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Bye Week Schedule
- Week 5: Lions, Chargers, Eagles, Titans
- Week 6: Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, Vikings
- Week 7: Bears, Cowboys
- Week 9: Steelers, 49ers
- Week 10: Browns, Packers, Raiders, Seahawks
- Week 11: Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, Buccaneers
- Week 12: Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, Jets
- Week 14: Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (TNF)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: The Bucs outgained the Eagles 186-0 in the first quarter. That was Tampa Bay’s best yardage margin in any quarter since 2019, and the Eagles’ worst in any quarter since 2018.
Team: The Bucs are seeking their fourth straight road division win. If they win four straight, they will tie the longest streak in franchise history (it was also done in 1979).
QB: Baker Mayfield has two games this season (Weeks 1 and 4) with 285+ pass yards, 2+ pass TD, and 10+ rushing yards – the rest of the NFL has two such games (C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy have one apiece).
Offense: The Bucs have reached the red zone on 36.6% of their drives this season, a significant growth from their 26.2% rate a season ago.
Defense: The Buccaneers had 6 sacks Sunday vs the Eagles, triple their total from the first three weeks combined (2). Their 47.4% pressure rate was also a season-high (31.5% pressure rate in the first 3 weeks).
Fantasy: Bucky Irving ranks 6th in yards per carry this season (5.8), while Rachaad White ranks dead last (2.8). Irving played a season-high 40.5% of the offensive snaps on Sunday and had four rush attempts from inside the 10-yard line (0 through the first 3 games).
Betting: Mayfield has covered five straight regular-season games played on short rest (the under has come through in four of those games).
Atlanta Falcons
Team: The Falcons had two non-offensive TD in Sunday’s win over the Saints after having one during the 2023 season. Atlanta won without scoring an offensive TD for the first time since 2004 (had lost 22 straight when not reaching the end zone on offense).
QB: For the first time in his career, Kirk Cousins has three straight games with 20+ completions and under 245 passing yards.
Offense: The Falcons rank 29th in third-down conversion percentage (26.3%), including 1-6 (16.7%) on 3rd-and-short, easily the worst in the league.
Defense: The Falcons have played the Steelers, Eagles, Chiefs, and Saints – they are allowing just 6.2 yards per pass (improved from 6.8 last season).
Fantasy: Bijan Robinson had eight weekly finishes better than PPR RB15 last season – his next such performance will be his first of 2024.
Betting: During his career, when playing a regular season game on short rest, Kirk Cousins led teams to cash over tickets at a 79.2% rate (19-5).
New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings (London)
New York Jets
Team: The Jets have won 4 straight games following a loss, tied for their longest streak since at least 2000.
QB: Aaron Rodgers has seen his pass attempt count (21-30-35-42) and his rushing attempt count (1-2-3-5) increase each week this season.
Offense: The Jets have the third-highest third-down conversion rate (46.3%), including the best on third-and-long, which is 7+ yards to go (40%). Last year, the Jets ranked last in third-and-long conversions (12.8%).
Defense: The Jets have allowed the fewest yards per attempt (5.4) on passes between the numbers. On the flip side, Sam Darnold ranks 2nd in yards per attempt (12.3) and 1st in EPA per dropback (0.58) on passes between the numbers.
Fantasy: This season, Braelon Allen has produced 44.1% over fantasy expectations, while Breece Hall sits at 9.1% below expectation through four weeks.
Betting: Seven straight Sunday morning London games have gone under the total. The last two games (Colts/Patriots and Dolphins/Chiefs) in this window saw a total of 51 points scored – the cumulative projected total for those games was 94 points.
Minnesota Vikings
Team: The Vikings are seeking to start 5-0 for the first time since 2016. Bizarrely, 2 of the last 3 times Minnesota has started 5-0 or better, they’ve missed the playoffs (2016, 2003).
QB: Sam Darnold is the 6th QB since the 1970 merger to pass for at least 11 TD in his first four games with a franchise. The others are Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Matthew Stafford, and Mark Rypien.
