We have officially reached the halfway point of the 2020 season, and the elite teams are separating themselves from the bottom feeders. This week, I will focus on two games that highlight significant discrepancies on both sides of the ball and their influence on NFL point spread odds that present possible value before making my NFL point spreads and picks for Week 9. Make sure you keep up with all of the betting team’s Week 9 plays throughout the week.
NFL Odds & Point Spreads, Week 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5) at Dallas Cowboys, Over/Under 41.5
Defenses: If you’re not first, you’re last
Mismatches do not get much greater than this. You have arguably the NFL’s best defense through eight weeks going up against hands down the worst defense in the league. The Pittsburgh Steelers are holding opposing offenses to 20.3 points per game – and that is with their starting playmakers intact. The Dallas Cowboys, on the other hand, are allowing a league-worst 33.3 points per game to opponents.
Now throw in the fact that Cowboys backup (and now starting) quarterback Andy Dalton is out this week after being placed on the reserved list. This means that either veteran journeyman Garrett Gilbert or practice squad signee Cooper Rush will get the start versus the mighty Steel Curtain. These quarterbacks have less than 10 combined pass attempts between them at the NFL level, which does not bode well for them against the ferocious Steelers defense.
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The Cowboys defense has proven week in and week out that they are the league’s worst defense. They have allowed the fifth-most total yards this season and only have seven total turnovers – tied for eighth-worst. They do have a middle-tier pass defense regarding yardage but are allowing the third-most passing touchdowns this year with 18 so far. They notably struggle against the run, allowing a league-worst 170.8 rush yards per game and giving up the third-most rushing touchdowns in the league with 11.
Not that it needs mentioning, but the Steelers defense leads the league in many defensive statistics. They have the most quarterback pressures (hurries, knockdowns, and sacks) in the league with 96, which accounts to 35% of the time an opposing quarterback drops back to throw. They do not typically miss tackles either, with only 44 on the year – eighth-fewest this season. They also blitz 42% of the time, which is the third-highest rate in the NFL. Good luck to any quarterback that has to face this defense, especially a quarterback with minimal NFL experience to begin with.
With these inexperienced Cowboys quarterbacks, it is expected that they will rely on running back Ezekiel Elliott and the run game. If that is the case, it should be noted that the Steelers boast the fourth-best run defense in the league. They are only allowing 96.8 yards per game with a measly four yards per carry. The Cowboys will have a challenging time moving the ball in any fashion against this stout Steelers defense, which should allow the Steelers to cover this Week 9 NFL spread.
Offensive comparisons
In the five games before quarterback Dak Prescott’s injury, the Cowboys fielded one of the best offenses in the league – averaging 32.6 points per game. In the three games since his departure, however, the Cowboys have averaged 7.3 points per game.
This dramatic drop off is a clear indication that this offense relies on Prescott’s elite ability to orchestrate long, efficient drives. With Dalton and Ben DiNucci at the helm, they have not been able to move the ball at all – and that was against the mid-tier defenses of the Arizona Cardinals, Washington Football Team, and Philadelphia Eagles.
Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is back to his old self – minus his consistent deep ball. He is still efficient, limits turnovers, and is near impossible to sack. All of these traits have allowed the Steelers offense to complement the stingy defense exceptionally well. When the Steelers pin the opposing team in their own end zone or cause a timely turnover, the offense capitalizes on the opponent’s mistakes and puts points on the board. They have the fifth-best scoring offense in the league at 30.1 points per game and attack their opponents both through the air and on the ground.
The dreaded “Trap Game”
There are some definite worrisome circumstances with this game in regard to the Steelers. They are coming off of a highly emotional divisional game against the Baltimore Ravens and have critical injuries on both sides of the ball.
The Steelers are also facing another division rival next week in the Cincinnati Bengals. Where this would generally be a dangerous situation, the Bengals are not as big of a divisional threat as the Ravens or Cleveland Browns.
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Pittsburgh also has a plethora of injuries that may affect their performance in this game. They lost starting nose tackle Tyson Alualu for this game due to an MCL sprain, linebacker Devin Bush is currently on injured reserve, offensive tackle Zach Banner is out for the year, and defensive end Cameron Heyward is questionable for this Week 9 matchup. Even with all of these injuries, the Steelers have been handling quality opponents on their way to a league-best 7-0 record. Do not expect a letdown for a team vying for its second 8-0 start in franchise history.
