Whether you’re setting your fantasy football lineups or you need just a bit more information before getting in on the NFL betting action at your favorite sportsbook, we’ve got you covered here at Pro Football Network with the most important stats, notes and insights for every NFL matchup in Week 8.
We all know how time-consuming gathering all the information can be, so we’re doing the research for you so you don’t have to.
Bye Week Schedule
- Week 8: None
- Week 9: Steelers, 49ers
- Week 10: Browns, Packers, Raiders, Seahawks
- Week 11: Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, Buccaneers
- Week 12: Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, Jets
- Week 14: Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (TNF)
Minnesota Vikings
Team: The Vikings have held a double-digit lead in all six games they’ve played this season, and they are the only team to do that in every game this season. Minnesota held a double-digit lead in just five games all of last season.
QB: Sam Darnold has one touchdown pass on 58 attempts in October (September: one touchdown every 9.6 pass attempts).
Offense: The Vikings are averaging a league-high 9.7 points per first quarter this season.
Defense: The high blitz rate gets a lot of attention, but this defense has created pressure on a league-high 41.7% of non-blitzing opponent dropbacks.
Fantasy: T.J. Hockenson could make his season debut in this game. Without Hockenson, Sam Darnold has targeted tight ends at the fifth-lowest rate of any QB this season (14.6%). Last year, Hockenson had the second-highest target rate of any TE (25%) behind Trey McBride.
Betting: The Vikings are 7-1-2 ATS over their past 10 road regular season games (2-0 this season with covers against the Giants and Packers)
Los Angeles Rams
Team: The Rams have seen each of their past four games decided by six points or fewer (they play a Vikings team that has played three straight such games to open Week 8).
QB: Matthew Stafford has thrown an interception in three straight games and doesn’t have consecutive games with a touchdown pass all season long.
Offense: The Rams have six first-quarter points this season, the second-fewest in the league (the Eagles have yet to score in the first 15 minutes).
Defense: The Rams allow 15.3 yards per deep pass this season, the fourth-highest mark in the NFL.
Fantasy: Kyren Williams has had a rushing touchdown in nine straight games. With another, he can become the fourth player this century with a double-digit rushing touchdown streak. He would join LaDainian Tomlinson (18 straight), Jonathan Taylor (11), and Priest Holmes (11).
Kyren Williams' fantasy points in his last 13 games played:
19.6
15.5
20.4
31.6
15.2
14.4
30.1
16.4
24.5
14.3
20.2
38.4
21.818 total TDs scored in that stretch
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 21, 2024
Betting: Matthew Stafford is 1-7 ATS as an underdog on Thursday’s.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: Since 2022, the Eagles have been the best team in Weeks 1-9 (20-3, 87% win rate) but rank 12th in win percentage after Week 9 (9-8, 52.9% win rate).
QB: Jalen Hurts is coming off of a double Tush Push game, his 13th regular season game with multiple rushing scores since 2021, the most in the league.
Offense: The Eagles are still the only team yet to score in the first quarter this season. Philly’s six-game streak without scoring in the first quarter is tied for the longest streak to begin a season since 2000 (done most recently by the 2021 Jets).
Defense: The Eagles allow 9.3% of passes to the slot to result in a touchdown, the third-highest rate in the league (only the Texans and Colts have been worse).
Fantasy: You had more receiving yards than DeVonta Smith last week and with the Eagles allowing pressure at the highest rate in the league (46.1%, no other team is at even 43%), the down weeks could continue.
Betting: The Eagles are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against the AFC North (0-2 ATS in Cincinnati over that stretch).
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: The Bengals are 3-3 over their past six games, with their three wins coming against teams with five victories this season (Panthers, Giants, and Browns). The three losses came against teams on the other end of the spectrum (Chiefs, Commanders, and Ravens).
QB: Joe Burrow wasn’t himself when active last season – he completed just 29.4% of his deep passes with a 59.3 passer rating on such passes after consecutive seasons with at least a 50% completion rate and 107 passer rating. Through seven weeks this season, he’s completed 57.6% of his deep passes with a 129.1 passer rating.