Offense: Scripted success. In quarters with extra prep time (first and third), the Vikings have scored a league-high 66 points. In quarters two and four, they rank in the middle of the pack with 50 points scored.
Defense: The Vikings have allowed a league-low three first-quarter points this season (they are +35 points in the first 15 minutes of games and +22 the rest of the way).
Fantasy: The game script remains elite for this running game. The Vikings have been trailing for just 2.2% of their offensive snaps (no other team is under 16%).
Betting: Unders are 5-1 when the Vikings play an AFC opponent since Brian Flores took over this defense. In the four seasons before that hire, overs were 13-4-1 (76.5%) when Minnesota played out of conference.
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Carolina Panthers
Team: The Panthers are seeking back-to-back road wins after losing 10 straight away from home. Carolina hasn’t won back-to-back road games since 2021; they had 2 road wins from 2022-23 combined.
QB: Andy Dalton has five touchdown passes on 77 attempts over the past two weeks – Bryce Young has four on 370 attempts over his last 12 starts.
Offense: Since Dalton took over at quarterback, the Panthers have averaged 2.61 points per drive, fifth-best over that span. For perspective, that would have ranked third last season behind the Cowboys and 49ers.
Defense: The Panthers have the worst red zone TD pct allowed this season (91.7%), as they’ve allowed offenses to reach the end zone on 11 of 12 red zone drives. Among teams to face 10+ red zone drives through 4 games, that ranks 4th-worst since 2000.
Fantasy: Diontae Johnson has outscored Justin Jefferson in terms of PPR points in both weeks, during which Andy Dalton was under the center for Carolina.
Betting: Andy Dalton was 36-27-3 ATS (57.1%) on the road as the starter of the Bengals, but the journeyman is just 6-10 ATS (37.5%) away from home since.
Chicago Bears
Team: Do rookies improve with time? The past decade would say, at the very least, their team does. From 2014-23, rookie QBs …
- September: 29.9% win rate
- October: 34.7% win rate
- November-December: 36.9% win rate
QB: Caleb Williams completed just 5-of-19 passes when pressured in his first two starts (26.3%), a rate that he’s improved to 53.3% (8-of-15) since.
Offense: After ranking 31st in yards per rush (3.0) from Weeks 1-3, the Bears averaged a season-high 4.7 yards per rush Sunday vs. the Rams and had more Rush touchdowns (2) than their first 3 games combined (1). Now, they face a Carolina defense that ranks 23rd in yards per rush allowed (4.6).
Defense: The Bears have allowed no more than 21 points in all four games this season and in each of their past 10 regular-season games — Chicago’s longest streak since Weeks 5-16 of 2005 (2005: 11-5 record, NFC North champions).
Fantasy: D’Andre Swift’s first touchdown of the season came on a 36-yard burst in the fourth quarter last week – a single play worth more than any of his first three games as a Bear.
Betting: The Bears have covered in 5 straight home games. That’s the longest active streak in the NFL and the Bears’ longest streak since a 7-game streak from 2005-06.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens
Team: In Weeks 2-5 last season, the Ravens went 2-2 with a +18 point differential (they went 13-4 for the season). In Weeks 1-4 this season, the Ravens are 2-2 with a +18 point differential.
QB: Lamar Jackson has three touchdown passes on 33 attempts over the past two weeks (two on 75 attempts to open the season).
Offense: Despite revamping their offensive line, the Ravens have allowed the 2nd-lowest pressure rate (22.4%). Last season, the Ravens ranked 19th in pressure rate allowed (36.3%).
Offense: The Ravens have rushed for at least 100 yards in 37 straight games, tied with the Bills (1973-76) for the 4th-longest streak in NFL history. With another game, they’ll tie the 3rd-longest streak in NFL history, held by the 1935-39 Lions.
