Whether you’re setting your daily fantasy football lineup or you need just a bit more information before getting in on the NFL betting action at your favorite sportsbook, we’ve got you covered here at Pro Football Network with the most important stats, notes, and insights for every NFL matchup of the Wild Card round.
We all know how time-consuming gathering all the information can be, which is why we’re doing the research for you so you don’t have to. Note that all stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos
Team: Bo Nix got this team to 10 wins. Their last double-digit win season came in 2015, a season that ended with a Super Bowl.
QB: Bo Nix made NFL history as the first QB with 3+ TD passes and 75% complete in four games as a rookie. He also matched the franchise record for such games in a season (Peyton Manning had four such games in both 2012 and 2013).
Bo Nix has 10 games with 2+ passing TDs this season, one of only two rookies to do so in NFL history (Justin Herbert, 2020). He's also the 2nd rookie all-time to have multiple games with 300+ passing yards and 4+ passing TDs (Daniel Jones, 2019). 📈
Quite the rookie season for… pic.twitter.com/0lelyccBr8
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 6, 2025
Offense: Since Week 11, the Broncos have been the third-highest scoring team in the league (32.6 PPG).
Defense: The Broncos beat the Chiefs on Sunday, their first win this season in a game in which they didn’t force a turnover (lost the previous four).
Fantasy: Courtland Sutton has scored 18 times on 225 targets over the past two seasons (two seasons prior: four touchdowns on 207 targets).
Betting: Over the past two months, the Broncos have two losses on normal-to-extended rest – an overtime loss to Joe Burrow and a two-point loss to Patrick Mahomes (GW 35-yard FGA was blocked at the buzzer).
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills have made the postseason in seven of eight seasons under Sean McDermott (he was hired with the franchise on a 17-year playoff drought).
QB: This is the sixth straight season in which Josh Allen is playing on Wild Card Weekend – he’s completed at least 70% of his passes in three of his past four, with multiple TD tosses in each of those contests (one touchdown pass for every 13.5 attempts across those four contests).
Offense: The first 30-30 team in NFL history (passing and rushing touchdowns). Balance is good until it’s not – only twice in NFL history has a team with 30+ rush TDs won their conference (2022 Eagles and 1983 Commanders).
Defense: Excluding Week 18, when most of the starters were very limited, if not out altogether, the Buffalo defensive trends on third down are concerning.
- Weeks 6-13: 36.5%
- Weeks 14-17: 57.1% converted
Fantasy: Remove the outlier shootout game against the Rams in Week 14 and Amari Cooper has been targeted on just 15.4% of his routes as a member of the Bills (Weeks 1-6 with Cleveland: 22.8%).
Betting: The Bills went 5-3 ATS at home with overs going 6-2, a change of pace from their 4-5 ATS mark and 3-6 overs record a season ago.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay Packers
Team: It was a difficult end to the season, but the Packers posted their second-best point differential during the Matt LaFleur era (+122)
QB: In Weeks 11-16, Jordan Love’s pressured passer rating was 107.2, a number that has plummeted to 53.6 in two consecutive losses to round out the regular season.
Offense: Green Bay is just 3-5 this season when failing to convert over one-third of its third downs (three-of-10 against the Bears in Week 18).
Defense: The Packers lost on Sunday despite allowing just 18.5 yards per drive (they were 5-0 this season when allowing under 25 yards per drive prior).
Fantasy: Josh Jacobs has rushed for a touchdown in a franchise-record eight straight games and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry over his past three games. He’s been able to add value in the passing game, catching each of his past 13 targets.
Betting: Since 2003, unders are 17-6-1 (73.9%) in Eagles playoff games, the second highest rate among franchises with at least five playoff games over that stretch (exception: Titans at 81.8%).
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: The Eagles have lost six of their past eight playoff games outright when favored (four Wild Card games are included in that sample, all losses).
