Week 18 brings another two Saturday games, and the NFL has given us a treat by scheduling two outdoor games in cold-weather cities. At this time of the year, that usually means freezing temperatures, wind, and the potential for snow to fall. It is quite fitting that two of the final three standalone games feature the hard-hitting AFC North in temperatures below freezing.
Let’s take a look at the weather forecast for Saturday of Week 18 and whether fantasy football managers should be cautious about any options from these four teams this week.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Saturday Week 18 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Weather
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Low 30s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 15-17 mph westerly with gusts up to 30 mph
This game in Baltimore has gotten somewhat of a close shave from being a snow game. If this game had been played 48 hours later, we would be talking about it potentially being a whiteout based on the current forecast for Monday. However, we still have a game being played in freezing temperatures with winds over 15 mph and gusts up to 30 mph.
The temperature alone is not a major issue, with games played in the low 30s seeing a slight decrease in scoring, both in terms of the game and for fantasy purposes. The kicking game suffers more than anything else when the temperatures get this low. Similarly, the wind itself would not be a major issue in terms of the outcome. Sure, deep passes and the kicking game would be impacted, and the gusts add another unknown to consider.
If you are playing conventional fantasy in Week 18 or dipping your toes in the DFS waters, then this game is a concern. Games played in these conditions see a 15-20% dip in fantasy output on average. The passing game sees a drop in excess of 30%, and only 45.5% of kicks between 40 and 50 yards have been made in these conditions.
In terms of fantasy decisions, you are still rolling with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Arguably, their value even increases in these conditions if the game is going to be won and lost in the running game. The pass catchers on both sides are hard to trust, but you likely already weren’t leaning too heavily on the Cleveland Browns with them starting Bailey Zappe at quarterback.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Weather
- Kickoff: 8 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Low 20s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 9 mph westerly with gusts up to 20 mph
If this were the Sunday Night Football game in Pittsburgh, snow would potentially have fallen, but as things stand, there is no snow in the forecast for Saturday. However, we still have a game being played in extremely cold conditions with winds around 10 mph and gusts up to 20 mph.
The temperature alone is not a major issue, with games played in the low 20s seeing a slight decrease in scoring, both in terms of the game and for fantasy purposes. The kicking game suffers more than anything else when the temperatures get this low. Similarly, the wind itself would not be a major issue in terms of the outcome. Sure, deep passes and the kicking game would be impacted, and the gusts add another unknown to consider.
Of the two Saturday games, slightly colder conditions but with less wind are preferable for scoring points and fantasy output.
If you are playing conventional fantasy in Week 18 or dipping your toes in the DFS waters, then this game is a concern. Games played in these conditions see a 10-15% dip in fantasy output on average. The passing game sees a drop of around 30%, and less than 60% of kicks over 40 yards have been made in these conditions.
In terms of fantasy options, it is hard to move away from Joe Burrow or Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins demonstrated last week that he can be a match-winner in any given week. However, it is hard to trust anyone in the Steelers passing game, but the run game is where the value could be found. The Steelers sliced and diced the Bengals with the run game and underneath passes last time out.
The other risk for fantasy managers is that we have no idea whether the Steelers may rest players if the Ravens win and clinch the AFC North. That is a real possibility, and we may not find out until it is too late.