Defense: Kyle Van Noy has had multiple sacks in three straight games and ranks 2nd in the NFL in sacks (6.0) behind Aidan Hutchinson. He is tied with Justin Houston (2022) for the most consecutive multi-sack games in Ravens history.
Fantasy: Mark Andrews has more drops (one) than catches (zero) on his 14 routes run over the past two weeks. Taysom Hill was ruled out of Week 4 at halftime – he finished the week with more PPR fantasy points than Andrews has this season.
Betting: Lamar Jackson is 7-3 ATS in Jackson’s 10 road divisional games
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: The Bengals have lost three straight home games with Joe Burrow at QB, which is their longest streak since drafting Burrow in 2020.
QB: Joe Burrow has posted a triple digit Passer Rating in three straight games, matching the second longest streak of his career (2021: five straight).
Offense: The Bengals have scored 33 points in consecutive games – they haven’t done it in three straight since Carson Palmer’s led team Weeks 11-13 in 2005 (Rudi Johnson and Chad Johnson both had over 1,400 scrimmage yards that season).
Defense: The Bengals rank last in defensive success rate against the run (48.6%). Now they face a Ravens rushing offense that ranks 3rd in success rate (48.8%).
Fantasy: It was one game, but Tee Higgins earned targetes against the Panthers at an elite rate. He was targeted on 37% of his routes when on the field, the third-highest rate of his career.
Betting: The Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their past seven divisional games, failing to cover by an average of 8.3 points (overs are 5-2 in those seven games).
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Team: Miami has their bye in Week 6, and if they can stay afloat until then, they may have a chance to contend, as they’ve been one of the better post-bye teams in recent seasons.
- 2020: 5-1 in the six weeks following their bye
- 2021: 3-1 in the four weeks following their bye
- 2023: 5-1 in their six weeks following their bye
In Weeks 7-12, the Dolphins play the Colts, Cardinals, Bills, Rams, Raiders, and Patriots.
QB: Tyler Huntley turned 22 pass attempts into just 96 passing yards against the Titans in Week 4, but he did funnel 61.9% of targets to his two standout receivers.
Offense: Huntley’s one-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter on Monday night ended a 30-drive stretch of touchdown-less football.
Defense: The Titans entered Week 4 winless. They scored more points against the Dolphins (31) than Miami has scored in total during its three-game losing streak (25).
Fantasy: Tyreek Hill spoke about a “crazy game plan” ahead of Tyler Huntley’s first start. At some level, he was right — he had more targets (four) than receiving yards (three) in the first half, something most fantasy managers would label as “crazy.”
Betting: This is Miami’s first road divisional game of the season – they are 6-2-1 ATS (75%) in such spots over the past three seasons (that stretch includes a perfect 3-0 ATS record against the Patriots, though they only covered by a total of 10.5 points across those contests).
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots are a league-worst 1-9 at home since the start of the 2023 season, including six straight home losses. Another would tie the 2nd-longest home losing streak in franchise history, done across the 1992-93 seasons. The longest home losing streak in Patriots history is 10 straight from 1989-91.
QB: Jacoby Brissett has 15+ completions and under 170 passing yards in a league-high three games this season. Josh Dobbs (four) and Bryce Young (five) were the only quarterbacks with more such games in the last season.
Offense: The Patriots are the only team in the NFL to start 4 different OL combinations this season, and it shows. They rank last in pressure rate allowed (46.7%) and 27th in average rush yards before contact (1.0).
Defense: The Patriots allowed four completions that gained 30+ yards on Sunday vs. the 49ers, their most in a game since 2017. They only allowed 16 of those completions last season, the seventh fewest.
Fantasy: Rhamondre Stevenson has already tied his career-high in total fumbles (4) and set his career-high in lost fumbles (2). Dating back to last season, Stevenson has fumbled in 5 straight games, the longest streak by a Patriots player since at least 2000.
Betting: Jacoby Brissett has covered six of his past nine divisional games, playing for three teams in the process (1-0 ATS with the Patriots).
