Whether you’re setting your fantasy football lineups or you need just a bit more information before getting in on the NFL betting action at your favorite sportsbook, we’ve got you covered here at Pro Football Network with the most important stats, notes, and insights for every NFL matchup in Week 9.
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Bye Week Schedule
- Week 9: Steelers, 49ers
- Week 10: Browns, Packers, Raiders, Seahawks
- Week 11: Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, Buccaneers
- Week 12: Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, Jets
- Week 14: Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Houston Texans at New York Jets (TNF)
Houston Texans
Team: Over their past six games, the Texans are 0-2 against the NFC North (averaging 14.5 PPG) and 4-0 against the rest of the NFL (27.8 PPG).
QB: C.J. Stroud has 11 deep pass attempts over his past two games – in the last two games in which Nico Collins started, he had 11 deep completions.
Offense: Over 75% of Houston’s yards came through the air in the last four games that Nico Collins started – in the three games he has missed, just 53.7% of their yards have come via the pass.
Defense: The Texans created pressure on 72.7% of their blitzes last week against the Colts, easily their best mark of the season and the 10th best through eight weeks across the entire NFL.
Fantasy: Joe Mixon has cleared 23 PPR fantasy points in all three games back from injury, producing 31.1% over expectation in the process.
Betting: Six of Houston’s past eight games played on short rest have come in under the closing total (they’ve covered their past three such games).
New York Jets
Team: The Jets had zero turnovers, held the Patriots to 247 yards — and still lost. They’re the first team to lose a game in which they did not turn the ball over and held their opponent under 250 yards since Week 3 of 2012. That game? Aaron Rodgers’ Packers lost.
QB: In the two games since the Davante Adams trade, Aaron Rodgers has completed 61.2% of his passes with a 1.5 touchdown-to-interception rate (Weeks 1-6: 61.8% complete, 1.8 touchdown-to-interception).
Offense: In Week 8, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams accounted for 52.9% of Jet catches and 71.7% of their receiving yards.
Defense: In Weeks 1-4, the Jets had an 11.5% sack rate, but since, their rate sits at just 7.2%.
Fantasy: Tyler Conklin caught a touchdown pass in traffic on Sunday and now has an endzone target in three of his past four games (quality over quantity of look these days at the TE position and the looks he gets have been valuable, even since the acquisition of Adams).
Betting: The Jets are 1-2 ATS at home this season (covered in Week 3 against the Patriots) and 2-6 ATS in their past eight at home.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Cowboys
Team: Strong second half? The on-field product is struggling right now, but this franchise does have back-to-back-to-back seasons with a four-game win streak in the second half of the season.
QB: Dak Prescott has been intercepted multiple times in three straight games, a first for him and the 11th time in the franchise has seen a QB do that. Only twice in their long history has it happened in four straight (Danny White in 1983 and Craig Morton in 1972).
Offense: In Weeks 1-4, Dallas allowed pressure 25.8% of the time, a rate that has spiked in their three games since (37.3%).
Defense: The Cowboys are 2-3 over their past five games. In three games against teams favored to make the playoffs over that stretch, they’ve allowed 105 points (35 points per game). In the other two games, there were 32 points total. They face playoff hopefuls in each of the next four weeks (Falcons, Eagles, Texans, and Commanders).
Fantasy: Jake Ferguson had zero air yards in Week 8 despite eight targets and has been held under 30 air yards in four straight. He’s an asset in PPR leagues, but the per-catch ceiling is low (zero touchdowns this season, nine catches for 34 yards over his past two games).
Betting: Dallas has covered each of their past five road dome games, as well as the past three cashing under tickets.
Atlanta Falcons
Team: In Week 8, the Falcons improved to 3-0 following a loss this season, winning those games by five points.
QB: Kirk Cousins’ 62.4% quick pass rate is his highest since 2018, his first season with the Vikings.
Offense: Atlanta converted 3-8 third-and-long situations (seven-plus yards) in Week 5 against the Bucs; since then, they are just 2-15 in such spots.
Defense: The Falcons have the lowest sack rate in the NFL (2.2%), and it isn’t close (Carolina ranks 31st at 3.6%). We’ve only had two sub-3% sack teams over the past decade (the 2018 Raiders and the 2020 Titans).