Offense: The Bengals are blitzed at the second-lowest rate in the league (17.3%).
Defense: The Bengals own the third-lowest sack rate in the NFL (4.6% of dropbacks) through seven weeks.
Fantasy: Chase Brown received 60% of the Bengals’ rush attempts in Week 7, the third straight week he’s led them in carries. Brown’s percentage of team carries has increased six weeks in a row (every game since Week 2).
Betting: The Bengals are 0-3 ATS at home this season – they covered eight of 12 such games in the two seasons prior.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The Ravens play three divisional games over the next four weeks – Week 11 will mark the end of their road divisional games this regular season.
QB: Lamar Jackson completed 11-of-14 passes for 181 yards and two touchdowns in the first half on Monday night in Tampa Bay. The reigning MVP has a first-half touchdown pass in five straight games, matching the second-longest streak of his career (he had nine straight games bridging the 2019-20 seasons).
Offense: The Ravens have scored 30-plus points in four straight games, the third time they’ve done that in a single season since the start of 2000. A fifth straight game would match their longest streak over that stretch (Weeks 7-11 in 2023, Weeks 7-12 in 2019).
Defense: Baltimore entered Week 7 with three interceptions – they picked off Baker Mayfield twice in the stretch of three first-half passes.
Fantasy: Zay Flowers is turning into one of the more frustrating fantasy options in the league. Through seven weeks, he now has four games with under 40 receiving yards and three with north of 90
Betting: Overs have come through in nine of Baltimore’s past 13 games played on short rest.
Cleveland Browns
Team: The Browns have lost five straight games and haven’t scored more than 16 points in any of them – that’s the longest such streak within a single season since the 2017 Texans (Weeks 12-17).
QB: Deshaun Watson’s season is over – no QB who kept his job through seven weeks was averaging fewer yards per pass this year (5.3).
Offense: The Browns have punted on most of their drives this season (50.6%, pacing for the highest rate since both the Rams and 49ers punted on 50.8% of their possessions in 2016).
Defense: The Browns have allowed the second-lowest completion percentage this season (58.8%) but also have the third-worst interception rate (0.5%).
Fantasy: David Njoku scored last week and has a pair of top-10 finishes at the tight end position this season – if there is going to be a bright spot in this passing game, he seems poised to be it.
Betting: Home underdogs getting more than seven points have covered 60.2% of the time since 2020 (44-29-2).
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions
Tennessee Titans
Team: The Titans have only trailed at halftime in one of their six games this season. However, Tennessee is outscored 94-43 (-51) in the second half, which is the worst second-half point differential of any team this season.
QB: The decision-making has been an issue, but Will Levis’ completion percentage is 15 points higher this season than last when under pressure (55.6%).
Offense: Think things are working better with Mason Rudolph instead of Levis? The Titans are averaging -0.19 EPA per play with Levis on the field, which would rank 30th. With Rudolph on the field, the Titans are averaging -0.17 EPA per play, which would rank 28th.
Defense: The Titans are allowing a league-low 5.7 yards per play-action pass this season
Fantasy: Calvin Ridley has proven to be the definition of empty calories when it comes to targets over the past two weeks – three catches on 17 targets for 42 yards. Him being targeted on 28.3% of his routes over that stretch is great, but let him serve as a reminder that limitations under center can tank the value of any player, even if the role is strong.
Betting: The Titans have covered six of their past eight indoor games (average cover margin: +7.5 points).
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions have a plus-62 point differential through six games played. It’s their second-best point differential through six games in the last 40 years (+
QB: Jared Goff has posted at least a 140 passer rating in three straight games. That’s tied for the longest streak in NFL history, along with Aaron Rodgers (2011), Kurt Warner (1999), and Roger Staubach (1971).
Jared Goff was under pressure on a season-high 51.7% of his dropbacks against the Vikings, finishing 10-of-11 for 164 yards and 2 touchdowns under pressure.