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders
Cleveland Browns
Team: The Browns entered this season 8-4 in regular season games in which Deshaun Watson appeared. They are looking to avoid a fourth loss in five games under their near quarter-billion dollar man this season.
QB: Watson is averaging -0.26 EPA per dropback. That’s tied with 2009 Brady Quinn for the worst by a Browns QB through the first four games of a season since 2000.
Offense: For the second consecutive season, the Browns have the worst offensive EPA through four weeks (2023: -59.07, 2024: -56.86).
Defense: Myles Garrett is playing a career-low 40.5 snaps per game as he deals with various injuries. With Garrett on the field, the Browns have a 40.8% pressure rate and only blitz 25.5% of the time. With Garrett off the field, the Browns’ pressure rate drops to 32.4% even though they’re blitzing at a far higher rate (48.6%).
Fantasy: Jerome Ford has a pair of top-20 finishes at the position this season, the same number as Josh Jacobs and more than Najee Harris/Rachaad White, all of whom were drafted well ahead of him.
Betting: Overs are 8-3 during the Kevin Stefanski era in Cleveland when the Browns are an underdog by less than three points (they’ve failed to cover the past three such spots).
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders are seeking their fourth straight win, which would tie their longest in the last 10 seasons (done most recently in 2021).
QB: Jayden Daniels has completed 82.1% of his passes, the highest in NFL history through the first four games of a season (min. 40 pass attempts).
Jayden Daniels has opportunities to improve his leverage/coverage reads.
He gets the first down on 3rd and 13. Good work.
Still, faster processing of the coverage here would have been a big play: A potential TD vs 1st Down.
Daniels is playing well. Where it can continue to… pic.twitter.com/Pf3zTDBDWM
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 30, 2024
Offense: Excluding kneel-downs, the Commanders are averaging 4.03 points per drive. Since 2000, only the 2020 Packers, led by eventual MVP Aaron Rodgers, have averaged more through four games.
Defense: The Commanders are the worst third down defense in the league (54.8%, the Patriots are the only other defense over 50%).
Fantasy: Daniels is lighting the world on fire, but Brian Robinson has quietly been a top-13 producer at the RB position in three of our weeks this season.
Betting: Rookie QBs have covered seven of their past 10 home starts for this Washington franchise (the Commanders covered in Daniels’ home debut by beating the Giants by three points as a 1.5-point favorite).
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
Team: The Colts have lost nine straight games in Jacksonville despite being favored in six of those games. That’s tied for their longest road losing streak vs. any opponent in franchise history (they also lost nine straight at the Steelers from 1974 to 2002).
QB: Joe Flacco has multiple touchdown passes in six straight regular-season appearances, matching Jordan Love for the longest active streak in the NFL.
Offense: The Colts lead the league in rush rate when the game is within a single score this season.
Defense: The Colts have forced 3-and-outs on a league-low 18.6% of opponent drives this season (the league average is around 32.5% annually).
Fantasy: Michael Pittman is averaging 1.55 PPR points per Joe Flacco target this season and 1.21 from Anthony Richardson.
Betting: The Colts covered two of three road divisional games last season, their first under Shane Steichen. Over tickets cashed in all three of those games, as each contest went at least 11 points above the projected total.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: When this game kicks off, it will have been 314 days since the Jaguars last won a game in which the opposition scored.
QB: Trevor Lawrence had three games last season with 30+ attempts and a sub-60% completion rate – he leaves September this season with three such games.
Offense: The Jaguars are the only team in the NFL that has failed to clear 20 points in seven of their past eight games
Defense: The defense has kept Jacksonville competitive, but they’ve been able to make the key plays. They join the 2022 Lions as the only teams over the past seven seasons to lose three games by five or fewer points during Weeks 1-4.
Fantasy: Despite the struggles of Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk has been a top-20 receiver in consecutive weeks (could have easily finished as a top-10 option in Week 4 if not missed on a long touchdown).