Jessica’s Week 9 NFL Odds & Points Spread Pick: Steelers -13.5
This is one of the largest Week 9 NFL point spreads, and for a good reason. There is not one statistic, offensively or defensively, that the Cowboys are better than the Steelers. Throw in the fact that the Cowboys are essentially fielding a practice quad quarterback as their starter, and you have a situation where the Steelers could easily shutout the Cowboys or, at the very least, keep them under 13 points. If that happens to be the case, you would only need 27 points from the Steelers offense against the worst defense in the league to cover this bet.
NFL Odds & Point Spreads | New England Patriots (-7) at New York Jets, Over/Under 42.5
Rebuild, remodel, revamp
These two AFC East foes are in the middle of a rebuild/revamp. The New York Jets own the worst record in the league this year at 0-8 and are on their way to the number one overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The New England Patriots, on the other hand, are attempting to rebrand themselves after their 20-year Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady left to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past offseason.
The difference between these two teams comes down to their end goals. The Patriots are clearly still attempting to improve and potentially reach the playoffs. This is clear by their close games and their recent trade deadline acquisition of wide receiver Isaiah Ford from the Miami Dolphins.
On the other hand, the Jets are shipping out valuable starters like linebacker Avery Williamson to the Steelers and cutting running back Le’Veon Bell outright. They have not put up a fight in any of their games this year and own a league-worst minus-144-point differential this season. They are getting outscored by at least 18 points per game on average and could potentially finish the season winless.
The Patriots may only have two more wins than the Jets this season, but that does not mean they are not trying. They are losing games by less than five points per game on average, and outside of two blowouts by the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, have been respectable in every other game this season. Between the Jets’ inability to keep games close under Gase and the Patriots knack for keeping the score tight, I like the chances of the Patriots covering this Week 9 NFL spread.
Inconsistencies
The major offensive issues with the Patriots come down to turnovers and lack of explosive playmakers. The Patriots lead the league in percentage of drives that end in an offensive turnover at 21.4%. The majority of the blame lies solely on quarterback Cam Newton who has only thrown two touchdowns this season and has paired that with seven interceptions. He has also fumbled the ball three times this year, which brings his turnover total to 10.
However, some of the blame can be placed on the Patriots’ lack of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Wide receiver N’Keal Harry is their top outside pass catcher, and on most other teams, he would not even be one of the top two targets. Their lead rusher, Damien Harris, is averaging 69.8 rush yards per game, which sits 39th best in the NFL this year. Add in the fact that perennial safety blanket Julian Edelman is now on injured reserve, and these Patriots have many question marks across the board.
Jets quarterback Sam Darnold is the epitome of inconsistent after having a promising first two seasons of his career. If Darnold keeps up his current pace, he will throw for less than 10 touchdowns this year and double-digit interceptions. His completion percentage has dropped to 58%, and he is throwing for less than 175 yards per game.
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Some of his problems may be due to head coach Adam Gase’s ineptitude, but a lot has to do with his overall skill set as well. He is on pace for over 40 sacks this season and a passer rating under 70. With fewer weapons than years past and a team that is clearly okay with tanking for the first overall pick, Darnold’s 2020 season (and potentially his career) looks extremely grim.
Coaching masks inadequacies
These two teams lack overall talent, have bottom-tier starting quarterbacks, and field lackluster offenses. The main difference between them, however, comes at the head coach position. Comparing Gase and Bill Belichick is the equivalent of comparing apples to oranges.
Belichick has won eight Super Bowls (two as defensive coordinator with the New York Giants) and has appeared in 11 in total. He owns a 72% postseason winning percentage and has built numerous top defenses over his career as a head coach and defensive coordinator. Belichick has a knack of taking away an opponent’s main offensive threat and challenging them to attack his defense using secondary players.
Gase’s claim to stardom came as the offensive coordinator during Peyton Manning’s record-breaking passing season in 2013 as a member of the Denver Broncos. Since that incredible season, Gase lead teams have never held an offensive ranking above 21st in the league. In fact, three out of his four head coaching years has seen his offense ranked 28th or worse in the league.
Another astonishing fact regarding Gase is his propensity to lose by a large margin. He boasts a 30-40 overall record as a head coach, with 31 of those 40 losses coming by a margin of 10 or more – the most of any coach since 2016. He has doubled his peers when it comes to this statistic; among active head coaches, the average rate of double-digit losses sits at 19%. Gase owns a whopping 44% average.
