Whether you’re setting your fantasy football lineups or you need just a bit more information before getting in on the NFL betting action at your favorite sportsbook, we’ve got you covered here at Pro Football Network with the most important stats, notes, and insights for every NFL matchup in Week 10.
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Bye Week Schedule
- Week 10: Browns, Packers, Raiders, Seahawks
- Week 11: Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, Buccaneers
- Week 12: Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, Jets
- Week 14: Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (TNF)
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: Since Week 3, the Bengals are the third best third down offense and eighth best offense in terms of win rate.
QB: Joe Burrow threw three third down touchdown passes on Sunday against the Jets, matching a career best (also: Week 3, 2022 at Jets).
Offense: Burrow is pacing for 4,239 passing yards and a career-high 38 passing touchdowns.
Defense: Per EPA, the Bengals own the second worst run defense in the NFL (worst: Cowboys).
Fantasy: Tee Higgins is battling an injury, but this matchup should make him feel better. He led the Bengals in targets (14) in the first meeting this season and he’s punched in multiple scores in consecutive games against Baltimore.
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in five of Cincinnati’s past seven divisional games.
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The Ravens are averaging 445.9 yards of offense per game, the most through nine weeks since both the Rams (447.1) and Buccaneers (446.8) were better in 2018.
QB: Lamar Jackson is averaging 0.35 EPA per dropback. That’s the highest through a team’s first nine games since 2018 (when both Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees had higher figures).
Offense: Averaging 7.4 yards per play on first down this season, pacing them for the best such season since the 2016 Atlanta Falcons (7.6).
Defense: A league-high 78.8% of yards gained against the Ravens come through the air (3.5 percentage points ahead of any other defense).
Fantasy: Remember when Jackson was being labeled as a running back? He owns the highest passer rating in the league on balls thrown 15-plus yards this season (123.9, zero interceptions).
Betting: Since Week 15, 2022, the Ravens are 4-0 ATS against the Bengals and 1-6 ATS against the rest of the AFC North.
New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers (Germany)
New York Giants
Team: New York is averaging just 2.78 plays of 20-plus yards this season (28th, ranking just behind Carolina’s 2.89 per game).
QB: In a limited offense, the “layups” have to overachieve, and that didn’t happen on Sunday against the Commanders. Yes, Daniel Jones completed 13-of-16 short passes, but those plays gained a total of just 46 yards – in essence, they were no better than handoffs that come with more risk because you’re putting the ball in the air.
Offense: The Giants are averaging a league-worst 5.1 yards per play on first down this season (since 2013, only the 2015 San Diego Chargers and the 2020 Philadelphia Eagles have posted lower marks for a season).
Defense: The Giants own the highest sack rate in the league (12.3%).
Fantasy: Five times this season has a rookie receiver played 70% of the snaps and been targeted on at least one-third of his route:
- Malik Nabers (Week 2 at Commanders)
- Malik Nabers (Week 3 at Browns)
- Malik Nabers (Week 4 vs. Cowboys)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (Week 4 at Texans)
- Malik Nabers (Week 9 vs. Commanders)
Betting: Pick a side and commit – seven of New York’s past 10 road games have seen the spread (in one direction or another) be covered by at least a dozen points.
Carolina Panthers
Team: Carolina is being out-scored by 16.2 points per game, the third worst mark through nine weeks over the past decade (2020 Jets: -16.3, 2019 Dolphins: -19.1).
QB: When throwing the ball 10-plus yards down the field this season, Bryce Young has completed just 20-of-51 passes (39.2%) with one touchdown against six interceptions.
Offense: We thought last season was rock bottom? Through nine weeks, Carolina is averaging 5.5 fewer yards of offense per game this season than last.
Defense: The Panthers have allowed the second-highest opponent passer rating through nine weeks (111.2).
Fantasy: Not only does Jonathon Brooks loom, but defenses are wising up to the Chuba Hubbard strength of this offense – in Weeks 8-9, 50% of his carries came against a loaded box (Weeks 5-7: 18.8%).
Betting: Underdogs have failed to cover four of the past five Sunday morning games.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots are averaging 264.8 yards of offense per game, the lowest mark in the NFL this season and the sixth-worst through nine weeks over the past decade (every team in the AFC East has a season represented in that bottom-6).