Betting: Over tickets have come through in five of Jacksonville’s past six divisional games in which they were favored.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills saw five games last season be decided by at least 20 points — they’ve seen each of their past three games qualify as such (21-point win in Miami, 37-point win vs Jacksonville, and last week’s 25-point loss in Baltimore).
QB: In Sunday’s loss, Josh Allen averaged -0.37 EPA per dropback, his worst in any game over the last five seasons. He led the NFL with 0.55 EPA per dropback from Weeks 1-3.
Offense: From offensive pace to play-action rates, the Bill offense looks the same as last year despite the departures of two-high profile receivers, but their third down conversion rate has fallen from 49.8% to 35.7%.
Defense: The Bills are allowing just 5.5 yards per pass attempt this season, which is second best in the NFL and a 17.9% improvement from last season.
Fantasy: Through four weeks, Allen has two finishes as the top fantasy QB in the league and two outside of the top 20.
Betting: Including the playoffs, since the start of 2021, unders are 9-2 in Josh Allen starts when the spread is less than a field goal.
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans are averaging 10 accepted penalties per game, the most in the NFL. That includes the most accepted offensive penalties per game (6.5).
QB: C.J. Stroud has developed patience in his second season. As a rookie, when pressured, he threw quickly (34.2%) and had limited success (6.0 YPA). Through four games, he’s waiting longer (23.5% quick pass rate) and dominating (10.0 YPA).
Offense: The Texans are operating 6.1% slower this season than last, making their ability to extend drives more important (40% on third downs this season, up slightly from their 37.9% in 2023).
Defense: The Texans allowed 7.7 yards per pass last season (fourth worst), a rate that has improved so far this season (6.3). This will be a good test — they’ve faced Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, and Trevor Lawrence thu far.
Fantasy: Nico Collins was the target of Stroud’s first three passes last week and is currently on pace to set the all-time single-season record for receiving yards (2,078; Calvin Johnson holds the record with 1,964 in 2012).
Betting: Unders are 8-2 in regular season home Stroud starts.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: The Raiders have won 8 straight games against the Broncos, tied for the second-longest win streak by either team in the series (the Raiders won 14 straight from 1965-71).
QB: Gardner Minshew completed 55-of-71 passes in his first two games this season and led the league with a 77.5% completion percentage. He is 32-of-52 since (61.5%, career rate: 63.3%).
Offense: After making changes at RT (DJ Glaze) at LG (Jackson Powers-Johnson), the Raiders rushed for 152 yards on 5.2 yards per rush Sunday vs the Browns. From Weeks 1-3 combined, the Raiders had 153 rush yards on 2.8 yards per rush.
Defense: Maxx Crosby is great, and yet, the Raiders still create pressure only 25.5% of the time, the second lowest in the league.
Fantasy: Jakobi Meyers saw an on-field target share of 38.5% last weekend, with Davante Adams shelved. For his career, Meyers averages 15.6 PPR PPG when seeing at least 26.5% of the targets on the field.
Betting: Five straight games with the Raiders on the road and facing a divisional opponent have gone under the total (under by an average of 7.2 PPG).
Denver Broncos
Team: Sean Payton has had a losing divisional record for an entire season twice in his career (2008 and 2016; he went 3-3 last season in his first with the Broncos).
QB: Bo Nix averages twice as many yards per carry this season (4.8) as he did yards per pass on Sunday against the Jets (2.4, 60 yards on 25 attempts).
Offense: Denver is a bottom-5 offense in terms of yards per play (4.3) and offensive success rate (34.7%).
Defense: The Broncos own the second-best red zone defense in the league through four weeks (28.6% opponent TD rate). They ranked 22nd last season (57.6%).
Fantasy: Courtland Sutton accounted for 100% of Denver’s receiving yards last week and still didn’t manage to post his first top-24 finish at the position of the season.