QB: Jalen Hurts (and the coaching staff) is trusting his reads longer, a continued trend from the past few seasons. His quick pass rate in 2022 was 69.8% – it dipped to 61.7% in 2023 and finished this year at 57.3%.
Offense: Philadelphia was outscored by 14 points in the first quarter this season—just one of the past 12 Super Bowl champions has had a negative first-quarter point differential (2020 Buccaneers).
Defense: In Weeks 1-17, the Eagles were 12-0 when allowing 2.0 or fewer points per drive (1-3 otherwise).
Fantasy: Saquon Barkley led the position in top-10 PPR performances this season (10) despite not playing last week.
Betting: From 2013-20, home teams on Wild Card weekend were just 8-17-3 ATS (32%), but since 2021, when the shift to an 18-week regular season began, they have been 11-7 ATS (61.1%).
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: The +101 point differential posted by the Chargers this season is their best since outscoring the opposition by 119 points in 2010.
QB: Justin Herbert is the first Chargers player to complete two-thirds of his passes with 280 yards and multiple scores through the air in three straight games (prior to him, it had been in consecutive games nine times in franchise history).
Offense: Los Angeles has averaged over 3.0 points per drive three times this season … Weeks 16-17-18.
Defense: Opponents have converted just nine of 32 third downs over the past three weeks (28.1%).
Fantasy: Ladd McConkey finishes his rookie season with three straight games north of 85 receiving yards. His six such games match the franchise record for a rookie (2013 Keenan Allen).
Betting: The Texans finished the regular season 3-5 ATS at home, with unders going 6-1-1.
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans are 1-6 in their last seven games with C.J. Stroud under center against a winning team and have been outscored 196-106 in those contests.
QB: C.J. Stroud threw 116 deep passes (15+ air yards) last season and 122 this season. The attempt count was similar, but the success rate was very different.
- 2023: 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions
- 2024: 5 touchdowns and 7 interceptions
Offense: Houston averages 1.81 points per drive this season. When they reach that number, they are 7-2 (3-5 otherwise).
Defense: The Texans are 9-1 this season when stopping the opposition on over 60% of their third down opportunities (1-6 otherwise).
Fantasy: Nico Collins has appeared in eight Texan victories this season, and in those games, he’s produced 41.7% over PPR expectations.
Betting: Unders are 4-1 in Houston’s past five games.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: The 2011 Giants are the only team since 2000 to win a Super Bowl in a season that included a four-game losing streak (the Steelers have lost four straight, totaling just 57 points across those games).
QB: Russell Wilson’s pressure stats are a major concern as we get into the postseason.
- Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 12-14: 120.7 (would lead the NFL)
- Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 15-18: 43.9 (worse than Kirk Cousins)
Offense: Saturday’s loss to the Bengals was Pittsburgh’s first this season when not turning the ball over (they won the first four such instances, out-scoring opponents 100-44 in those games).
Defense: The Steelers are 1-5 this season when allowing opponents to pick up at least 37% of their third downs this season (lone win: Week 13 at Bengals).
Fantasy: The Najee Harris train has run out of gas, partly due to this offense:
- Weeks 6-14: 4.2% production over expectation, 4.0 red zone touches per game
- Weeks 15-18: 16.8% production below expectations, 2.0 red zone touches per game
Betting: Mike Tomlin doesn’t just excel at winning games on the field – his Steelers have posted a winning ATS record in 10 of the past 12 seasons (2024: 11-6, 64.7%).
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The UConn Huskies won a national championship in 2023. Why does that matter? They also won in 1999 and 2011, the season prior to the Ravens winning their most recent Super Bowls.
QB: In the last two seasons under Todd Monken, Lamar Jackson has been a different QB:
- 2023-24: 66.9% complete, 8.4 yards per attempt, 7.0% TD, 1.2% INT
- Career prior: 63.7% complete, 7.4 yards per attempt, 6.1%, 2.3% INT
Offense: The Ravens turned the ball over at least once in six of their first seven games – they’ve done it in just three of 10 games since.