Fantasy: I’m not overreacting, but Drake London posted the lowest aDOT of his season on Sunday (6.7 yards) with his second-lowest on-field target share (18.8%). Shorter routes typically correlate with more volume, not less, so this is at least something to monitor.
Betting: The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS at home this season, and they were fortunate to get that one (Week 5’s comeback win over the Bucs in overtime as a 2.5-point favorite).
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
Team: Much has been made of the Dolphins’ ability to play on the East Coast as the weather turns—they don’t play another true East Coast game on the road until Week 17 (at Cleveland and at New York to finish the season).
QB: In his return to action, Tua Tagovailoa completed 28 passes, his most in a game since Week 8 of last season.
Offense: Miami averaged 5.9 yards per play on Sunday, their best mark since Week 1, the only other Tua Tagovailoa full game. In Weeks 2-7, they picked up just 4.4 yards per play.
Defense: The average NFL team records a sack on 21.5% of dropbacks in which they create pressure. Through eight weeks, Miami is 12.3%, the second-lowest in the league (Atlanta).
Fantasy: De’Von Achane produced 56.1% over expectation in the return of QB1 – in the four games Tagovailoa missed, his rate was 39.1% below expectations.
Betting: Miami covered 13 of Tua Tagovailoa’s first 19 starts in November or later. They have been 5-9 ATS in such spots since, with three straight failures to cover (outscored 103-40 across those games).
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills are coming off of a stretch where they played four of five games on the road – three of the next four are in front of #BillsMafia (Chiefs in Week 11 and 49ers in Week 13).
QB: In Week 2, James Cook ran for 78 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries while the Bills had the ball for under 24 minutes. That combination of events resulted in Josh Allen failing to throw multiple touchdown passes for the first time in 14 career games against the Dolphins.
Offense: The Bills scored a touchdown on 9.1% of their drives in the blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 4. They followed that up with a 16.7% rate in Week 5, 33.3% in Week 6, 36.4% in Week 7, and 40% in Seattle last week.
Defense: Buffalo has the fifth-highest pressure rate when bringing the heat (48%), a strength they carried over from last season (47.3%).
Fantasy: Including the playoffs, Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in 11 of 14 career starts against the Dolphins, five times surpassing 33 points (most recent: Week 3, 2023).
Betting: Each of Buffalo’s past three covers against the Dolphins have checked in under the total (31-10 win in Week 2 with a 49-point closing total).
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: The NFL team average is 4.5 yards per carry—the Raiders failed to reach 3.5 in five of eight games last season (Week 8: 21 carries for 33 yards).
QB: Gardner Minshew’s average depth of throw over his past four appearances (ending with Sunday’s mark against the Chiefs): 8.3 – 7.7 – 6.2 – 4.6.
Offense: The Raiders either scored or went three-and-out on every drive on Sunday against the Chiefs.
Defense: Before Sunday, the Raiders hadn’t allowed more than five third-down conversions in a game this season (28.9% conversion rate). Amidst Kermit Gate, Patrick Mahomes picked up 12-of-16 (75%) opportunities.
Fantasy: What made Jakobi Meyers great on Sunday? A season-low 5.8% aDOT and 42.2% slot usage (under 23% in each of his two games before his injury).
Betting: The Raiders have covered five of their past seven road games, with three of those covers coming by more than six points.
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: The Bengals have three wins this season – against the Panthers, Giants, and Browns.
QB: Joe Burrow’s red zone completion percentage is down to 53.7% from 67.4% last season
Offense: The Bengals have averaged under 5.0 yards per play three times this season, two of which have come in the past two weeks.
Defense: Cincinnati blitzed 28.6% of the time on Sunday (their highest since Week 3), but created pressure on a season-low 13.6% of Philadelphia dropbacks.
Fantasy: With Tee Higgins sidelined, Mike Gesicki’s role reappeared. The tight end had twice as many targets on Sunday (eight) as he had in the month prior.