Betting: Since the start of 2020, the Broncos are 7-5 ATS (overs: 7-5) when playing divisional games at home, and 4-8 ATS (unders: 8-4) when playing in division and on the road.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals
Team: Since Week 15 of last season, Arizona games have seen a league-high 53.3 total points scored per game.
QB: Kyler Murray ran for just three yards on Sunday against the Commanders after reaching at least 45 yards on the ground in the first three weeks – the Cardinals fall to 3-12-1 when Murray fails to clear 15 rushing yards in a start.
Offense: Over the past two weeks, the Cardinals have averaged just 1.35 points per drive, down from their 3.39-point start to the season.
Defense: The Cardinals have given up 403 rush yards in the last two games, their most allowed in a two-game span since 2018. They’ve also allowed 8 Rush touchdowns, their most through four games since 1975.
Fantasy: King of the quarter. Marvin Harrison Jr.’s splits are about as rare as you’ll see.
- Quarter 1: 50.7 points, 133.4% over expectation
- Rest of the game: 12.6 points, 54.6 below expectation
The previous high, since 2000, for a rookie in first quarters through four weeks was Marquise Brown (38.7). If you strictly gave him his first-quarter production over the course of 17 full games, he’d finish the season with 153 catches for 3,009 yards and 68 touchdowns.
Betting: Kyler Murray has covered his last two divisional games (Week 2 vs LAR and Week 18 last season vs SEA) after failing to cover seven straight games against NFC West opponents.
San Francisco 49ers
Team: The 49ers have won four straight vs. the Cardinals, all by 16+ points (average margin of victory: 22.0 PPG). However, the Niners have never won five straight by 16+ points vs. a single opponent in their NFL history (they did win five straight vs. the Chicago Rockets from 1947-49 when they were in the AAFC).
QB: Brock Purdy has started 10 career games against the division:
- 125.8 Passer Rating
- 19 TD passes
- 2 Interceptions
- 9.9 Yards Per Attempt
Offense: The 49ers have allowed a whopping 63.2% pressure rate on third down this season, the highest in the NFL. In the last 10 seasons, only the 2018 Cardinals (led by Josh Rosen) have allowed a higher 3rd-down pressure percentage through the first 4 games.
Defense: San Francisco has created pressure on 40% of its blitzes this season, a major downtick from its league-leading 56.1% a season ago.
Fantasy: Brandon Aiyuk’s best finish at the WR position this season is WR29 (Week 2), and he has a pair of finishes outside of the top 45.
Betting: The 49ers have covered consecutive home games against the Cardinals (cumulative score: 73-29). This comes on the heels of a stretch where they were 0-5-1 ATS against Arizona at home.
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams
Green Bay Packers
Team: For the first time since 2005, the Packers have seen three games decided by six or fewer points through Week 4 (they went just 4-12 that season).
QB: In the first three quarters last week against Minnesota, Jordan Love threw for 187 yards and one touchdown. Over the final 15 minutes, he chalked up 202 yards and three scores through the air.
Offense: The Packers are averaging 30.7 points and 385.9 yards of offense during Jordan Love’s last seven road starts (playoffs included).
Defense: Xavier McKinney has an interception in every game this season, putting him on pace to record more picks than the Packers had last season as a team … before Halloween.
Fantasy: Josh Jacobs has one finish this season better than RB27, and it required 32 rush attempts in a Malik Willis-led offense (Week 2 vs. Colts).
Betting: The Packers are 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) since the start of 2015 when facing an NFC West opponent during the regular season (average cover margin: 3.1 PPG).
Los Angeles Rams
Team: Despite their injuries, the Rams still rank second in the league in percentage of possessions that have reached the red zone (43.6%, last season: 29.7%).
QB: Matthew Stafford has failed to reach 225 passing yards in three straight games and has a total of one touchdown pass across those contests (81 attempts). That matches the longest such streak of his career (minimum 25 pass attempts, he also did it in Weeks 8-10 of 2009 as a member of the Lions).