Jessica’s Week 9 NFL Point Spreads Pick: Patriots -7
These NFL odds are simply off. Belichick versus his old team. Incompetent Adam Gase. One team adding pieces at the trade deadline while the other dismantles its core. I expect the Patriots to do enough in this game to cover this Week 9 NFL spread and make a statement that they are not going to be a doormat in the AFC East this season. They still can make a legitimate run at the expanded playoff format in this 2020 season, and this game is one they handle appropriately.
Other Betting Team Writer’s Week 9 NFL Point Spread Picks
Drew Haynes’ Best Bet: Ravens -3 | -110
Unfortunately for me, I hopped on this line on Monday because I thought the line would move the other way, but with the Ravens Covid concerns, this line now sits on -1.5. However, at the time of writing, it appears as though the defenders that are in quarantine due to the contact tracing protocol will play as they continue to have negative tests.
Marlon Humphery will be missed, but even without him, this team is better on both sides of the ball than this Colts team. I expect Phillip Rivers to struggle mightily as the run game sputters against this strong Ravens front seven, and this offense will simply not be able to put up enough points to hang with the dynamic Ravens offense.
Drew Haynes’ Best Bet: Washington -2.5 | -110
I understand the NFL odds line move in favor of the Giants, who looked impressive on Monday night football in their near-upset of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, this is simply a horrible spot for them as they will have to turn around on a short week to and travel to Washington, who is coming off a bye.
Washington has more playmakers on offense, and their defense has proven to be a top-ten unit in the NFL. Look for Washington to come out rested and focused, seeking revenge from their 1 point loss early this season and cover this NFL point spread.
George Templeton’s Best Bets: Seahawks -3 | +100
Seattle excels in the 1 p.m. eastern time slot like few teams from the West Coast ever have. Also, given Buffalo’s recent form, I think it’s time to ask the question, “are the Bills a fraud at 6-2?” And if this game becomes a shootout, the Bills do not have the firepower to keep up with a Russell Wilson-led offense.
Raiders ML | -105
Las Vegas’ playoff charge will start to ramp up here by beating the Chargers. The Raiders only road loss this season was against a pre-COVID Cam Newton and the Patriots, and they’ve beaten the defending Super Bowl champions on the road. The Chargers’ defense is vulnerable to the deep ball, so a big game for Henry Ruggs will win the game for Vegas.
6-point teaser, single-game parlay, Steelers -8, O35.5 | -120
Normally I would proceed with caution with the Steelers in the game after playing the Ravens because that’s often a let-down spot for them. But they are playing the Cowboys who are starting Garrett Gilbert at quarterback? And Dallas has that terrible defense. The Steelers’ defense will probably get a defensive touchdown and set up the offense with short fields. This won’t be pleasant for Dallas.
Chris Smith’s Best Bet: Teaser Giants +9 and Texans -0.5 | -120
While the Giants suffered another tough defeat at home against the Buccaneers this past Monday Night, Daniel Jones and the crew continue to finish strong against the spread improving to 5-3 on the season. This week they are about 2.5 point underdogs in a divisional matchup on the road against the Washington football team.
The Giants won the first matchup between these two NFC East foes just three weeks ago, and I haven’t seen much from either team since to indicate this one won’t be a nail-biter as well. The Giants opened as 3.5 point underdogs, so at this point, you might be better off looking for them to win outright on the moneyline at a substantially better payout. Either way, I suspect the Giants find a way to keep it within a field goal, so buying the hook and getting New York +3 might also be an option. NFL odds lean Giants +3.
The Texans seem to start 1-4 every year out of the gate, yet find a way to finish around .500 on the season. A quick glimpse at their schedule indicates Houston could be in for a similar finish in 2020. This week the Texans travel to Jacksonville, where the Jaguars will be starting unheralded Jake Luton at quarterback.
The Texans have had the Jaguars number, winning 11 of 13 straight up, and now they are laying less than a touchdown against a quarterback making his first NFL start. Houston is coming off a bye and no longer has the uncertainty of Will Fuller’s potential trade status lingering over them. I believe the Texans blowout a Jacksonville team that seems to be angling towards the “Tank for Trevor” mode I predicted we would eventually see during the preseason. NFL odds lean Texans -6.5.
Follow Jessica @GridironAndWine and Pro Football Network @PFN365 on Twitter for all the best betting advice for the 2020 NFL season.