Betting: The Bengals are 0-4 ATS at home this season, failing to cover three of those games by double figures.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: We still haven’t seen 40 total points scored in a Charger game this season (the Browns aren’t exactly explosive on either side of the ball, but even they’ve seen 40 points hit three times this season)
QB: Over the past two weeks, Justin Herbert is 20-of-24 for 328 yards and a touchdown when throwing out of play-action.
Offense: In Weeks 1-4, the Bolts averaged 1.5 points per drive. In the past three weeks, however, that number has spiked to 2.0 (up 33.3%).
Defense: Los Angeles is the only team in the league that can say they’ve recovered as many fumbles as rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed (three).
Fantasy: This is a low-volume offense, and those situations typically result in touchdowns to pay off fantasy managers – J.K. Dobbins was able to help you out with a short score, but that’s not going to be the norm for a team that ranks 31st in percentage of drives that reach the opponents’ 20-yard line (20.8%, only the Browns have been worse).
Betting: Unders are 5-1 in the last six Justin Herbert starts in which the Chargers have been a road favorite.
Cleveland Browns
Team: Cleveland leads the league in play-action rate this season (19.4%), which they essentially mirrored in Jameis Winston’s first start (19.7%).
QB: Winston went 8-11 when throwing deep downfield (15-plus air yards) on Sunday against the Ravens, totaling 167 yards and two touchdowns.
Offense: The Browns completed just 19.2% of their third downs through Week 6. Against the Bengals in Week 7, they were eight-of-19 (42.1%) and, in the upset win over the Ravens on Sunday, eight-of-15 (53.3%).
Defense: Cleveland leads the NFL in pressure rate this season (42.7%) and made Lamar Jackson uncomfortable on 50% of his dropbacks last weekend (the second time this season, they created chaos on at least half of their opponents’ pass attempts.
Fantasy: David Njoku has scored in consecutive weeks and can be used as a weekly option across all formats with confidence as the featured pass catcher in the fourth most pass-oriented offense when inside the red zone.
Betting: Since the beginning of last season, the Browns are 7-2 ATS when playing at home with a total that closes under 40 points (unders are 6-2-1 in those games).
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots beat the Jets on Sunday with 247 yards of offense. Surprisingly, that was the eighth time in eight weeks a team has won with under 250 yards of offense (the Broncos also did it to the Jets in Week 4).
QB: Jacoby Brissett has yet to clear 5.5 yards per attempt in a game this season and has two touchdown passes on 159 attempts (Will Levis thinks that’s a low rate; he has five on 125 attempts this season).
Offense: The Patriots have converted six of seven red zone trips into touchdowns over the past three weeks (Weeks 1-5: 4-of-13).
Defense: New England’s defensive game plan adjusts as much week over week as any. They blitzed 17.2% of the time on Sunday – they’ve been at 25%, the lowest in four games, but also at 40% or the highest in three games, including Weeks 6-7).
Fantasy: Rhamondre Stevenson scored a pair of touchdowns on Sunday, but his 27 carries over the past two weeks have gained just 66 yards, and if Drake Maye misses time, even more running lanes are likely to close.
Betting: The Patriots are 1-3 ATS on the road this season – they’ve had plenty of issues since Tom Brady left town, but they’ve yet to have a losing ATS road record since his departure.
Tennessee Titans
Team: The Titans have been blown out in back-to-back weeks by Super Bowl contenders, but they own a +9 point differential this season in three games that are sub-.500 this season.
QB: Mason Rudolph averaged 15.6 yards per pass in the first quarter on Sunday and 3.9 the rest of the way.
Offense: The Titans converted 46.2% of their third downs in 2020. That number dipped to 43.6% in 2021, 36.5% in 2022, and 33.5% in 2023. Through eight weeks this season? The trend continues: 30.6%.
Defense: The Titans have failed to force a turnover in five of seven games this season.
Fantasy: Calvin Ridley had 118 first-quarter receiving yards, the 10th most in a first quarter since the start of 2015. He entered the game with 56 receiving yards in his four games prior.
Betting: The Titans have failed to cover all three home games this season and are just 1-5-1 ATS over their past seven in front of their fans.
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Washington Commanders
Team: Washington begins a stretch this week where they play an NFC East team three times in four weeks (Eagles in Week 11 and Cowboys in Week 12.