Goff is averaging a league-high 11.6 YPA under pressure this season; no other QB is over 9.0.
Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/LQCg9V1adR
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 20, 2024
Offense: The Lions didn’t average more than 2.36 points per drive in any of their first three games this season. Since, however, they’ve been at 2.82 or better, averaging a difficult-to-comprehend 3.53 points per drive over that stretch.
Defense: In Weeks 3-6, the Lions blitzed on just 28.4% of opponent dropbacks, spiking to 38.9% last week in Minnesota without Aidan Hutchinson.
Fantasy: Sam LaPorta has three finishes as a top 12 tight end and three finishes outside of the top 20.
Betting: Since the start of the 2021 season, the Lions have had the best home ATS team in the league (20-8, 71.4%).
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins
Arizona Cardinals
Team: Sunday will mark the final game of a four-game run that saw Arizona play in a different city in four straight weeks (they return home in Weeks 9-10 before going on bye in Week 11).
QB: Kyler Murray entered October without a touchdown run longer than 22 yards in his career – he had a 50-yarder in Week 5 against the 49ers and added a 44-yarder to his resume on Monday night against the Chargers.
Offense: James Conner was either handed the ball or targeted on 12 of Arizona’s first 25 plays from scrimmage on Monday night against the Chargers.
Defense: No team in the NFL forces three-and-outs at a lower rate than the Cardinals this season.
Fantasy: Conner has reached 100 scrimmage yards in three of his past four games and has at least 19 touches in five of seven. The usage is great, but it also comes with a warning – the next time Conner goes through an NFL season without missing multiple games will be his first.
Betting: The Cardinals are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight games played on short rest.
Miami Dolphins
Team: By EPA, the Dolphins have the fourth worst special teams in the NFL through seven weeks (on the bright side, the bottom five is loaded with viable teams: Bills, Jets, Ravens, and 49ers).
QB: Tua Tagovailoa might return this week, and that provides hope. However, let’s not forget that he has had multiple touchdown passes in just one of his past eight games (playoffs included).
Offense: Remember when the Dolphins scored 70 points in Week 3 last season against the Broncos? They’ve put 70 points on the board this season.
Defense: Just 2% of passes against the Dolphins have resulted in a touchdown, the lowest rate in the league.
Fantasy: In Tyreek Hill’s last 17 games with at least eight targets from Tagovailoa:
- 199 targets
- 132 catches
- 1,853 yards
- 13 touchdowns
Betting: The Dolphins are 0-3 ATS at home this season – they haven’t had a losing ATS season in front of their home fans since the 2015 team led by Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Miller.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
New York Jets
Team: The Jets were 4-3 through seven games last season and scored on 29.4% of their drives. They are 2-5 this season, scoring on 30.3% of their drives.
QB: The quick hitters that Rodgers has thrived on in the past are gone. He’s thrown 123 passes in 2.7 seconds or less over the past four games, and none of them have resulted in a touchdown (four interceptions).
Offense: During their four-game losing streak, the Jets have scored 61 points, including the Hail Mary to end the first half of Week 6 against the Bills.
Defense: Only the Falcons (3.9) allow fewer yards per reception after the catch than the Jets (4.3).
Fantasy: Breece Hall has two top-10 finishes since the coaching change (he had one top-10 week prior to it).
Betting: Aaron Rodgers is 7-4 ATS for his career against the AFC East with unders cashing in eight of those 11 games.
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots have lost four of their past five games by at least 16 points, and they lost four of their previous 56 regular-season games by at least 16 points.
QB: Drake Maye has multiple touchdown passes and at least 15 rushing yards in each of his first two career starts – he joins Drew Lock (2019) and Bruce Gradkowski (2006) as the only QBs to do that over the past 20 seasons.
Offense: The Patriots’ rushing success rate has been 8.8% since Drake Maye became the starting quarterback two weeks ago. No other offense has had a lower rate than 20% in that span.
Defense: New England allowed 30 points in regulation through the first two weeks this season – since: 28.4 PPG.