Offense: Kyren Williams has a Rush TD in 7 straight games, the longest streak by a Rams player since Greg Bell had 10 straight from 1988-89.
Defense: The Rams are blitzing less (20.7% down from 24.6%) and creating pressure more often (38.8%, down from 35.3%) than last season.
Fantasy: Williams had a touch gaining more than 15 yards in seven of 12 regular season games last season – he’s 0-for-4 this year.
Betting: The Rams have covered four straight home games and over tickets have cashed in three of those instances.
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
New York Giants
Team: For the fourth time in five seasons, the Giants don’t have more than a single win through four weeks. In Weeks 1-4 over that stretch, they are 6-14 and have been outscored by 156 points (-7.8 points per game).
QB: Against Dallas on Thursday, 91.4% of New York’s yards came through the air, the second most in the career of Daniel Jones (91.8% at Jets, Week 10, 2019).
Offense: The Giants’ offensive success rate is 35.5% this season — their 36% rate last year was the franchise’s worst of the 2000s.
Defense: Opponents are just 17-of-48 (35.4%) on third down against the Giant this season, pacing this defense for their best showing since 2016 (35.3%).
Fantasy: Wan’Dale Robinson averaged five catches per game through the first three weeks – he racked up five catches on Daniel Jones’ first eight passes on Thursday night against the Cowboys.
Betting: Unders are 7-2 (77.8%) in Daniel Jones’ last nine games played on extended rest (his Giants opened Week 4 hosting the Cowboys).
Seattle Seahawks
Team: Starting this week, Seattle plays four of five games at home before a daunting stretch following their bye that sees them play in four different cities in four weeks (Weeks 11-14).
QB: Geno Smith set career highs across the board on Monday night against the Lions (38/56 for 395 yards). That said, he has just four touchdown passes on his 159 attempts this season.
Offense: Smith has three straight games with at least 285 passing yards but without multiple touchdown passes. That matches the longest streak in the NFL since Kerry Collins (New York Giants) had five straight such games bridging the 2001 and 2002 seasons.
Defense: The Seahawks’ defense led the league in a number of metrics through three weeks, numbers that were accumulated against the Broncos, Patriots, and the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins. The Lions punched them in the mouth on Monday, scoring a touchdown on three of their first four possessions (all rushing touchdowns while Jared Goff completed all 11 of his passes).
Fantasy: Geno Smith has completed over 70% of his passes or thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of his past nine starts as a favorite.
Betting: The Seahawks are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven home games played on short rest (they concluded Week 4 on Monday night in Detroit).
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (SNF)
Dallas Cowboys
Team: The Cowboys have held the ball for just 27:03 per game this season, a rate that would have ranked ahead of only one team in 2023 (Seahawks).
QB: Dak Prescott averaged just 5.5 air yards per throw on Thursday night, the eighth lowest of his career for a game where he threw over 25 passes. In Weeks 1-3, his average throw traveled 9.0 yards in the air.
Offense: After a league-high 41.8% of their drives reached the red zone last season, only 20.5% this season have reached the opponents’ 20-yard line.
Defense: Dallas is creating pressure with just 38.9% of its blitzes this season — this rate has been over 44% in each of the five seasons prior (2023: 49.2%).
Fantasy: Across the last two weeks, Jake Ferguson has seen 27.7% of the targets when he’s been on the field (71.1% snap share), showcasing versatility in the process with an 8.3 aDOT in Week 3 and a 2.9 rate in Week 4.
Betting: The Cowboys are 1-3 ATS this season. In Weeks 1-4 over the previous three seasons combined, they covered 10 of 12 games (83.3% cover rate).
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: Over their last 10 games coming off of a loss, the Steelers are 8-2 (seven of those 10 games have been decided by a single possession).
QB: Justin Fields has improved his in-pocket completion percentage in every season of his career:
- 2021: 61.2%
- 2022: 63.1%
- 2023: 65.7%
- 2024: 71.9%
Offense: The Steelers use 2+ TEs on a league-high 46.3% of their plays. The Cowboys allow the most yards per play on defense (6.8) when facing 2+ TE sets.
