 37.9% of survivor league participants who put their faith into the Buffalo Bills or Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10, they will not be advancing to see Thanksgiving due to their disappointing performances.
The Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Chargers have been the most popular picks through the first 10 weeks of the season and will make selecting winners each week an even tougher challenge.
As mentioned in previous entries, I don’t have any concrete rules when selecting games, but I do have some general guidelines to follow:
- Avoid divisional games
- Avoid picking road teams
- Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast
As we progress deeper into the season, things like bad weather could start playing a much bigger role in which direction we would like to go for our weekly selection.
As previously mentioned, some of the biggest favorites over the last nine weeks have been the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, Dolphins, Rams, Seahawks, Chargers, Browns, and Cowboys. This means we can’t turn to the likes of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, or a stacked 49ers roster when we get into a pinch later in the season.
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Since these were the most selected teams each week by survivor league players (according to survivorgrid.com data), I will be excluding them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your survivor scenario situation each week.
If you have any additional survivor questions specific to your league, don’t hesitate to follow me on Twitter @DerekTateNFL to send me a message or join our Discord channel, so we can talk on that platform.
Teams No Longer Available To Select
Week 1: Baltimore Ravens (Selected by 32% of survivor league teams)
Week 2: Buffalo Bills (Selected by 26% of teams)
Week 3: Kansas City Chiefs (Selected by 21% of teams)
Week 4: San Francisco 49ers (Selected by 31% of teams)
Week 5: Miami Dolphins (Selected by 39% of teams)
Week 6: Los Angeles Rams (Selected by 17% of teams)
Week 7: Seattle Seahawks (Selected by 55% of teams)
Week 8: Los Angeles Chargers (Selected by 35% of teams)
Week 9: Cleveland Browns (Selected by 54% of teams)
Week 10: Dallas Cowboys (Selected by 42% of teams)
This is where identifying teams who aren’t necessarily the biggest favorite of the week can strongly benefit you as we move into the holiday season.
The fact that some of the biggest Super Bowl contenders in the league are unavailable for the rest of the season will start presenting some very big challenges once we get to the back half of the 2023 campaign.
For now, though, we still have the Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cincinnati Bengals, and Detroit Lions available who have plenty of future value to rely on heading into the final month of NFL action.
Strategy 1
Week 11: Detroit Lions (vs. CHI)
Week 12: Tennessee Titans (vs. CAR)
Week 13: Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. ARI)
Week 14: Cincinnati Bengals (vs. IND)
Top teams still available: PHI, JAX
Strategy 2
Week 11: Detroit Lions (vs. CHI)
Week 12: Tennessee Titans (vs. CAR)
Week 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. CAR)
Week 14: New Orleans Saints (vs. CAR)
Top teams still available: PHI, JAX, CIN
It’s always important to keep updating your strategy once we get new information. For example, if you like to simply trail a bad team to play against every week, I suggest pivoting to the Panthers, Giants, and Patriots.
Chalk Picks
Through the first nine weeks of the NFL season, I’ve gone 16-4 with my chalk selections but took a loss last week with the Broncos’ upset over the Bills.
Here’s a look at some of the chalkiest picks for Week 11, according to Numberfire.com.
Let’s take a look at my favorite chalk selections heading into Week 11.
Miami Dolphins (vs. LV)
Very quietly, the Las Vegas Raiders have managed to go 2-0 under interim head coach Antonio Pierce with a rookie quarterback under center. Unfortunately, those two wins came against a pair of New York teams who have struggled to score points all season long.
The Raiders’ Week 11 matchup against the Miami Dolphins will put this new coach-quarterback combination to it’s first real test when they face off against Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle on Sunday. I am a firm believer that the Raiders made the right decision by making the move to part ways with Josh McDaniels, but I just don’t see Aidan O’Connell being able to win a shootout against the Dolphins in Week 11.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. TB)
Once upon a time, the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft made his professional starting debut against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and came out on the winning side with a three-touchdown performance against his idol.
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Well, fast forward nearly an entire calendar year, and Brock Purdy is still the starting QB for the 49ers, and they should fair pretty well against a Bucs defense which have given up a handful of big performances through the air this season.
And, oh yeah, the 49ers’ defense looked fantastic against Trevor Lawrence last week and could make life unpleasant for another former No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft in Baker Mayfield this Sunday.
Contrarian Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (@ GB)
While I certainly understand the Los Angeles Chargers have felt like a team that continues to fail to live up to expectations, it is still hard to believe they are currently below .500 on the season. The Chargers haven’t had issues scoring points, their defense continues to give yards and points to most everyone this season.
I’m not sure I could see the Chargers making a playoff push in a stacked AFC if they manage to lose a game against a Green Bay Packers offense that is scoring 19.9 points per game this season.
I’m aware going to Lambeau Field for a southern California team in the month of November isn’t an ideal task. However, if Justin Herbert wants to keep this team in the thick of the playoff picture in this AFC, they need to come away with a win in this contest. I believe they get the job done with Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa getting to Packers QB Jordan Love in this contest.
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