QB: Against the Bears, Jayden Daniels threw 12 deep passes, five more than he had attempted in any other game.
Offense: Tress Way had five punts on Sunday against the Bears – he had four in September.
Defense: Washington has held its opponents to five first downs on 22 third-down conversion attempts over the past two weeks (22.7%). Through six weeks, that rate stood at 46.2%.
Fantasy: For the first time this season, Brian Robinson failed to score and didn’t reach 100 yards on the ground. He’s the lead man in this backfield, but without a 20-yard run in five straight and just a single catch over his past three games, this fantasy profile is a little thinner than you might assume.
Betting: The Commanders have seen their past five road games (and seven of their past eight).
New York Giants
Team: The last time Daniel Jones threw a touchdown pass at home was January 1, 2023 – one day before the Damar Hamlin injury.
QB: Monday was Daniel Jones’ fourth game this season with 20-plus completions and zero touchdown passes. Since 2020, this is the third instance in which a QB has “accomplished” that: Jared Goff did it in 2021, and … well, Daniel Jones did it in 2020.
Offense: Since 2022, only twice has an NFC team failed to score more than 18 points in at least six games through Week 8—the 2023 Giants (seven) and the 2024 Giants (six).
Defense: The Giants didn’t allow a red zone touchdown on Monday, but it didn’t matter … again. The Giants are 0-3 this season when not allowing a red zone touchdown (all other NFL teams are 20-7 this year in such spots).
Fantasy: Tyrone Tracy had 145 rushing yards, the most by a rookie drafted in the fifth round or later since Phillip Lindsay (Week 13, 2018 at Bengals: 157 rush yards).
Betting: The Giants have covered 12 of their past 15 games when playing on short rest (six straight when that game is played in front of their home crowd, including a Week 4 cover against the Cowboys).
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
Team: New Orleans has lost six straight games, matching their longest skid of the 2000s (also: Weeks 5-11, 2005).
QB: Derek Carr might return to a skeleton crew that doesn’t have the big play upside of the offense he left. Can he make it work? It’s possible – he’s completing a career-high 77.5% of his short passes this season.
Offense: The Saints have scored 45 points in their past three games—they averaged 45.5 points per game during their 2-0 start this season.
Defense: Over the last three weeks, New Orleans has created pressure on just 25% of opponent dropbacks (Weeks 1-5: 38.1%).
Fantasy: Alvin Kamara has more targets (18) than rush attempts (17) over the past two weeks. After averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game in September, he didn’t reach 70 once in October.
Betting: Since 2020, unders are 27-13 (67.5%) in Saint games played after Halloween.
Betting: The Saints have been 1-6-1 ATS since the start of 2022 when they were favored on the road.
Carolina Panthers
Team: Carolina is technically the home team next week in Germany against the Giants – their next true road game doesn’t come until December 8 (Week 14 at Philadelphia).
QB: Baby steps – Bryce Young threw a touchdown pass under pressure against the Broncos on Sunday, doubling his career total of such passes in the process.
Offense: The Panthers are averaging 4.0 yards per play in Bryce Young’s starts this season (Andy Dalton: 5.3).
Defense: Every team that has faced the Panthers this season has posted a passer rating north of 95 (last week against Denver was the fourth time this season they allowed a rate over 125).
Fantasy: Chuba Hubbard ran for 56 yards in Denver on Sunday, 59 of which came after contact.
Betting: The Panthers have failed to cover four straight at home, failing to cover by a total of 40.5 points during that stretch.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos
Team: Both the Broncos and Ravens are 5-1 over their past six games, with Denver (+66) holding the significant edge in point differential (Baltimore: +43).
QB: Over the past two weeks, Bo Nix is just 1-11 when pressured (43-52 when not pressured). The Ravens rank 27th in pressure rate this season and are coming off of their two lowest pressure rates of the season.
Offense: The Broncos picked up 64.7% of third downs on Sunday, their first game over 36.4% this season.
Defense: The Broncos allow a first down on just 19.% of opponent rush attempts, the third lowest rate in the league (Vikings and Ravens).
Fantasy: Nix is still a raw prospect, but he’s cleared six fantasy points with his legs in four straight and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of those games.
