The NFL has been around for many generations, and the cliché “defense wins championships” is just as prevalent today as it was when the league started. A good defense makes up for poor offensive showings and typically sets up the offense in enemy territory. This week, I will focus on two games that highlight significant defensive disparities and their influence on NFL point spread odds that present possible value before making my NFL point spreads picks for Week 12.
NFL Odds & Point Spreads, Week 12 | San Francisco (+6.5) at Los Angeles Rams, Over/Under 45
The injury bug
We all know that a successful season can come down to how healthy a team can stay throughout the season. Between the Super Bowl hangover and the plethora of injuries the San Francisco 49ers have withstood this season, it is pretty clear as to why they own a 4-6 record and sit at the bottom of the NFC West. They are fielding a team without their starting quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, their elite defensive end in Nick Bosa, their starting tight end in George Kittle, and other vital positional players.
Part of this injury bug issue for the 49ers could come down to the simple fact that since head coach Kyle Shanahan has arrived, San Francisco has not included live tackling in their team practices. Since his arrival, the 49ers have been plagued with injuries to key players, and this year seems to be the climax. Facing a ferocious and physical team like the Los Angeles Rams will wear down the 49ers throughout the game and keep their depleted squad under control.
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The Rams have remained relatively healthy throughout the year, and their 7-3 division-leading record is a clear indication of that. They have one of the most dominant defenses in the league. They have been able to field their entire roster the entire season, which has allowed them to handle their NFC West rivals and plenty of other opponents like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week.
Offenses sell tickets
These two teams are different in their offensive philosophy because the 49ers will run on all three downs if they can, while the Rams run the ball and use a dink and dunk passing offense to move the ball down the field. The Rams are one of the most efficient offenses in the league because they take what the defense gives them, and they typically focus on the first or second options with their reads.
The 49ers, on the other hand, absolutely need a strong running game to have any semblance of an offense. As we have witnessed time and time again, if a defense can shut down the running game of the 49ers, the offense can easily be stopped in their tracks for the majority of the game. During Jimmy Garoppolo’s 2020 regression, as well as the stints we have seen with Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard, these offensive woes have been more apparent than in years past.
Defense wins championships
Both of these NFC West foes still possess dominant defenses. Still, the main difference between them is that the Rams keep their offense on the field and allow their defense to rest while the 49ers keep their defense on the field for most of the game with their consistent three-and-out drives.
The Rams allow the fewest total yards per game and fewest yards per play in the NFL, coming in at 291.9 per game and 4.7 per play, respectively, while the 49ers sit at sixth-best with 315.9 per game and 5.2 per play. They both field top-four passing defenses, although the 49ers allow significantly more passing touchdowns than the Rams – 17 on the year for the 49ers and a league-leading 11 for the Rams.
The Rams field a near-complete defense and can defend both the pass and the run equally well. They have excellent pass rushers and run stoppers led by the best defensive lineman in the game, Aaron Donald, and they can also shut down the pass with a secondary led by cornerback Jalen Ramsey. They are tied for fifth with 10 interceptions and only allow a league-best 5.1 yards per pass.
Los Angeles should be able to shut down 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel and stop the Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman-led running game. If and when they can generate pressure on 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens, the Rams will cause him to see the same fate that many quarterbacks have this season when facing the Rams defense, with multiple mistakes leading to good offensive field position.
Jessica’s Week 12 NFL Odds & Points Spread Lean: Rams -6.5
This is an example of one team rising the NFL’s rankings and another falling to the basement. When healthy, both of these teams are equally dangerous, but with the 49ers flailing and looking towards 2021, the Rams present the better opportunity to win and take a firm hold of the lead in the NFC West. This is a divisional game and presents no letdown after a big Buccaneers win. If the Rams can handle the 49ers this week and cover the NFL odds for Week 12, they can control their destiny with three of their final five games coming against the Cardinals and Seahawks for the division championship.
NFL Odds & Point Spreads | Miami Dolphins (-7) at New York Jets, Over/Under 44.5
The free-for-all AFC East
Welcome to the Wild, Wild East. If you remove the Jets from the equation, the remaining three teams in the AFC East could beat almost any team in the NFL. The one team that does not belong is the New York football team, and that is because they are tanking for the number one overall pick and Clemon quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
The Miami Dolphins have put together one of the best defenses in the league in less than a year. Head coach Brian Flores coached the stout New England Patriots defense for years and is already making his mark on this Miami team with a ball-hawking and bend but don’t break mentality that the Patriots of old were built on.
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The Jets have all but announced that they are tanking this year and are in fierce competition with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The highlight of their tanking was when they straight up cut running back Le’Veon Bell and let him sign with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Elite Joe Flacco versus rookie Tua Tagovailoa. A top-10 defense in the NFL versus a bottom feeder. Yes, it is a divisional game, which is typically tight but do not forget what each of these teams is trying to accomplish this year. The Dolphins are in the midst of changing a decade-long mentality of losing and coming off of a bad loss, while the Jets are trying to be terrible to secure their quarterback of the future.
Extra-curricular factors
Outside of the fact that the Dolphins have a better defense than the Jets, they also boast a better special teams unit as well. Returner Jakeem Grant has already taken a punt return to the house for a touchdown this year and consistently puts the Dolphins in good field position for their offense. The Dolphins also have a kicking duo in punter Matt Haack and placekicker Jason Sanders that are top 10 in each of their respective positions to put points on the board and put the Dolphins in good field position each drive.
On the other hand, the Jets are running out a relative unknown kicker in Sergio Castillo, after their previous starter Sam Ficken was placed on injured reserved. All across the board, the Jets are fielding subpar players either due to injury or due to the fact that they are purposely depleting their roster in anticipation of the 2021 NFL Draft and beyond.
If the Dolphins can improve their offense and not place so much pressure on the defense to keep them in the game, they will have a much easier time controlling this game from the get-go. The Dolphins should be able to win this game on defensive merit alone, but they will need to have both Tua and their run game operating more efficiently than last week if they are to beat the Jets by double digits as they should.
Jessica’s Week 12 NFL Odds & Points Spread Lean: Dolphins -7
The Dolphins are a much better team than the Jets and even better than the last time they faced five weeks ago. Their defense is elite and will cause multiple turnovers versus this Flacco-led offense. The Dolphins lost last week against a tremendous defense that confused and sacked Tua numerous times. The Jets do not possess a defense anywhere near the caliber of the Broncos, and this game will prove so. If it were not for the Dolphins terrible game last week, this Week 12 NFL point spread would be much higher.
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