Week 17 brings us another three Saturday NFL games, and two of them are set to be played in stadiums that have been known to be impacted by the weather at this time of the year. The third game of the day will be played under the dome of SoFi Stadium, but fantasy football managers are right to have some nerves about the weather forecasts in Foxborough, Mass., and Cincinnati.
Let’s analyze the weather forecast for the NFL’s Week 17 Saturday games and its potential fantasy impact.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Saturday Week 17 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 9:30 a.m. ET on Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Low 40s
- Showers: 65% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6 mph southerly
The first game of the day in Foxborough, between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers, should be one that fantasy managers have on their radar as a potential concern. This game could see a combination of cold weather and rain, which can be bad for fantasy managers. However, the chances of rain are decreasing throughout the game, which puts fantasy managers in a difficult spot.
Cold weather on its own does not have a major impact on fantasy output. In the past decade, games played between 40 and 50 degrees Fahrenheit have seen an average drop of around 5% in fantasy output compared to names played in 60+ degrees Fahrenheit weather or games in a dome.
When you then add rain into the mix, things get messier. On average, games played in temperatures below 50 degrees Fahrenheit and with rain falling at kickoff see an average of 80.5 fantasy points scored per team, compared to around 95 in clear conditions at higher temperatures. That is a drop of between 15% and 20%, which is far from ideal for fantasy managers.
Most of that impact comes in the passing game, which sees a drop in excess of 20% on average. The running game gets a slight boost but not enough to suddenly make a fringe option a must-start. These conditions would suggest that Rhamondre Stevenson gets a slight boost and makes J.K. Dobbins more intriguing after he was activated this week.
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals Weather
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: 15% chance at kickoff and throughout the game
- Wind: 2-4 mph southeasterly
The Cincinnati weather forecast is intriguing because it currently suggests that the worst of the weather will miss the game between the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals. However, weather forecasts are fickle, and we could easily see the worst of the rain shifting into the window of this game, which would then have a knock-on effect on fantasy managers.
The good news for fantasy managers is that the temperature looks set to be reasonably fair in Cincinnati, which mitigates some of the issues. While we could see a drop in fantasy output of over 15% in New England, with a major impact on the passing game, the impact of the conditions in Cincinnati is set to be closer to 10%. Accordingly, there is less impact on the passing game, with around a 10% drop compared to better conditions.
Therefore, fantasy managers should not worry too much about the conditions in Cincinnati having a major impact on this game. Yeah, the weather may look bad, but with an absence of any notable wind and reasonably nice temperatures, there should not be a major impact on fantasy output.