Betting: Denver has covered seven of their past nine games when installed as an underdog by more than six points.
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The Ravens are 1-2 outright when favored by at least seven points this season (they were 17-3 in such spots over the previous four seasons).
QB: Blitz at your own risk – Lamar Jackson has completed 28-of-36 passes against the blitz over the past three weeks.
Offense: In Weeks 1-5, Jackson’s sack-per-pass attempt rate was 3.3%. Since then, it has remained at 8.1%.
Defense: Baltimore’s defensive success rate through four weeks stood at 62.3%, but it has plummeted to 53.4% since
Fantasy: Over his past six games, Zay Flowers has three with over 110 receiving yards and three with no more than 20. On the plus side, three of his five end zone targets this season came on Sunday in Cleveland.
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in six of Baltimore’s last eight home games (2-1 this season).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: After winning seven of eight games in the middle of last season, Jacksonville is 3-11 in the 14 games since
QB: Trevor Lawrence’s yards per pressured pass attempt are down 26.6% from a season ago.
Offense: The Jags have won the time of possession battle just once (Week 7 vs. Patriots). Last week was the fourth time they failed to have the ball for even 27 minutes this season.
Defense: Last week, Jacksonville held the Packers out of the end zone on four red zone trips (66.7%, their rate in Weeks 1-7: 21.7%).
Fantasy: Tank Bigsby has looked explosive at times, but he needs help – in three of his past four games, he’s averaged less than two feet per carry before contact.
Betting: The Jags are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, and each of their past four failures to cover came by at least 11.5 points.
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: No offensive line allows pressure more often when not blitzed than the Eagles (44.1%, league average: 31.6%).
QB: The Eagles have won three straight games – in those games, Jalen Hurts has -2 red zone passing yards.
Offense: From 2022-23, only the Cowboys, Chiefs, and 49ers scored more first-quarter points than the Eagles. This season, Philadelphia has yet to score in the first 15 minutes. If you’re curious, their lowest-scoring season for first-quarter points over the past 20 years came in 2012 (31 points).
Defense: The Eagles hadn’t allowed an opponent to convert over 46.2% of their third downs through seven weeks. In Week 8, the Bengals went 10-of-13 (76.9%), though part of that can be attributed to a one-sided game (20-point win).
Fantasy: Jalen Hurts had his 13th game with multiple rushing touchdowns since 2021, the most in the league (Derrick Henry ranks second with 11 and James Conner third with seven over that stretch).
Betting: After Halloween, since 2020, the Eagles are 12-8-1 ATS (60%) at home and 4-16 ATS (20%) on the road. They head on the road for three of their next four after this game.
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals
Chicago Bears
Team: For the first time in the 2000s, the Bears have allowed 21 or fewer points in each of their first seven games of a season.
QB: It’s been a simple story with Caleb Williams – his passer rating is 42.8 points higher when not pressured than when he is this season.
Offense: The Bears didn’t run for even 85 yards in any of their first three games – they’ve cleared 125 rushing yards in all four games since (Week 8 at Washington: season-high 196 rushing yards).
Defense: Bend but don’t break – the Bears haven’t allowed a red zone touchdown in two of the past three weeks (that, of course, isn’t going to help when defending Jayden Daniels Hail Marys).
Fantasy: Is there a running back playing better than D’Andre Swift? Over his past four games, he’s produced 33.4% over expectation, averaging 22.6 PPR points per game in the process.
.@DAndreSwift TO THE HOUSE
📺: #CHIvsWAS on CBS pic.twitter.com/jqTPXUtLh0
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) October 27, 2024
Betting: Six straight Bear road games have come in under the closing total.
Arizona Cardinals
Team: The Cardinals are seeking their first three-game win streak since starting the 2021 season 7-0.
QB: Kyler Murray posted a 127.2 in-pocket passer rating against the Dolphins last week, his highest since Week 13, 2021.
Offense: The Cardinals beat the Dolphins last week without leading for a single offensive snap. It’s their second game this season in which every offensive snap came from behind and their second win when they were trailing for over 87% of their offensive snaps (Also: Week 5 at the 49ers).