Fantasy: If you extend Hunter Henry’s numbers in Drake Maye’s starts for a full season, you’re looking at 94 catches for 1,131 yards and 8.5 touchdowns.
Betting: The Patriots are the worst home ATS team since the start of the 2021 season (9-18-2, 33.3%).
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons
Team: The Falcons have the league’s worst average starting field position (their own 26.8-yard line).
QB: Is Kirk Cousins getting a hang of this system? Over the past three weeks, he’s completed 70.4% of passes when blitzed (Weeks 1-4: 46.7%).
Offense: Despite the one-sided loss to the Seahawks last week, the Falcons have improved their third down conversion rate in four straight games. In Weeks 1-3, they converted 22.2% of third downs, a rate that has improved to 46.2% since.
Defense: The Falcons (50.7%) and Panthers (55.8%) are the only teams in the league allowing points on most drives this season.
Fantasy: Drake London is starting to live up to the promise when he entered the NFL – he’s been a top 20 fantasy receiver in five of the past six weeks.
Betting: Kirk Cousins has covered five straight road games (his last three with Minnesota and his first two with Atlanta).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: This is Tampa Bay’s fourth home game in a six-week stretch – they go on the road for five of seven contests from Week 9-Week 16.
QB: Baker Mayfield’s fourth red zone pass of Week 7 was intercepted by Marlon Humphrey. In Weeks 1-6, he was nearly perfect inside the 20-yard line: 20-of-25 with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Offense: The Buccaneers have scored on their opening drive in four straight games, allowing this team to play with a lead more often than not.
Defense: Tampa Bay has been outscored 44-7 in second quarters over the past two games (in the other three quarters of those games, they’ve outscored the opposition 75-24).
Fantasy: Mike Evans left Week 7 with a hamstring injury that had his status in question mid-week – he turned seven targets into 23.2 PPR fantasy points against the Falcons in their Week 5 meeting.
Betting: On short rest, Baker Mayfield is 2-3 ATS when playing on the road (5-1 ATS in such spots at home).
Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers
Team: The Packers have won three straight games and are seeking their first four-game win streak since December 2022.
QB: Jordan Love has thrown multiple TD in eight straight games. That’s the fourth-longest streak by a QB age 25 or younger, behind Patrick Mahomes (14), Brett Favre (12), and Dan Marino (10).
Offense: The Packers are explosive, but since 2022, they have ranked 23rd in red zone offense (54.2% this season, ranking 18th behind the Panthers, Titans, and Jets).
Defense: Green Bay is allowing the fourth-lowest third-down completion percentage (46.7%) and has yet to allow a third-down touchdown pass.
Fantasy: Josh Jacobs caught the first touchdown of his career on Sunday and now has at least four catches or 18 carries in all four games since Jordan Love returned.
Betting: The Packers beat the Rams 24-19 (closing total: 49.5) in Week 5, snapping a streak of six straight overs in Jordan Love road starts.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: This team returns from London to begin, without much question, their most difficult four-game straight of the season (vs. Packers, at Eagles, vs. Vikings, and at Lions).
QB: Trevor Lawrence has posted three straight passer ratings north of 90 on the heels of three straight under 90 (Jacksonville is 2-1 after an 0-4 start).
Offense: By EPA per game, this is the worst offense in the league (7.6% worse than the Panthers).
Defense: The Jaguars own the league’s worst red zone defense, allowing a touchdown on 78.3% of such drives.
Fantasy: Tank Bigsby has multiple rushing scores in two of his past three and at least 90 rushing yards in three of four. His role is trending toward that of a bellcow (Travis Etienne – hamstring), but with just one catch against his 67 carries this season is a ceiling capper.
Betting: In their three games before the London trip last season, the Jags were 1-2 ATS (average cover margin: -8.5 points). In their first three games back in the States, they went 3-0 ATS (average cover margin: +10.0 points).
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Team: One team this season is giving away at least five minutes in time of possession per game, and it’s the Colts – at -7:34 per game.
