Every NFL season is filled with breakout performers, and some go on to have very strong careers. But many never again reach that level of production.
Which 2023 top performers will be taking a step back in 2024? Let’s find one candidate from each NFL squad.
Which NFL Players Could Regress This Season?
Arizona Cardinals | James Conner
In his seventh NFL season, and his third with the Cardinals, James Conner finally rushed for 1,000 yards for the first time. Can he replicate the performance?
Probably not.
Conner averaged a remarkable 3.93 yards after contact per attempt, shattering his previous career high of 2.87 set in 2018 and 2020 with Pittsburgh. If Conner goes back to his usual level of play, his overall production will take a huge dip.
Atlanta Falcons | Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins didn’t play a full season last year, but when he was on the field, he played some of the best football we’ve seen from him.
Cousins should be able to elevate Atlanta compared to their quarterback situation last year, but he probably won’t touch his 2023 stats.
There’s solid talent in Atlanta, but it’s not the same as the group of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Similarly, Zac Robinson is a fine offensive play-caller, but he isn’t in the same tier as Kevin O’Connell.
Baltimore Ravens | Lamar Jackson
When you’ve just won MVP, the only direction to go, unfortunately, is down.
Lamar Jackson’s passing numbers shouldn’t take too much of a dip but don’t expect him to lead the team in rushing again with the legendary Derrick Henry now in Baltimore.
Buffalo Bills | Rasul Douglas
Rasul Douglas is going to have some tough assignments as the clear-cut top corner for the Bills this year, and there’s evidence that he may not be quite up to the task.
After a midseason trade from the Packers, Douglas’ performance took a noticeable dip once he got to Buffalo, especially in the postseason.
Perhaps he’ll adjust, but a full season away from Green Bay could prove problematic for Douglas, especially given how far above his previous ceiling he played in the first portion of 2023.
Carolina Panthers | Adam Thielen
In his first season away from the Minnesota Vikings, Adam Thielen returned to 1,000-yard form for the first time since 2018. However, don’t expect him to crack that milestone again.
Carolina newcomer Diontae Johnson is much closer to his prime than the 34-year-old Thielen and should have a leading role in Dave Canales’ offense.
Thielen gained his yards as the sole major receiving target for a team that spent the whole year playing from behind. He simply won’t have as many opportunities this year.
Chicago Bears | Keenan Allen
Keenan Allen played some of his best football in 2023, but it could be a tough first season away from the Chargers. He’ll be competing with the likes of DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet for targets, and throughout the preseason, it’s looked like he’ll be taking a back seat to those players in Chicago’s offense.
Cincinnati Bengals | Zack Moss
When Jonathan Taylor went down, Zack Moss seized the opportunity to put up some fantastic performances. Now, in Cincinnati, Moss has a shot at being the lead back. But things could be very different with the Bengals.
Cincy’s offensive line is nowhere near the caliber of the one Moss ran behind in Indianapolis, and the Bengals throw the ball much more than they run, especially compared to the Colts.
Moss could suffer this year in terms of both volume and efficiency, making him a major regression candidate.
Cleveland Browns | Dawand Jones
2023 rookie Dawand Jones had a solid first season after being selected in the fourth round, but he may not have nearly as much of a role this year. He’s listed as a backup right now, but he could see time with Jedrick Wills not ready to start the season.
Jones may struggle with offensive line coach Bill Callahan out of Cleveland.
Dallas Cowboys | Dak Prescott
After putting up his best season last year, Dak Prescott should be great again in 2024. But the level of production he displayed is tough to match.
Prescott leaned on top receiver CeeDee Lamb extremely heavily in 2023, as Lamb outproduced the Cowboys’ second-leading receiver by nearly 1,000 yards. That kind of reliance isn’t always sustainable and could be hard to replicate this year.
Denver Broncos | Garrett Bolles
Garrett Bolles has been one of the NFL’s quietest comeback stories as he completed a transformation from a holding flag factory to a solid starting lineman.
2023 was one of his best seasons yet, but Bolles could struggle to adjust to the play style of rookie starting quarterback Bo Nix.
Detroit Lions | David Montgomery
The Lions really eased rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs into the league with a light workload early in the 2023 season, but he should come out of the gates ready to explode this year.
That’s bad news for David Montgomery, who, at 27 years old, is exiting the short prime displayed by many running backs.
Montgomery should have a solid season this year behind Detroit’s outstanding offensive line, but another 1,0000-yard, 13-touchdown season is going to be very hard to replicate if Gibbs takes more of a true leading role.