Defense: The Steelers allowed 17 points on the Colts’ first three drives in Week 4. In their other 39 drives, they’ve allowed just 36 points.
Fantasy: Pat Freiermuth is on pace for 663 yards and caught his first touchdown of the season in Week 4 – he’s been a top-10 producer at the position every week this season.
Betting: From 2017-21, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers were 9-15 ATS (37.5%) in primetime, playoffs included. They are 7-2 ATS (77.8%) in such spots since.
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (MNF)
New Orleans Saints
Team: The Saints have a +57 point differential but are 2-2. That’s the best point differential through 4 games in NFL history by a team that didn’t have a winning record. The prior high was +54 by the 1981 Bills.
QB: Derek Carr has thrown an interception in his past five primetime games (five TD passes and eight interceptions during those games).
Offense: The Saints ran play-action on 19.5% of their snaps in the first two weeks, a rate that has dropped back to 10.4% since.
Defense: The Saints are the best red zone defense in the NFL, allowing a TD on 22.2% of trips.
Fantasy: Chris Olave’s aDOT is down 29.4% from his rate over the first two seasons of his career, which has resulted in a spike in efficiency (32.2% above fantasy expectations through four weeks).
Betting: Derek Carr’s last three starts on extended rest (all with the Raiders) have seen his team cover and the over cashed. In his four such games prior, he failed to cover, and the under tickets won.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: The Chiefs are the 6th team in the Super Bowl era to start 4-0, with all four wins coming by one score. The last to do this was the 2004 Jets. For what it’s worth, none of the prior five teams won the Super Bowl, and only the 1988 Bengals made it to the end.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has the 2nd-shortest aDOT this season (5.6), ahead of only Baker Mayfield. However, he excels when he tries to go deep. Mahomes is completing 66.7% of his passes of 15+ air yards (12-18), the best in the NFL through Week 4.
Offense: The Chiefs are 4-0 through four weeks with a -4 turnover differential. They are the first team in the 2000s to have four wins through four weeks with more committed than forced turnovers.
Defense: The Chiefs’ defense has started slowly. In the first quarter, they rank 26th in scoring (6.8 PPG) and 27th in yards per play (6.5). Over the final three quarters, the Chiefs rank fourth in PPG (11.3) and 12th in yards per play (5.0).
Fantasy: Patrick Mahomes has yet to finish a week this season inside the top-15 scores at the position. Andy Dalton has done it in both of his starts, Malik Willis has such a finish this season, and Sam Darnold has yet to finish a week worse than QB13 – just like we all assumed would be the case!
Betting: Patrick Mahomes is 6-3 ATS in his past nine games on extended rest, a strong run for a QB who was just 8-11 ATS in such spots prior. For his career, unders are 17-11-1 (60.7%) when Mahomes has at least one extra day to prepare for a game.
NFL Notes
We are four weeks into the NFL season, and while there are a few outlier teams, the league has seen a scoring decline, resulting in greater variance in results week over week.
Scheduling Note
With bye weeks now underway (Lions, Chargers, Eagles, and Titans this week), it never hurts to get ahead in your analysis. We saw significant stumbles for the teams in the first wave of byes last season …
- Browns: 45-14 playoff loss at Houston
- Chargers: Five straight losses to end the season
- Seahawks: Four straight losses in Weeks 11-14
- Buccaneers: Four straight losses post-bye
Mr. October
As we flip the calendar to October, let’s take a look at the top teams over the past five seasons for the month:
- Ravens: 16-4 (80% win rate)
- Vikings: 15-5 (75%)
- Bills: 14-6 (70%)
- Titans: 14-6 (70%)
- Saints: 14-7 (66.7%)
- Seahawks: 14-7 (66.7%)
Week 5 Usage Notes
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