The 2022 class of NFL rookies has been a solid bunch with several star performers. We’ve seen several betting favorites who could win Offensive Rookie of the Year for 2022 thus far. The latest emerging performer is Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson.
Can the second-round receiver win the NFL Rookie of the Year race? We’re going to dive into the impact Watson had in Week 10 and whether he can actually upset Kenneth Walker and Dameon Pierce as favorites.
NFL Rookie of the Year Odds Heading Into Week 11
Let’s take a look at the 10 players with the best odds of winning the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award entering Week 11, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get a free $50 bet.
- Kenneth Walker
RB, Seattle Seahawks (-150) - Dameon Pierce
RB, Houston Texans (+200) - Chris Olave
WR, New Orleans Saints (+1400) - Garrett Wilson
WR, New York Giants (+2000) - Kenny Pickett
QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (+3000) - Wan’Dale Robinson
WR, New York Giants (+5000) - Brian Robinson Jr.
RB, Washington Commanders (+5000) - George Pickens
WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (+5000) - Christian Watson
WR, Green Bay Packers (+6000) - Jahan Dotson
WR, Washington Commanders (+6000)
Can Christian Watson Win NFL Rookie of the Year in 2022?
The Packers’ offense simply could not make their own breaks until Week 10 against the Dallas Cowboys. A team many slated as the NFC North favorite and with a preseason win total of 10.5, it’s safe to say few projected the Packers to be 4-6 after 10 weeks. It hasn’t helped the Packers have played the fifth-hardest schedule in the league after several of their opponents have significantly outperformed expectations.
One reason why the Packers have so massively underperformed has been the slew of injuries within their playmaking corps. Everyone within the unit has missed at least one game, forcing fourth-round rookie Romeo Doubs, seventh-round rookie Samori Toure, and free agent pickup Sammy Watkins to play roles throughout the season. That wasn’t the plan, though, as the Packers were hoping Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Christian Watson would carry the unit.
Watson entered the NFL as a polarizing prospect. He was a height/weight/speed project out of a very conservative offense at North Dakota State. It was hard to fathom why he wasn’t a surefire first-round prospect after running a 4.36 40-yard dash at 6’4″. But then you’d turn on the tape and see that he struggled running routes with fluidity and had major issues with drops.
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Still, the athleticism was tantalizing, and Green Bay snagged him in the second round to help replace Davante Adams. Watson will be hard-pressed to ever be as good as Adams, but his Week 10 breakout showed how he can be a big contributor for Aaron Rodgers. He set career highs with four receptions, 107 yards, and three touchdowns.
Watson, of course, did score on a deep ball from Rodgers but was also impressive on two crossing routes that took advantage of his ability to run across the middle of the field. The designs were smartly done as they granted him a free release from the line of scrimmage. He had struggled with physicality at the line and creating separation after being jammed.
Despite massive seasons from Walker and Pierce thus far and Olave leading rookie wide receivers in key metrics, Watson has arguably the role that will be in the spotlight more than any of them. Walker is the centerpiece of Seattle’s offense but is unfairly overlooked nationally as Geno Smith has also emerged as a stud. Pierce and Olave play for bad teams and aren’t getting the same attention as the Packers are each week.
If Watson can prove to be a WR1 or WR2 for Green Bay as they fight their way back into NFC playoff contention, then Week 10 was a huge turning point, and he will be a top competitor for the award at the end of the season. He certainly has ground to make up, as Olave is 13th in the NFL with 658 yards on 46 receptions. But Watson has more touchdowns than him, which could help bridge the gap if he can get his yards total in the same ballpark as Olave’s final tally.
It’s a bit of a longshot, but voters could get swept up in the narrative of a massive second-half of the season performance. If Watson’s emergence unlocks the rest of the offense’s effectiveness, it’s almost undeniable he’d be the best rookie considering the depths of the unit’s play until this point of the year.
For now, we wait to see if this is a trend that continues into Week 11 against the Titans. But it’d be a shrewd bet to lay a partial unit on Watson continuing his rapid ascent into a key playmaker in a critical stretch for Rodgers and this Packers team. If Watson goes off on Thursday Night Football, expect his +6000 odds to be drastically lower come Friday morning.