Defense: Arizona has allowed their opponent to pick up at least half of their third downs in five of the past six games (Dolphins in Week 8: 11-of-15, 73.3%).
Fantasy: Marvin Harrison Jr.’s sliding touchdown catch was a work of art and paid the fantasy bills, but be careful – his 19.4% on-field target share was his lowest since his NFL debut. That said, he was in the slot for a season-high 32.1% of his routes, an encouraging sign of this team’s willingness to move him around.
Betting: Overs are 9-4 in Kyler Murray’s career when he starts in a game with a spread of less than three points.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions have scored 30-plus points in four straight games – it’s the first SEASON in which they’ve scored 30 points in four games during the 2000s.
QB: Detroit has won five straight games, and in those games, Jared Goff has a 146.6 in-pocket passer rating (78-94 for 1,023 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception).
Offense: Jahmyr Gibbs has a 45-plus yard rush TD in consecutive games, the fifth running back to do that since 2016 (others: Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt).
Defense: In four of their past six games, the Lions have held their opponent to an under-30 % conversion rate on third downs (last week vs. Titans: 3-0]of-11, 27.3%).
Fantasy: David Montgomery has scored in six of seven games this season, but he hasn’t cleared a dozen carries in a game since Week 3 at Arizona.
Betting: Since 2020, the Lions have been 28-13 ATS (68.3%) in games played after Halloween, which is three full games better than any other team.
Green Bay Packers
Team: The Packers ended last regular season winning six of eight games, and they’ve opened this season with a 6-2 mark (of those four losses, three came by fewer than six points).
QB: Jordan Love has thrown an interception in every game this season, and eight of nine have come when operating in the pocket.
Offense: The Packers entered the red zone on a season-high 46.2% of their drives against the Jaguars.
Defense: Green Bay forced Jacksonville to go three-and-out on 58.3% of their drives last week, the defense’s best showing this season.
Fantasy: The status of the QB position means the world in terms of fantasy efficiency for Josh Jacobs. In his last two games with Love starting, he’s come in 38.4% over expectation – in Malik Willis’ two starts, 39% under expectation.
Betting: Since 2020, the NFC North has the three top teams in over percentage in games played after Halloween (Packers: 62.8%, Lions: 61%).
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams
Team: Over their past three games, the Rams have coveted seven-of-nine red zone drives into touchdowns (prior: seven-of-17).
QB: Matthew Stafford posted his best EPA against zone in a game since Week 6, 2021 (it was the first time he posted a positive number since Week 1, the last time he had both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua)
Offense: In the return of their two star receivers, the Rams operated at their slowest pace of the season and it worked – they averaged a season-best 5.8 yards per play.
Defense: In Weeks 5-8, Los Angeles has allowed opponents to convert just 20% of third downs (Weeks 1-4: 50%).
Fantasy: Puka Nacua dropped the first target on Thursday night, but in his return to action, three of Stafford’s first four passes were directed toward the second-year weapon.
Betting: The Rams kicked off Week 8 on Thursday night – they are 6-15-1 ATS (28.6%) since the beginning of 2019 when playing on extended rest (only the Jets and Texans have been worse in such spots over that stretch). They’ve failed to cover each of their past eight games (average cover margin: -6.1 points)
Seattle Seahawks
Team: This is Seattle’s fourth home game in a five-game stretch—they’ve lost the first three and been outscored 96-54 in those contests (Giants, 49ers, and Bills).
QB: In the first four weeks this season, Geno Smith completed 81% of his out-of-pocket throws. Over the past four weeks, that rate has regressed in a major way: 35.7%.
Offense: Seattle went three-and-out on 55.6% of their drives against the Bills, their second-highest rate since November 1, 2021 (Week 9, 2023, at Ravens).
Defense: In Weeks 1-3, the Seahawks took advantage of their schedule (DEN, NE, and MIA) and allowed just 1.03 points per drive. In their five games since (DET, NYG, SF, ATL, and BUF), they are allowing 2.61 points per drive (up 153.4%)
Fantasy: Kenneth Walker III is already three receptions away from setting a career-high for a season – he has over seven PPR points as a pass catcher in all five of his games back from injury.