Green Bay Packers | Jordan Love
Jordan Love is a regression candidate because his strong play hasn’t lasted a full season.
Starting around Week 12 last season, Love was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL down the stretch. Even so, that’s a sample size of less than 10 games, even when counting the postseason.
Is there anything to suggest that his hot streak was anything more than that? A poor first two-thirds of the 2023 season and significant struggles as a backup in previous campaigns would lead one to believe otherwise.
Houston Texans | C.J. Stroud
In a similar vein to Love, C.J. Stroud had a tremendous first year as a full-time starter but could be in for a sophomore slump.
It’s been quickly forgotten that Stroud and the Texans were a dropped Gardner Minshew pass away from losing the AFC South to the Colts, as they’re being anointed as one of the top competitors in the AFC to the Kansas City Chiefs.
It’s not clear that the Texans are ready to live up to that billing. Stroud tossed just five interceptions last year while leading the NFL in per-game passing yardage. It’s going to be hard to make so few mistakes with such high volume for a second year in a row, especially as there’s a year’s worth of tape now out on him.
Indianapolis Colts | Bernhard Raimann
Yes, Bernhard Raimann has the opportunity to be an extremely important player for the Colts this year, but there’s also a chance he falls flat in his big opportunity to be a leader on their offense.
Last year was just Raimann’s second in the league, and he displayed a much higher level of play than he did as a rookie. Of course, progression is possible, but adjusting to quarterback Anthony Richardson’s unique play style could provide a serious challenge.
Jacksonville Jaguars | Christian Kirk
The Jaguars came under tremendous scrutiny after signing Christian Kirk to a huge contract, but he’s been very productive in Jacksonville. Essentially, all of his rate-based numbers have increased compared to his stats in Arizona. Kirk missed plenty of time last year, but his per-game yardage was the best of his career.
Expect that to change this season. Calvin Ridley is gone, but Evan Engram will still be a major presence at tight end, Gabe Davis just received a free agent deal of his own after a solid tenure in Buffalo, and first-round rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr. should have a big role as well.
Kansas City Chiefs | Rashee Rice
Rashee Rice enjoyed a strong rookie season as the only viable wideout for the Super Bowl champions, but could have a diminished role this year. Of course, he may or may not be in line for a suspension, but regardless of that outcome, Rice could be in trouble.
Newcomer wideouts Hollywood Brown and first-round pick Xavier Worthy both fit Patrick Mahomes’ downfield-oriented style much more than Rice does. The underneath game will likely center around Travis Kelce, making Rice a secondary option in all regards.
Las Vegas Raiders | Gardner Minshew
Gardner Minshew didn’t take the world by storm as a Colt, but even his modest numbers may be tough to replicate. He threw 15 touchdowns and just six interceptions despite committing 22 turnover-worthy plays compared to just 14 big-time throws.
That kind of luck is not sustainable, so Minshew will either need to play much better or see his stats take a dip.
Los Angeles Chargers | Gus Edwards
To put it bluntly, the Chargers are not the Ravens.
Gus Edwards may not have been the leading rusher in Baltimore last year — that was quarterback Lamar Jackson — but he still enjoyed a key role on the goal line as he scored 13 times. That number doesn’t line up with his 198 carries, 810 yards, or average 4.1 yards per carry.
Expect Edwards to score far fewer times as a Charger this season, especially in a more pass-oriented offense.
Miami Dolphins | Raheem Mostert
By putting up his first-ever 1,000-yard season at the age of 31, Raheem Mostert has already defied recent convention in spectacular fashion. But one has to wonder how long he can keep it up.
Last season, Mostert’s hold on the starting job was already slipping as De’Von Achane exploded onto the scene. Now, Jaylen Wright has been drafted into the mix as well, leaving questions as to just how much of a role Mostert might have this season.
Minnesota Vikings | Aaron Jones
After spending several seasons putting up big numbers as the Packers’ lead back, Aaron Jones might be in for a rude awakening in Minnesota, especially with rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy out for the season. With Sam Darnold at quarterback, expect teams to stack the box, daring the Vikings to throw.
Jones will also be running behind an offensive line that seems likely to be worse than Green Bay’s from a year ago. On top of it all, the Vikings should be playing from behind more than the Packers were a year ago.
New England Patriots | Jabrill Peppers
Jabrill Peppers could easily be the best player on the Patriots this year, but it’s fair to question just how real his 2023 performance was.