QB: Anthony Richardson’s 48.5% completion percentage is the lowest through a team’s first seven games since Josh Freeman in 2013.
Offense: The Colts are allowing pressure on just 27.9% of dropbacks, the third-lowest rate in the league.
Defense: Indianapolis has allowed a touchdown on just 2.2% of deep passes, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
Fantasy: Tyler Goodson has finished each of the past three weeks as RB33 or better (Trey Sermon has finished worse than that in the past two weeks).
Betting: The Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games with a projected point total north of 45 points.
Houston Texans
Team: A win would be Houston’s third straight over Indianapolis, tying their longest win streak ever vs. the Colts (also done from 2015-16).
QB: C.J. Stroud ranks second in EPA per dropback against man coverage (0.36), but only 24th against zone (-0.11). The Colts play zone coverage at the third-highest rate of any defense (78.7%).
Offense: The Texans allowed a 51.7% pressure rate in Sunday’s loss to the Packers, their second-highest in C.J. Stroud’s 22 career starts.
Defense: The Texans have allowed a touchdown on a league-high 7% of opponent passes.
Fantasy: Nico Collins was injured on Stroud’s way to a second straight game with over 330 passing yards and has missed two games now – Stroud has 278 yards through the air in those contests. In Weeks 1-5, Stroud completed 51.2% of his 8.2 deep pass attempts per game and was threatening defenses vertically on a consistent basis. Since, he’s at 36.4% on 5.5 attempts per game.
Betting: Unders are 9-4 since the start of 2020 when the Texans host a divisional opponent (69.2%).
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers
New Orleans Saints
Team: The Saints have lost five straight since starting 2-0. They’re the first team since the 2015 Dallas Cowboys to lose at least five in a row after starting 2-0 (that Cowboys team fell to 2-7 after starting QB Tony Romo was injured in Week 2).
Team: The Saints have won the past 11 games played in Week 8, out-scoring opponents 361-227 (+12.2 PPG) during that run.
QB: In the first two weeks of this season, Derek Carr completed 61.5% of his deep passes with a 113.0 passer rating on such passes. His numbers since (45.4 passer rating and 35% complete) look more like Spencer Rattler than an MVP candidate.
Offense: All the passing game injuries have also killed the running game. Since Week 3, the Saints are averaging 3.1 yards per carry on running back carries, second-worst in the NFL. That includes the third-fewest yards before contact per carry (2.2).
Defense: The Saints have allowed 502 rush yards in the last two games, their most in a two-game span since 1980. For the first time since 2012, New Orleans has given up 200+ rush yards in consecutive games; the last team to allow 200+ rush yards in three straight games was the 2019 Jacksonville Jaguars.
Fantasy: Alvin Kamara has not had a 10-plus-yard carry in three straight games, and over his past four, despite having a pair of rushing touchdowns, the majority (56.9%) of his fantasy points have come as a receiver.
Betting: The Saints have seen 13 of their past 14 games played on extended rest go under the projected total (most recently, Week 5 at Chiefs, a 26-13 loss with a 43.5-point closing total).
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: The average NFL game this season has seen 44.8 points scored – not a single Chargers game has reached 40 points yet.
QB: On Monday night, Justin Herbert became the first QB since Ryan Tannehill (Week 2, 2021) to throw for 345 yards without a touchdown or interception.
Offense: JK Dobbins was the story of the first two weeks this season (27 carries for 266 yards, 9.9 yards per carry), but he has failed to average even 4.0 yards per carry in the four games since, checking in under 3.0 in three of those games.
Defense: Los Angeles allows a score on just 25% of drives this season, the lowest rate in the league and 13 percentage points better than the league average.
Fantasy: The Chargers are amongst the most run-centric offenses, and on Monday night, when they took to the air, the early passes weren’t exactly going to the players on fantasy rosters – Will Dissly and Simi Fehoko saw eight of Justin Herbert’s first 10 targets.
Betting: Seven of Justin Herbert’s last eight home starts have finished under the total, including each of the past four.
Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills
Team: This is an important stretch for the Bills. They have the Seahawks this week, the Dolphins in Week 9, and the Colts in Week 10. After that, they play three Super Bowl contenders in their next four games (Chiefs, 49ers, and Lions).
QB: Josh Allen has thrown 12 TD with 0 interceptions this season. He’s the second QB to throw at least 12 TD with no picks through seven games in NFL history (Alex Smith had 15 TDs and 0 Int in 2017 on the Kansas City Chiefs).
Offense: The Bills have the best turnover differential in the league through seven weeks (+1.43 per game).
Defense: The Bills allow just 4.2 yards per fourth-quarter pass, the second-lowest rate in the league (Cowboys).
Fantasy: Amari Cooper was targeted on five of his 12 routes (41.7%), which is easily the highest target rate by any Bills player in a game this season. It’s also the highest target rate in any game of Cooper’s career (min. 5 routes run).
Betting: #BillsMafia might travel well, but the offense hasn’t of late – unders are 15-5 in Buffalo’s past 20 road regular season games.
Seattle Seahawks
Team: Seattle has a pair of home games before its Week 10 bye. It comes out of the bye with three divisional games in a four-game stretch.
QB: Geno Smith’s in-pocket touchdown rate is trending down for a second consecutive season, while his interception rate is ticking up again.
Offense: The Seahawks are averaging 4.9 offensive penalties per game (only the Browns average more).
Defense: The Seahawks allowed a league-low 5.4 yards per pass to the slot this season (NFL average: 7.7 yards).
Fantasy: Kenneth Walker III has been a top-15 running back (PPR) in every game he has played this season.
Betting: The Seahawks are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven home games under Geno Smith.
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos
Carolina Panthers
Team: The Panthers have created pressure on just 21.9% of their blitzes this season (the NFL average nets out around 41%).
QB: Andy Dalton has failed to average even six yards per pass attempt in all four games since that shocking performance, throwing an interception in each of those contests (held without a touchdown toss in two of them).
Offense: The Panthers have scored 37 points in three October games (they are allowing 38 PPG in those games).
Defense: The Panthers allow 34.7 PPG (243 total points allowed). That’s tied with the 2020 Dallas Cowboys for the most points allowed through seven games in the last 50 seasons.
Fantasy: Jonathan Brooks’ debut is coming, but Chuba Hubbard has scored in four of his past five games and has been an RB2 or better in six straight.
Betting: Since the start of last season, the Panthers are 3-8 ATS on the road when the total closes under 45 points.
Denver Broncos
Team: The Broncos are seeking to improve to 5-3. They haven’t been above .500 through eight games since 2016, when they were 6-2.
QB: Bo Nix scrambled on 21.2% of his dropbacks in Week 7 vs. the Saints, tied with Jayden Daniels for the highest scramble rate in a game this season.
Offense: The Broncos averaged 6.1 yards per rush in Week 6 vs. the Chargers and 6.4 yards per rush in Week 7 vs. the Saints. It’s the first time Denver has averaged at least six yards per rush in consecutive games since 2011 (Weeks 8-9), during Tim Tebow’s stint as their starting QB.
Defense: The Broncos had a season-high 21 pressures in Week 7 vs. the Saints. That included six pressures from Zach Allen, who has accounted for 35% of Denver’s pressures this season (third-highest among interior linemen behind Chris Jones and Kobie Turner).
Fantasy: Courtland Sutton was not targeted for the first time in his career in Week 7. Sutton’s 28 routes run without a target were tied for the second-most by a wide receiver this season, trailing Justin Watson of the Chiefs (31 in Week 5, also vs. the Saints).
Betting: Under tickets have cashed in eight of Denver’s past nine played on extended rest (this is their first game of 2024) – they’ve covered eight of their past 11 such games.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: The Chiefs haven’t lost consecutive games vs. the Raiders since 2011-12 (three straight). Kansas City’s last loss before its current 12-game win streak (including playoffs) was at home to the Raiders on Christmas Day 2023.
