Four teams are on bye in Week 10, leaving fewer choices for those still clinging to life in their survivor pools.
To make it through another week, here are three teams that stand out as strong values to use.
All stats courtesy of TruMedia unless otherwise stated. In addition, all lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago Bears (-6) vs. New England Patriots
This might feel like a curious time to lean on the Chicago Bears, who are 4-4 after a pair of ugly offensive performances. However, the Bears are playing at Soldier Field, where they’ve been a totally different offense this season.
- Bears Offense at Soldier Field: 28 PPG, 0.00 EPA per play, 43% success rate
- Bears Offense Anywhere Else: 17.6 PPG, -0.12 EPA per play, 39% success rate
Moreover, the New England Patriots are poorly equipped to exploit Chicago’s biggest weakness on offense. The Bears have allowed the third-highest sack rate this season, but the Patriots’ defense ranks 28th in both sack rate and pressure rate.
On the other side of the ball, the Chicago defense excels at creating takeaways. The Bears have forced turnovers at the sixth-highest rate on a per-drive basis (16.1%).
As exciting as Drake Maye has been, the rookie remains error-prone. Since he became New England’s starter in Week 6, the Patriots rank 27th in turnover rate (15.9% of drives).
The Bears have a brutal closing schedule and could conceivably be underdogs in every game the rest of the way. So if you still have Chicago available in your pool, this is the week to use them.
Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
There might not be a bigger mismatch in Week 10 than the Titans’ offense facing the Chargers’ defense. The Chargers rank first in scoring defense and first in defensive success rate. The Titans rank 31st in success rate and 27th in scoring offense.
While Mason Rudolph isn’t turning the ball over at the same astronomical rate as Will Levis, the Titans’ offense hasn’t fared any better with the veteran at QB. Tennessee is averaging -0.19 EPA per play with Levis at QB, compared to -0.16 with Rudolph. That’s the difference between the 32nd-ranked offense…and the 29th-ranked offense.
On the other side of the ball, Justin Herbert has ascended after a quiet start. Since returning from the bye in Week 6, Herbert has averaged 8.7 yards per attempt with five touchdowns and no interceptions.
It might be time to take the 5-3 @chargers seriously. Jesse Minter has that defense confusing opposing quarterbacks, and after a rough start, Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman finally have Justin Herbert in the kind of passing game his ridiculous talent deserves. pic.twitter.com/SA0cLb0ObF
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) November 4, 2024
Herbert’s ability to protect the ball is key, as it’s improbable to imagine a scenario where the Titans win this game without turnovers from their defense. That makes Los Angeles and Chicago the clear 1A and 1B options in survivor this week.
Minnesota Vikings (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
If you’ve held off on using the Minnesota Vikings in your pool, you’ll want to burn them in one of the next two weeks. The Vikings visit the Tennessee Titans next week, but six of their last seven opponents are .500 or better. The exception is a Week 16 trip to Seattle to face the Seahawks, which is always a difficult environment.
You might balk at taking Sam Darnold on the road, particularly given Darnold’s recent turnover woes (eight in his past five games, including a season-high three vs. the Colts last week).
However, the Jacksonville Jaguars are as poorly equipped to exploit that weakness as any defense. The Jags rank 31st in takeaways per drive and don’t have more than one takeaway in any game this season.
The Vikings rank first in takeaways per drive, which should put them in position to win the turnover battle against a Jacksonville team that has a -7 turnover margin this year. Under Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota is a remarkable 22-2 with a zero turnover margin or better. Only the Kansas City Chiefs (21-1) have a better record since O’Connell became a head coach in 2022.
If you have the Bears or Chargers available, it might be wise to save the Vikings for next week, when they could be even larger favorites at Tennessee. But if you need another option, Minnesota stands out as a strong road favorite in Week 10.