By just about every measure, it was the best of Peppers’ career, by some distance to boot, with little to explain why he took such a big step up. He could come back to Earth this year, especially with Bill Belichick no longer around to coach the defense.
New Orleans Saints | Derek Carr
Few fans would tell you that Derek Carr had an elite 2023 season, but he finished 13th in passing yardage, 10th in touchdowns, and among passers who played at least 10 games, eighth in passer rating.
That all adds up to an approximately top-10 quarterback season, which we cannot expect from him this year. Carr’s underlying play did not suggest that he was any more than league average, if that. Expect the numbers to come back to Earth a bit this season.
New York Giants | Kayvon Thibodeaux
This isn’t to say that Kayvon Thibodeaux isn’t going to be a productive player for the Giants, but his statistical production may not be what it was in 2023.
His rate-based stats, such as pass rush win rate, did not imply an 11.5-sack campaign, and with Brian Burns coming over from Carolina, Thibodeaux could take a back seat in terms of getting to the quarterback.
New York Jets | Quincy Williams
There wasn’t much inherently unsustainable about Quincy Williams’ 2023 season — it just came out of nowhere. A change of scenery can help, but it was his second year as a Jet, and while his role did expand, he took an enormous year-over-year step up.
Williams’ improvement is very likely real to a degree, and he should be a positive starter for the team. But it’s not likely that he’ll be first-team All-Pro caliber again in 2024.
Philadelphia Eagles | Lane Johnson
The cracks began to show for Lane Johnson and the rest of the Philadelphia offensive down the stretch last year as the team spiraled into a remarkable end-of-season collapse.
Johnson is a team legend and one of the best linemen of a generation, but it’s fair to wonder just how soon his NFL story will be coming to a close.
Pittsburgh Steelers | Jaylen Warren
This might not be a regression in the most traditional sense, as we aren’t necessarily projecting Jaylen Warren’s counting stats to fall off of a cliff, but the speculation towards last year that he was beginning to steal the top running back role from Najee Harris should come to an end.
Last year, Warren far outpaced Harris in terms of yardage after contact and elusiveness, trends that may not continue and may not need to if the run scheme under Arthur Smith provides more openings for Harris.
San Francisco 49ers | Brock Purdy
Few players in the NFL are more poised for regression than Brock Purdy. He’s provided an incredible storyline and incredible value for the last pick in the draft, but he’s not going to put up MVP-type numbers every season.
The 49ers as a whole could be in trouble this year. They had great injury luck in 2023, but when key players did miss any amount of time, Purdy really struggled.
If the offensive line takes a step back as many expect it to do, Purdy could be asked to shoulder more of the load than he’s able to handle.
Seattle Seahawks | Tyler Lockett
Tyler Lockett’s decline began last year, as it was the first season since 2018 in which he failed to reach the 1,000-yard plateau, and his touchdown total began to fall off as well. With DK Metcalf still entrenched as Seattle’s top wideout and second-year pro Jaxson Smith-Njigba ready to take the leap, it could be an even less productive season for Lockett this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Baker Mayfield
After a resurgent 2023, Baker Mayfield signed a well-deserved contract with the Buccaneers, but the deal could be called into question very quickly this season.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both a year older, and passing game guru Dave Canales is now gone. Worse yet, he’s coaching a divisional rival.
Mayfield and the Bucs struggled on early downs last season and survived on an incredibly high, likely unsustainable, level of play on third down. It’s hard to imagine that Mayfield will be able to recapture that kind of magic or improve in his areas of weakness in the first year with Canales gone.
Tennessee Titans | DeAndre Hopkins
Even putting aside the obvious factor of his increasing age, this year could be less productive than last for DeAndre Hopkins solely due to his team situation.
Last year, his first in Tennessee, Hopkins cracked 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2020, but this campaign may be a tough one.
The loss of Derrick Henry is simply going to be a problem for the offense. Even though it might push the Titans to throw more, the threat of Henry opened things up for the air game in a way that Tony Pollard’s presence will not. Furthermore, the arrivals of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd suggest a diminished role for Hopkins as well.
Washington Commanders | Bobby Wagner
Yes, Bobby Wagner has a chance to be Washington’s best player in 2024, but that doesn’t mean he won’t also be worse than he was last year. His 183 tackles in 2023 is a nearly impossible level of production to replicate — it was a career-high and league-leading total.
At the age of 34, even the legendary Wagner could fall off at any time, especially as he leaves Seattle once more.