QB: Players in the 2000s with multiple efforts of 30 passes, 200 pass yards, and 35 rushing yards within their first five career games – Maye (2024), Gardner Minshew (2019), and Robert Griffin III (2012).
Offense: The Patriots allow pressure without being blitzed on 37.8% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league.
Defense: The Patriots average just 1.78 sacks per game, ranking them 29th in the NFL (the Bears rank ninth: 2.88 per game).
Fantasy: Rhamondre Stevenson has scored four times over the past two weeks despite none of his 30 carries gaining more than seven yards over that stretch.
Betting: Since 2009, the Patriots are just 3-8-1 ATS (27.3%) when traveling to face a rookie quarterback.
Chicago Bears
Team: Chicago is 3-0 at home (wins over the Titans, Rams, and Panthers), 1-0 in neutral spots (Jaguars in London), and 0-4 on the road (Texans, Colts, Commanders, and Cardinals).
QB: Two steps forward, two steps back. After Caleb Williams completed six-of-seven deep passes in Weeks 5-6, he is just two-of-16 when stretching the field in his two games since (15-plus air yards).
Offense: The Bears have reached the red zone on just 22.5% of their drives this season, ranking them 28th in the league.
Defense: The Bears have the third-best red zone defense in the NFL (40.9% touchdown rate, tops in the NFC).
Fantasy: D’Andre Swift has at least four catches or a 35-plus yard gain in five straight games.
Betting: The Bears have covered seven straight home games (overs have cashed in five of their past six at home).
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts
Buffalo Bills
Team: Buffalo is seeking a fifth straight win – they haven’t had a five-game win streak in the first 10 weeks of a season during the 2000s.
QB: In eight games this season, Josh Allen has been held without a deep touchdown pass seven times (on Sunday against the Dolphins, he attempted just three deep passes (five games prior: 8.6 deep pass attempts per game).
Offense: The Bills are turning the ball over just 0.44 times per game, the second-fewest in the NFL and down from 1.65 times per game a season ago.
Defense: Dink-and-dunk: opponents average a league-low 6.2 air yards per throw against Buffalo this season.
Fantasy: James Cook opened the season with a pair of games over 70 rushing yards – he’s reached 45 rushing yards in just two of six games since. He saved your day with a season-high five receptions against the Dolphins on Sunday, but that’s a dangerous way to live.
Betting: Under tickets have come through in five of Buffalo’s past six road games, but don’t mistake that for sportsbooks struggling to handicap this team – all of those games finished within three points of the closing total.
Indianapolis Colts
Team: Indianapolis’s offense has only been on the field for 25:41 per game this season, which is 100 seconds less per game than any other offense in the league.
QB: Over the past four weeks, Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson have made two starts apiece.
- Flacco: 5.7 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
- Richardson: 5.4 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
Offense: The Colts rank 30th in offensive success rate (ahead of only the Chargers and Browns).
Defense: After a brutal start to the season, the Colts own the second-best rush defense by EPA (first: Chargers).
Fantasy: Josh Downs has a 36.5% on-field target share from Joe Flacco this season (Michael Pittman: 19%, Alec Pierce: 10.3%).
Betting: The Colts are 4-0 ATS at home this season (they haven’t had a winning ATS season in front of their home fans since 2017).
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
Team: No team has more time to pass, on average, than the Broncos this season (3.26 seconds, 14% longer than the league average).
QB: Bo Nix and Lamar Jackson are the only QBs in the league this season, with four games featuring 30 passes and 35 rushing yards.
Offense: The Broncos are one of five teams yet to connect on a 50-yard play this season (the others are the Browns, Titans, Giants, and Panthers).
Defense: The Broncos force a three-and-out on 37.9% of drives, the seventh-highest mark in the NFL this season.
Fantasy: The development of a rookie quarterback can serve as a rising tide – Courtland Sutton has posted two of his top-10 yards per route marks of his career over the past two weeks.
Betting: The Broncos are just 3-7 ATS (30%) in their past 10 road games within the division. On the bright side, their last game in Kansas City was one of those three covers (27-24 loss as a 12.5-point underdog).
A trick & a treat. 🎃
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/Dj3JZ6Bclu
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 3, 2024
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Since Andy Reid became their head coach in 2013, the Chiefs are 12-3 against rookie starting QBs. However, they lost their last game vs. Aidan O’Connell and the Las Vegas Raiders in 2023.
