Quarterback play has never been better in the NFL. Although levels remain in the hierarchy of QB play, private QB coaches, passers, and offensive play-callers have found ways to squeeze out every bit of efficiency possible. Turnover rates continue to plummet, and completion rates continue to skyrocket. The intermediate and deep-passing attack is becoming more of a luxury than a necessity, allowing lesser-talented passers the ability to survive in the league.
But there are also more quarterbacks with special physical talent than we’ve seen in quite some time. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were both unbelievably talented, but they were old-school pocket passers, and that archetype hardly exists anymore. Now, we’re seeing athletes like Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes (the sneakiest of all athletes), Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Anthony Richardson. For offensive coordinators, the added threat of the run can also be used as a weapon.
The AFC Hoards Most of the Quarterback Talent
Yet, there’s a “problem.” Almost all of the top talent resides in the AFC. Brady retired. Drew Brees has been retired. And now even Aaron Rodgers is an AFC quarterback. And while having that much talent on one side of the coin creates an obvious imbalance in the league, that’s not necessarily a bad thing for the NFL.
According to Arif Hasan’s QB rankings, four of the top five and seven of the top 10 quarterbacks play in the AFC. And his list does not include Rodgers in the top 10 (No. 11).
MORE: FREE NFL Mock Draft Simulator (With Trades)
What’s even more impressive are the ages of the top AFC passers. Mahomes, who is by far the best quarterback in the league, and it’s not particularly close (anybody that claims to the contrary is trying to be edgy), is somehow the elder statesman. He’ll still be 27 when he kicks off the season against the Lions on Sept. 8.
“There are few quarterbacks that have Patrick Mahomes’ arm strength, accuracy, and escapability, but none have that and his spatial awareness or situational understanding,” Hasan noted in his rankings. “Mahomes finished the season with the passing-yardage record, and that’s only a blip on his list of accomplishments. His performance in Super Bowl LVII was extraordinary and reinforced who he is as a quarterback.”
Allen (26), Jackson (26), Joe Burrow (26), Justin Herbert (25), Tua Tagovailoa (25), and Trevor Lawrence (23) provide an unbelievable outlook for the AFC over the next decade, should their current teams ensure they remain in the same uniform for the long run.
At just 24, Jalen Hurts resides at the top of the rankings for the NFC. However, Dak Prescott is almost 30, Geno Smith and Derek Carr are 32, and Kirk Cousins is 34. Jared Goff is 28, but is he really good, or was his environment so insulated that he was once again able to find the efficiency Sean McVay was able to squeeze from him? And how long will that last?
There’s certainly hope for the likes of Justin Fields and Bryce Young in the NFC, but one has struggled in a poor situation in Chicago (which has improved on paper), and the other is a historic size outlier.
Brock Purdy produced out of his mind as a rookie seventh-rounder in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but there’s very much a chicken-and-egg conversation to be had there. Additionally, there’s no guarantee he retains the starting job coming off his elbow injury, as Trey Lance was the third-overall pick in 2021 and is further along in his rehabilitation process.
“Just watching him now, he’s doing all the same drills all the other quarterbacks are doing, Shanahan told reporters regarding Purdy. “He’s just using a towel to throw. But still doing violent motions, still moving it, but he’s just not doing it with a football. He will get closer to that, and as long as there’s not a setback, we think he will be there in training camp [in July], but he can get so much better right now.”
The QB Imbalance Is Actually a Good Thing for Football Fans
From a team-fandom perspective, it’s not the best thing in the world. Having a good team and roster in the NFC is certainly not going to be a bad thing. However, it comes with the caveat of being almost completely outclassed by whoever the team faces in the Super Bowl, at least from the QB perspective.
But from a general NFL fan perspective, having such an imbalance is outstanding. Every year we get dud weeks, where great teams are playing awful teams, and mid-level teams with mid-level quarterbacks are matched up against one another. But with so much talent in the AFC, it’s nearly impossible to look at the NFL schedule and find a week where there aren’t a few different incredibly exciting games.
MORE: What Does Lamar Jackson Mean to Baltimore Ravens Defense?
Injuries will inevitably change things in-season, but having that imbalance creates a way to organically create excitement on a weekly basis for fans watching nationally televised games.
Yet, it goes even deeper than that. We went nearly two decades practically knowing that Manning or Brady would be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. And while it’s probably safe to, as a rule, pencil Mahomes in there right now, there is enough physical talent in the conference to keep things exciting throughout the season and in the postseason.
You’ll likely see clusters of teams in each conference in NFL Power Rankings. The AFC will dominate the top of the list before NFC teams come in behind them to create their own cluster of Tier 2 and 3 teams. Aside from the Eagles, who once again have the looks of a powerhouse roster, the NFC is competitive and open.