It’s that time of year. One of the best gambling events of the year is nearing, and with that, there are no shortage of NFL Super Bowl player props to consider.
Due to the volume of bets that come in for the big game, the lines are sharper this week than any other during the season. Bookmakers have just one game to focus on, and as action comes in, they have the ability to adjust with the betting market and create as efficient a market as you’ll see.
With that in mind, you have to be willing to work just as hard as them if you want to gain even the slightest of edges.
We will be touching on all of the prop markets over the next 10 days — today, we are deep diving into the most popular bet position: quarterback.
NFL Super Bowl Player Props for Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy
Part of my process in evaluating bets is to go from the macro to the micro. The end goal is to formulate a projection that I feel good about for both of these players. We’ll get there, but in order to determine if you trust my final answer, you have to understand how I got there.
This is the moment all of my grade school teachers have been waiting for — time to show my work!
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The narrative around big events, really in any sport, is that as the stakes increase, the offensive production dips. “Defense wins championships” has been a cliche for as long as I can remember, and when you pull on that thread, there is some tangible data to back it up.
I decided to compare the efficiency metrics for quarterbacks in the Super Bowl since 2000 against what they did for the season leading into that game in an effort to get a sense if the aforementioned cliche was more accurate than the “big-time players make big-time plays” sentence that gets tossed around this time of year.
- 73.3% of QBs saw their yards per attempt (YPA) dip in the Super Bowl
- Average decline: 6%
- 77.3% of QBs who won the Super Bowl saw their YPA drop*
- Average winner decline: 5.2%
- 69.6% of QBs who lost the Super Bowl saw their YPA drop
- Average loser decline: 6.8%
*Includes a run of five straight and eight of the past nine (Nick Foles being the lone exception)
This generally makes sense as the defenses that make the Super Bowl tend to be better than the average of what these QBs faced prior, but it helps to put a number to it. The touchdown rate decline curve also nets out roughly how you’d expect.
- 59.1% of QBs saw their TD% dip in the Super Bowl
- 45.5% of QBs who won the Super Bowl saw their TD% dip in the Super Bowl
- 72.7% of QBs who lost the Super Bowl saw their TD% dip in the Super Bowl
This brings me to a key point in consuming projections — the result.
I can tell you that I think the San Francisco 49ers will win on Super Sunday, but if you disagree with me, then your fundamental understanding of how the game will play out differs. Thus, your projections, even with a similar foundation of basic stats, will vary in a significant way.
That’s why I encourage you to ask questions and be curious when you consume betting content. For the purposes of this exercise, I’ll be covering yardage projections for Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy for both potential results.
Efficiency stats are great, but that’s like having a great recipe with no ingredients.
As we try to funnel closer to the specific projection, we need to know how many pass attempts to project. Since 2000 in Super Bowls, only 23.9% of quarterbacks have thrown fewer passes than what they entered the game averaging.
As for the percent increase in attempts:
- Average Super Bowl QB: +17.6% from games prior
- Winning Super Bowl QB: +13.9% from games prior
- Losing Super Bowl QB: +21.2% from games prior
Remember what I said about projecting the game? Quarterbacks have been throwing more passes in the Super Bowl than what they averaged prior, but the rate of increase spikes for the losing QB, given the state of the game.
It’s a logical result, but one that often gets forgotten in the chase for a single projection.
OK, now it’s time for the math. I’ll spare you the fun formulas and tables, but here are the base numbers that were used.
Patrick Mahomes
- Pass attempts per game: 36.8
- YPA: 7.0
Brock Purdy
- Pass attempts per game: 28.6
- YPA: 9.3
One last thing before I reward you for reading this far and unleash the adjusted projections: betting lines.
I’ve found that, over time, projections from a sportsbook are typically lower than mine. That stands to reason as I rely on efficiency data while they have to weigh some volume downside to offset risk factors like injury and projected game script.
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Understanding that, I give myself a 5% buffer zone — if you increase the prop by 5%, where does my projection settle? I can’t project injury, but I do understand that the books have to account for at least some of that, and this is my way of canceling out any adjustment they may have made in that regard.
When adjusting for the trends above and marrying it with the averages from this season, here are the projections by script.
FanDuel yardage prop for Mahomes: 262.5 yards
- Chiefs win, under: 266.0 yards
- Chiefs win, over: 267.2 yards
- Chiefs lose, under: 278.4 yards
- Chiefs lose, over: 279.7 yards
FanDuel yardage prop for Purdy: 245.5 yards
- 49ers win, under: 263.9 yards
- 49ers win, over: 264.6 yards
- 49ers lose, under: 276.2 yards
- 49ers lose, over: 277.0 yards
Call back to that 5% buffer I mentioned earlier. These numbers still present value on Purdy overs (more so if you believe they lose the game). But in adjusting the betting line for Mahomes up and if I’m forecasting a Kansas City Chiefs win, I’m now comfortably on the under for his passing yards.
If you believe the Chiefs can’t be stopped, there is a path to making this more than just a prop card and making it a same game parlay. If you get the result of this game right (Chiefs ML) and these trends prove stable:
- Chiefs ML, Mahomes under 262.5 pass yards, Purdy over 245.5 pass yards (+624)
I’m not there yet on picking a winner with conviction, but I am on Purdy’s over at its current number.
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