QB: Patrick Mahomes averaged a career-low 7.0 yards per pass last season – he’s failed to reach that number in three straight games.
Offense: Since 2020, the Chiefs are 14-8 (63.6%) when trailing entering the fourth quarter – the Steelers rank second in win percentage in such spots over that stretch at 34.1%.
Defense: In Week 7, Jordan Mason had a 26-yard rush against the Chiefs. They haven’t allowed a player to rush for more than 24 yards in a game since.
Fantasy: Patrick Mahomes hinted pregame that DeAndre Hopkins was going to be used more with time, and it didn’t take long – the former Titan accounted for one-third of his completions in the first half, tallying 66 yards and a touchdown in the process.
Betting: The Chiefs have covered three straight divisional games when playing on short rest (three of their past four such games have finished under the total).
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
Team: The Falcons are averaging 13.8 plays per game of 10-plus yards, sixth most in the league and up 11% from a season ago.
QB: Football can be such a complicated game, but it can also be remarkably simple. Over his past two games, when Kirk Cousins has stayed in the pocket, he’s been as good as anyone in the league: 42-53 for 498 yards, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions (145.4 passer rating).
Offense: Despite having a strong running game, no team runs play-action nearly as rarely as the Falcons (8.3% of offensive plays, the Cowboys rank 31st at 10.6%).
Defense: The Falcons own the lowest sack rate in the league (2.7% of opponent dropbacks, league average: 7.1%).
Fantasy: Darnell Mooney, entering this season, averaged 735 receiving yards per 17 games and had a career-high of four touchdown receptions in a season – through nine weeks, he has 588 receiving yards and has caught five touchdown passes.
Betting: The Falcons are 7-3 ATS (70%) in their past 10 divisional road games (2-0 ATS this season with over tickets cashing in both of those instances).
New Orleans Saints
Team: The Saints have lost seven straight games, their longest skid of the 2000s. Three of those losses have come by a field goal or less.
QB: Derek Carr threw five touchdown passes on 39 attempts through Week 2 – he’s thrown four touchdown passes on 120 attempts since.
Offense: Since Week 3, the Saints are the sixth worst offense in the league in terms of yards per play
Defense: The Saints have the sixth lowest opponent passer rating against (80.2, league average: 91.5).
Fantasy: Three times this season has a running back carried the rock 10 times while seeing at least eight targets in consecutive games:
- Alvin Kamara (Weeks 4-6)
- De’Von Achane (Weeks 8-9)
- Alvin Kamara (Weeks 8-9)
Betting: The Saints have seen their past five home games played within the division finish more than 16 points off of the spread (each of the past three by more than 20 points).
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers
Team: The 49ers won six straight games out of their bye last season, outscoring the opposition 207-94 in the process.
QB: In Weeks 1-7 last season, Brock Purdy’s quick pass rate was 74.1%. Since, that rate has been trimmed to 55.4%.
Offense: Settling. The 49ers have kicked a field goal on 26.5% of their drives this season, up from 11.7% a year ago.
Defense: In Weeks 2-6, San Francisco forced their opposition to go three-and-out on 28.8% of their drives, a rate that spiked in the two weeks before their bye (43.5%).
Fantasy: Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, and Purdy were the only QBs to finish Weeks 6-7-8 as a top-10 fantasy signal-caller.
Betting: The 49ers have covered six of their past eight games as a road favorite (those two losses came in Weeks 2-3 this season, outright losses to the Vikings and Rams).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: Will their fate depend on how they can produce on the road? Following the Week 11 bye, Tampa Bay plays four of five on the road (all of which are winnable: Giants, Panthers, Chargers, and Cowboys).
QB: Baker Mayfield has the longest active streak of multi-pass games at six straight (Josh Allen is second with four straight).
Offense: Tampa Bay has allowed pressure on just 12.8% of dropbacks over the past two weeks, easily the lowest rate in the league.
Defense: The Bucs have allowed opponents to convert 60% of third downs over the past two weeks (first seven weeks: 37.2%).
Fantasy: Cade Otton is one of four pass catchers to have 15 PPR points in each of the past three weeks, joining Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, and Cedric Tillman.
Betting: Overs are 7-2 in the last nine instances in which a team on short rest faces one on an extended break.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: After this game, Pittsburgh has four straight games against divisional opponents, including both Cleveland games.