QB:23 quarterbacks have started all their team’s games this season. Patrick Mahomes’ TD-Int ratio (6-8) is tied for the worst out of that whole group (Matthew Stafford has thrown 3 TD to 4 Int for the Rams).
Offense: Are the Chiefs a smashmouth offense now? Kansas City has run by design on 48.8% of its plays, far and away its highest in any season since Patrick Mahomes became the starting QB (the prior high was 38.9% in 2018). That includes a 57.9% run rate on the first down, and in the first season with Mahomes, they’ve been above 50% on the first down.
Defense: The Chiefs have allowed a touchdown on just 47.4% of red zone trips, pacing them for their best rate since the 2014 team (38.9%).
Fantasy: This is a conservative offense, but as Xavier Worthy’s role increases, there is hope – Patrick Mahomes is completing a career-high 53.6% of his passes thrown 15-plus yards down the field.
Betting: Seven of Kansas City’s past eight road divisional games have come in under the projected point total, though the one exception was Week 12, 2023 … at Vegas (31-17 win with a total of 42.5 points).
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: The Raiders own the worst per-game turnover differential in the league this season (-1.9).
QB: Gardner Minshew has two more games with multiple interceptions than multiple touchdown passes this season and misfired on 19 of 34 passes last week against a vulnerable Rams defense.
Offense: Brock Bowers has received 25.1% of the Raiders’ targets this season. That’s on track to be the highest target share by any rookie tight end since at least 2000 and the highest by a TE period since Mark Andrews for the 2021 Ravens (25.9%).
Defense: The Raiders own the fifth-highest sack rate on play-action attempts this season (8.9%).
Fantasy: Brock Bowers has five top-five finishes at the position this season, and after not seeing a red zone target in any of his first three games, he’s had a red zone in scoring position in every game since.
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in four of Vegas’ past five home games (2-1 through seven weeks this season).
Minshew to Bowers!
📺: #LVvsLAC on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/5454sygpHP— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
Chicago Bears
Team: The Bears give away just one first down via penalty per game this season (tied for the third-fewest; only the Steelers and 49ers allow fewer).
QB: Caleb Williams took a few games to look like the prodigy he was sold as, but we are moving in that direction:
Weeks 1-3:
-
- 59.3% completion percentage
- 5.3 yards per attempt
- 65.3 passer rating
- 13.7 pressure passer rating
- 0.5 touchdown-to-interception rate
Weeks 4-6:
-
-
- 74.1% completion percentage
- 8.5 yards per attempt
- 122.8 passer rating
- 109.6 pressure passer rating
- 7.0 touchdown-to-interception rate
-
Offense: The scheming hasn’t been effective for the Bears – only the Browns are averaging fewer yards per play in first quarters than Chicago this season.
Defense: The Bears are the only defense in the league this season to have allowed a touchdown to the slot.
Fantasy: There is one running back who has strung together three straight top-six finishes at the position this season, and his name is D’Andre Swift.
Betting: The Bears are coming off their bye and have seen five of their past six games on extra rest go under the total (average difference to the projected total: -5.3 points).
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders lead the NFL with a plus-66 point differential. It’s Washington’s best point differential through seven games since 1991, the season of their last Super Bowl title.
QB: Jayden Daniels is averaging 8.4 yards per pass this season, a rate only Brock Purdy topped in 2023.
Offense: Last week was the third time the Commanders have posted at least a 52% success rate in a game this season. The rest of the NFL has done that six times combined, and no team has done it more than once.
Defense: The Commanders allow 9.4 yards per fourth-quarter pass, the second-most in the league (Jaguars).
Fantasy: Brian Robinson Jr. has been a top-25 running back in every game he has played this season, but be careful – he’s gone consecutive games without a target and four straight without a 20-yard rush.
Betting: When rookie QBs oppose one another, the home team has covered six of the past eight.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (SNF)
Dallas Cowboys
Team: Dallas beat Cleveland by 16 points in Week 1. Since then, they have a 2-3 record with a -58 point differential.