Betting: The Seahawks are a league-worst 14-25-1 ATS (35.9%) after Halloween since 2020 (the Rams are 23-19-1 ATS over that stretch, eighth-best).
Betting: Since 2021, the Seahawks are just 3-7 ATS in home divisional games (unders are 7-3 in those games).
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis Colts
Team: The Colts are 4-4 this season, with five games decided by a field goal or less (2-3 in those games).
QB: Pressure is one thing; seeing ghosts is another – Richardson went 6-of-20 for 78 yards and an interception against the Texans when not pressured.
Offense: The Colts gained 21.2 yards per drive in the Week 7 win against the Dolphins, their lowest rate of the season. In the loss to the Texans on Sunday, that number was 21.0.
Defense: In Weeks 1-5, the Colts forced a punt on 23.6% of drives, a rate that has spiked to 48.6% since.
Fantasy: Anthony Richardson hit Josh Downs for a 69-yard touchdown pass of the season – his third of 50-plus yards.
Betting: Indianapolis has covered eight of their past 10 road primetime games (this is their first game since Week 13, 2022).
Minnesota Vikings
Team: The Vikings have played just three true road games this season – after this week, they go on the road for three straight (Jaguars, Titans, and Bears).
QB: Sam Darnold posted his highest in-pocket passer rating of the season on Thursday night (134.0, he’s been over 106.0 in six of seven games.
Offense: In Weeks 1-4, Minnesota averaged 6.5 yards per play on first down, a rate that is down to 4.8 since.
Defense: The Vikings posted their highest pressure rate of the season in Week 7 against the Lions (58.6%) but couldn’t make Matthew Stafford uncomfortable in Week 8 (11.8%, 18 percentage points below their previous season low).
Fantasy: Against the Rams on Thursday night, Sam Darnold started hot and then struggled – 67.5% of his fantasy points as a passer were scored on Minnesota’s first two drives.
Betting: Since 2020, 74.4% of Vikings games played after Halloween have gone over the total (29-10-1, league average: 48.4%).
Betting: The Vikings are 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven games played on extended rest.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (MNF)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: This is the first of a seven-game stretch that sees Tampa Bay play five road games.
QB: Baker Mayfield has thrown for 325 yards and three touchdowns in three straight games – the last player with a four-game streak was Aaron Rodgers bridging the 2012-13 seasons.
Offense: The Bucs are averaging 2.57 points per drive, pacing for their second most this millennium (other: 2020, Super Bowl champions).
Defense: Over the past two weeks (BAL and ATL), Tampa Bay has allowed 3.6 points per drive (Weeks 1-6: 2.0).
Fantasy: We spent a lot of time last week trying to pin the tail on the Buccaneer WR most likely to step up when it proved to be the existing pieces—against the Falcons, Cade Otton, Bucky Irving, and Rachaad White accounted for 48.2% of Tampa Bay’s receiving yards and 56.8% of their receptions.
Cade Otton time. #NationalTightEndsDay
📺: #ATLvsTB on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/UKxppwoiSk— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
Betting: Tampa Bay is 4-16 ATS (20%) over their past 20 primetime games (0-2 this season in a pair of shootouts – 36-30 loss to the Falcons in Week 5 and a 41-31 loss to the Ravens in Week 7).
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: This isn’t the high-flying offense we want it to be, but there is an offensive floor that comes with Patrick Mahomes, and that’s enough—this team hasn’t lost a game in which they’ve scored over 20 points since December 4, 2022 (at Bengals).
QB: Mahomes doesn’t have a completion that traveled 20 yards in the air in October.
Offense: The Chiefs averaged 31.1 points per game in their 2022 wins. That number dropped to 25.0 last season and is even lower in their undefeated start this season (24.7).
Defense: They proved willing to ramp up the aggression last week in Vegas if they identify it as a weakness of their opponent – 47.1% blitz rate after checking in under 28% in each of their three games prior.
Fantasy: Mahomes hasn’t finished better than QB16 in six straight games and has a lower pass touchdown rate than Will Levis this season.
Betting: Mahomes has covered all three of his primetime games this season (Ravens, Falcons, and Saints) after covering just three of his most recent 11 regular season primetime games entering 2024.