QB: Russell Wilson has thrown for 542 yards and three touchdowns in his two starts this season – no player had that stat line through two weeks this season.
Russell Wilson drops it in a 🪣 for Calvin Austin III's second TD of the night!
📺: #NYGvsPIT on ESPN/ABC/ESPN2
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/KWAglgI9WV— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2024
Offense: The Steelers averaged 2.55 points per drive in Weeks 7-8 under Russell Wilson, the seventh-best rate in the NFL over that stretch and a 29.4% improvement over Pittsburgh’s rate through the first six weeks.
Defense: Pittsburgh went into their bye with the utmost confidence in their defense – after creating pressure on just 18.5% of opponent dropbacks in Weeks 6-7, they sped up the Giants 53.5% of the time in Week 8.
SACK, FORCED FUMBLE, AND FUMBLE RECOVERY 💪 @_TJWatt
📲 Stream on NFL+: https://t.co/COxKRnr6Mc pic.twitter.com/wKfKVUB1wM
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 29, 2024
Fantasy: Joe Mixon, Bijan Robinson, and Najee Harris were the only running backs to post top-17 numbers at the position in Weeks 6-7-8.
Betting: Under tickets have come through in eight of Pittsburgh’s past 10 road games, and they’ve covered 12 of their past 16 away from home.
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders are seeking to start 5-0 at home for the first time since 1991. That was the season of their last Super Bowl title.
QB: Behind Jayden Daniels, this offense is turning the ball over a league-low 0.33 times per game. That’s the lowest average through nine weeks this millennium (second place: 2020 Packers, 0.38).
Offense: The Commanders reach the red zone on 48.8% of their drives, the only offense in the league with a rate of even 43%.
Defense: The Commanders own the sixth-highest sack rate in the NFL (9.1%).
Fantasy: There are two receivers to score 15-plus PPR points in four straight games this season, both of which are active streaks. The names? Justin Jefferson and Terry McLaurin.
Betting: The Commanders are 4-0 ATS at home this season, covering the spread by an average of 11 points per game.
Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars
Minnesota Vikings
Team: The Vikings have been sacked on 10.4% of their dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league (Browns: 11.3%).
QB: After returning from an ugly London performance (14-of-31 against the Jets), Sam Darnold has completed 68-of-86 passes (79.1%).
Offense: The Vikings have been trailing for a league-low 16% of their offensive snaps (the Chargers are the only other team under 25.8% this season).
Defense: Take your shots deep – no team has seen opponents throw 15-plus yards downfield more times per game this season (9.1 per game).
Fantasy: T.J. Hockenson played only 45.1% of the snaps on Sunday, his season debut (2023: 79.6%), but he did post an 11.5-yard aDOT (2023: 7.6).
Betting: The Vikings are 7-2-2 ATS (77.8%) in their 11 road games.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: Jacksonville is 2-7 with five losses coming by five or fewer points.
QB: Trevor Lawrence’s passer rating, completion percentage, and touchdown-to-interception ratio when not pressured are all tracking down for a second straight season.
Offense: The Jaguars average 0.67 plays of 50-plus yards per game this season, trailing only the Ravens’ 0.78 mark.
Defense: Jacksonville is allowing a first down on 39.1% of passes, the second-highest rate in the league (worse: Panthers).
Fantasy: Parker Washington earned a 20% target share and racked up 103 air yards. Jacksonville is an underdog or favored by fewer than two points in seven of their final eight games, a game script that makes this waiver wire add an interesting option coming down the stretch.
Betting: Unders are 10-3 in the Jaguars last 13 games when being installed as a home underdog.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers
Tennessee Titans
Team: The Titans are allowing a league-low 1.75 deep completions per game this season (the Chargers rank 24th in deep passes completed per game, 2.50).
QB: Over the past two weeks, Mason Rudolph is averaging 12 yards per completion. In Week 9, per our QB+ metric, he graded out better than Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen.
Offense: Tennessee is turning the ball over a league-high 2.13 times per game this season.
Defense: The Titans own the sixth best defense in the league in terms of success rate (62.1%).
Fantasy: The Titans are a tough watch, but Tony Pollard’s role is nothing short of elite – he has multiple catches in every game and at least 16 carries in seven of eight.