QB: Brock Purdy threw 17 passes on Sunday with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings all off the field. He only had 14 career pass attempts with his top 3 WRs off the field before that, including playoffs.
Offense: Dallas has converted just 37.5% of its red zone trips into touchdowns, putting it on pace to be the worst Cowboys team of the 2000s (current low: 38.5% in 2002).
Defense: The Cowboys have the worst run defense in the league by EPA this season.
Fantasy: Rico Dowdle has taken over this backfield, and with the Cowboys owning the lowest opposed loaded box rate, we should have running lanes moving forward.
Betting: Since the beginning of last season, the Cowboys are 5-0 ATS on extended rest (Week 7: bye), covering three of their last four games by at least 15 points.
San Francisco 49ers
Team: Don’t forget that it took a little time for this team to get into form last season – they opened 5-3 before rattling off six straight wins after their Week 9 bye. After this game, San Francisco takes their bye.
QB: Brock Purdy’s yards per pressured pass attempt are down 18.3% from a season ago, and he faces off against a defense this week that ranks fifth in pressure rate.
Offense: The 49ers have converted just 45.2% of their red zone trips into touchdowns this season, their lowest rate since 2018 (41.2%).
Defense: The 49ers allow a league-high 9.5 yards per pass to the slow this season largely because those slot routes are extending down the field (11.1 aDOT, fourth highest).
Fantasy: Brandon Aiyuk (46.9%) is easily the team leader in target rate on the perimeter. If we view Deebo Samuel and George Kittle as the primary targets with Aiyuk now done for the season, it’ll be the receiver who assumes that usage. This season, Samuel has been targeted on 38.9% of his perimeter routes, while Kittle’s rate sits at a predictably low 2.5%.
Betting: The 49ers have covered six straight games against the NFC East (Week 5, 2023 vs. DAL: 42-10 win as a 3.5-point favorite).
New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (MNF)
New York Giants
Team: The Giants haven’t won a Week 8 game in a decade (seven straight losses), but their last such win came in the state of Pennsylvania – the three-headed monster of Eli Manning, Peyton Hillis, and Victor Cruz led New York over Matt Barkley’s Eagles in 2013.
QB: Daniel Jones’ out-of-pocket completion rate sits at a career-low 44.4%, with just 16.7% of such attempts resulting in a first down.
Offense: The Giants have scored a touchdown on just 11.8% of their possessions this season (12.6% last season), putting them on pace for their worst showing since the 2003 team scored a touchdown on 11.2% of drives.
Defense: The Giants have intercepted just 0.5% of passes this season, a rate that is better than only the Jaguars (0.4%).
Fantasy: Malik Nabers didn’t produce for his fantasy managers in his return to action last week, and this is a tough matchup, but 72.8% of yards gained against the Steelers come through the air, the third-highest rate in the league).
Betting: New York has covered three straight long-rest games, and over tickets have come through for all three.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: The Steelers are starting drives, on average, on their 32.4-yard line, the fourth-best average starting field position in the NFL.
QB: Russell Wilson averaged 0.23 EPA per dropback in his Steelers debut. Justin Fields has hit that mark just five times in 46 career games (his high-water mark in his six Steelers games was 0.17).
Offense: The Steelers have scored 32 and 37 points in the last two weeks after averaging 18.4 PPG over their first five weeks. Pittsburgh will try to score 30+ points in three straight games for the first time since 2015 (had a six-game streak from Weeks 9-15 that year).
Defense: The Steelers have yet to allow a point in the third quarter this season (outscoring teams 46-0). Pittsburgh is the only team that has not allowed a point in any quarter this season.
Fantasy: Russell Wilson scored 24.9 fantasy points against the Jets on Sunday Night – his most fantasy points scored in a game in 400 days and the most a QB has scored against the Jets in 1,388 days (Tom Brady, Week 17, 2021).
Betting: The Steelers have covered seven of their past eight long-rest spots (average cover margin: +4.5 points).