Defense: In Weeks 11-18, Baltimore allowed 1.38 points per drive (Weeks 1-10: 2.30)
Fantasy: Since Week 12, Derrick Henry has been even more dangerous than normal when it comes to chunk gains.
- Weeks 1-11: 37.6% of carries gained 5+ yards (11.7% gained 10+ yards)
- Weeks 12-18: 49.2% of carries gained 5+ yards (17.2% gained 10+ yards)
Betting: No team cashed over tickets more often than the Ravens during the regular season (13-4), quite the change for a franchise that had more unders than overs in each of the four seasons prior.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Commanders
Team: In Year 1 of the Jayden Daniels era, the Commanders matched their win total from the two seasons prior (12) and posted their best point differential since the Super Bowl champion 1991 team.
QB: Daniels has completed 27 of 36 passes (75%) against the blitz during the current five-game win streak, a drastic improvement from his 49.1% rate over the previous five games.
Offense: The Commanders have converted eight of their last nine fourth-down attempts (four for four over the past two weeks).
Defense: Washington has held the opposition out of the end zone on at least half of their red zone drives in four of their past five games (one TD on six such drives on Sunday against Dallas).
Fantasy: Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes this season, more than his best two seasons combined prior.
Betting: The Commanders have failed to cover three straight road games after opening the season 3-1-1 ATS on the road.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: The Bucs haven’t lost a game in regulation by more than three points since October.
QB: In 2021, Baker Mayfield completed 41.8% of his passes when under duress. His rate ticked up to 45.1% in 2022, to 49% in 2023, and up to 58% this season.
Offense: In Weeks 9-14, the Bucs picked up just 38.3% of their third downs. In the four weeks to close the regular season, that rate spiked to 61.4%.
Defense: Just three times through 15 weeks did Tampa Bay fail to force a turnover – they enter the postseason having failed to do so in each of their past three.
Fantasy: Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season.
Betting: Tampa Bay went 5-4 ATS at home this season after going 5-11-1 over the previous two seasons in front of their home fans.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
Minnesota Vikings
Team: Since Christmas Eve, 2023, the Vikings have been 0-5 against teams for which Matthew Stafford has started a game and 14-1 against the other 29 teams in the NFL.
QB: In Week 7, Sam Darnold had as many touchdowns as interceptions in a loss where his team allowed 31 points to the Lions – he followed it up with his second-best passer rating of the season in Los Angeles against the Rams. He didn’t have any touchdowns or interceptions in Sunday’s 31-9 loss to the Lions …
Offense: In Weeks 14-17, Minnesota averaged 2.8 points per drive (they managed just 0.8 points per drive in Detroit to wrap up the regular season).
Defense: The Vikings have played six games against playoff teams this season – their four worst points-per-drive defensive performances have come in those contests.
Fantasy: In Weeks 1-9, Justin Jefferson scored 33.8% more PPR points than expected based on his target diet. He’s still on the plus side of things since, but his +5.3% is still symbolic of a struggle by his lofty standards.
Betting: The Vikings failed to cover on Sunday night, a game that went under the total, and that’s a rare occurrence – they were 7-2 ATS in games that saw fewer points than expected.
Los Angeles Rams
Team: The Rams are 2-3 in their past five home games (they’ve won five straight on the road).
QB: Last season, Matthew Stafford completed 53.6% of his fourth-quarter passes with five touchdowns and two interceptions. This season, he’s connected on 68.5% of his passes in the final 15 minutes with eight touchdowns against just one interception.
Offense: Los Angeles has scored a touchdown on just five of their 14 trips to the red zone over their past four games.
Defense: Three of the Rams’ best defensive showings this season in terms of points per drive came in December (Weeks 15-16-17).
Fantasy: CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the only receivers with more yards and a higher catch rate than Puka Nacua over the past two seasons.
Betting: Under tickets are 6-3 in Los Angeles’ past nine playoff games and have come through in each of the past three such spots.