Betting: The Titans went 0-2 ATS on the road in October and are 2-9 ATS on the road over their past 11 – both of those covers came against the Dolphins. They are not playing the Dolphins this week.
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: The Chargers continue to flirt with it, but they’ve yet to see 40 points scored in a game this season (32-39 points scored in all four games since the Week 5 bye).
QB: Justin Herbert has 910 passing yards over his past three games (first five games: 815 passing yards).
Offense: This season, the Chargers are 5-0 when they clear 15 points.
Defense: By total defensive EPA, the Chargers are the best defense in the league (18% better than the second-place Minnesota Vikings).
Fantasy: J.K. Dobbins is averaging 13.8 yards per carry on touchdowns this season and 4.5 on carries that don’t end up in the end zone.
Betting: Unders are 9-2 in the Chargers’ past 11 home games (3-0 this season, with each of those games going under the total by at least 7.5 points).
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: The Eagles are averaging 4.63 plays of 20-plus yards per game this season, the fourth most in the league, just ahead of the Commanders (4.56). The Cowboys rank 22nd at 3.13 per game.
QB: The ball hit the ground on three of four Jalen Hurts third-down passes in the Week 7 win against the Giants – he’s completed 12-of-14 third-down passes since.
Offense: The Eagles run the ball 73.6% of the time in the red zone, which is easily the highest rate in the league and a drastic bump from their already high 63.8% rate that they posted a season ago. Philadelphia is pacing to increase their red zone rush rate for a fourth straight season.
Defense: Through nine weeks, Philadelphia is allowing the third-fewest yards per game (290.1).
Fantasy: Saquon Barkley has reached 110 yards from scrimmage in seven of eight games and twice this season (including Week 9) has he had a 20-plus yard rush AND reception.
Betting: Philadelphia’s last three divisional road games haven’t landed anywhere near the close spread – all have finished more than 16 points off of the script presented by sportsbooks.
Dallas Cowboys
Team: The Cowboys are averaging just 0.13 runs of 20-plus yards this season, easily the lowest mark in the league (only three other teams even sit below 0.38 per game).
QB: Over his past five games against the Eagles, Dak Prescott has thrown 16 touchdown passes and is averaging 305 yards through the air per game.
Offense: Dallas has the second-worst turnover differential in the NFL (-1.38; only the Raiders have been worse).
Defense: By total defensive EPA, only the Jaguars and Panthers grade out worse this season than the Cowboys. On a per-game basis, Dallas is pacing toward its worst defensive season (by EPA) since 2013.
Fantasy: Jake Ferguson and Brock Bowers lead the position in games with six-plus receptions this season (five).
Betting: The Cowboys are 16-3 ATS (84.2%) in their past 19 home divisional games (four straight covers).
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals
New York Jets
Team: New York is allowing the second-fewest yards per pass after the completion this season (4.4, league average: 5.3).
QB: The Jets own the highest red zone pass rate in the league this season (59.3%, league average: 34.2%).
Offense: New York is making minor strides in converting third downs. In Weeks 4-5, they picked up just 26.5% of their third downs, a rate that rose to 31.8% in Weeks 6-7 and to 40.9% over the past two weeks.
Defense: A league-high 45.6% of yards gained against the Jets come on the ground (league average: 35.6%).
Fantasy: Garrett Wilson’s aDOT is 35.2% higher when Davante Adams is on the field than when he’s not – something that adds both upside (like what we saw on Thursday night against the Texans) and downside into his fantasy profile.
Betting: The Jets have failed to cover three straight road games (cumulative cover margin in those games: -38) and eight of their past 10.
Arizona Cardinals
Team: Arizona is 5-4 this season after winning just five of their previous 27 games.
QB: Three times over the past month, Kyler Murray failed to rush for 20 yards (prior to this stretch, 49.4 rush yards per game).
Offense: Arizona averages 4.78 runs per game of 10-plus yards, a figure that sits behind only Lamar Jackson’s Ravens through nine weeks.
Defense: The Cardinals have the second-worst third-down defense in the NFL (48.2%, only one-tenth of a point ahead of the Panthers).
Fantasy: James Conner continues to be a good story, but be careful – his fantasy points per touch is pacing to decline for a third straight season (every year of his Arizona career) and this is still ap layer who has missed multiple games in every season entering 2024.
Betting: The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS (28.6%) in their last seven games when their opponent enters on extended rest (the Jets beat the Texans last Thursday night).
Detroit Lions at Houston Texans (SNF)
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions’ +110 point differential is fourth-best through eight games in franchise history (their best since posting a +144 margin in 1954).
QB: Jared Goff ranks first or second in the league in completion percentage, yards per pass, and passer rating – he faces a defense this week that has allowed a touchdown on a league-high 6.9% of passes.
Offense: The Lions turn the ball over just 0.63 times per game, which is fueling their league-best turnover margin (+1.38 per game).
Defense: The Lions are one of four defenses to rank in the top 10 in both blitz and pressure rate (Broncos, Browns, and Chiefs).
Fantasy: Jahmyr Gibbs is producing despite not flashing the versatility we thought he’d need next to David Montgomery – the second-year back has failed to catch multiple passes in four of his past six games.
Betting: The Lions have covered eight of their past nine indoor games, including three road games.
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans have converted just five of 14 red zone trips (35.7%) into touchdowns over their past three games, down from their 75% rate through Week 6 (12-of-16).
QB: C.J. Stroud will likely get Nico Collins back this week, a return that can’t come soon enough.
Hear me out
Top Row: Stroud's season numbers
Row 2: With Collins on the field
Row 3: Without Collins on the fieldWhat if HOU finishes 13-4 (7-1 ROS)?
"Moment" games remain with DET, KC, BALHis value has been proven over the last month. What if he shows out? pic.twitter.com/sIoEqh3HuM
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) November 1, 2024
Offense: C.J. Stroud’s 17-game pace this season in games started by Nico Collins is 4,709 yards, a far cry from the version of him that we’ve seen over the past month (under 200 passing yards in three of four games and just one touchdown toss over his past three).
Defense: The Texans have the third-worst red zone defense in the NFL, allowing a touchdown on 69.6% of opponent trips (league average: 56.7%).
Fantasy: Joe Mixon appears to be aging in reverse.
- Week 6 at New England Patriots: 15 touches, 75.4% production over expectation
- Week 7 at Green Bay Packers: 27 touches, 21.3% production over expectation
- Week 8 vs. Indianapolis Colts: 29 touches, 9.1% production over expectation
- Week 9 at New York Jets: 24 touches, 10.4% production over expectation
He’s found paydirt in all four of those games. He’s a 20-plus yard rush in all four of those games. He’s cleared 100 rushing yards in all four of those games.
Betting: Five straight Texan home games (and eight of the past nine) have gone under the total.
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (MNF)
Miami Dolphins
Team: Miami’s offensive 51.9% offensive success rate over the past two weeks (Weeks 1-7: 36.7%).
QB: Since returning, Tua Tagovailoa has completed 46-of-57 passes when not pressured (80.7%).
Offense: Miami is being blitzed on only 13.9% of dropbacks. The Bengals at 17% are the only other offense under 18.6% this season.
Defense: The Dolphins are forcing just 0.75 turnovers per game, tied with the Cowboys for the fourth-fewest through nine weeks.
Fantasy: If you extend De’Von Achane’s numbers from four Tagovailoa games for a 17-game season: 2,266 yards and 21 touchdowns.
Betting: Under tickets have cashed in five of Miami’s past six road games played in primetime.
Los Angeles Rams
Team: In 2023, the Rams lost three straight games before their bye and won seven of eight following the week off. This season, they were 1-4 before their bye and have won all three games since.
QB: Puka Nacua got ejected late in the first half, which impacted his QB in a major way. In Week 9, Matthew Stafford completed just two-of-10 third down passes – in Weeks 1-8, he owned a 59.2% completion rate on third downs.
Offense: Over the past two weeks, 76.7% of Los Angeles’ yards have come through the air (Weeks 3-7: 62.6%).
Defense: The Rams rank fourth in the NFL in pressure rate this season (38.8%) despite blitzing just 25.4% of the time (league average: 25.8%).
Fantasy: Our game is driven by touchdowns, and Kyren Williams, while great at converting, isn’t immune to that. He has consecutive games without a rushing score (rushing TD in nine straight prior) and doesn’t have a rush, gaining more than 17 yards in seven of eight.
Betting: Unders are 10-3 (76.9%) in the Rams last 13 primetime games.