Accuracy
Things certainly haven’t always been pretty for Fields in the accuracy department. He ranks as the worst quarterback in Pro Football Reference’s Bad Throw rate. Only five QBs throw on target less often.
However, that doesn’t make him inherently inaccurate. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady both have lower On Target rates than Fields, and Dak Prescott’s is only slightly better. There are better ways to measure accuracy, especially when Fields also possesses the highest average depth of target in the NFL.
Of the NFL quarterbacks with 240 plays, Fields has the fourth-lowest completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) in the league. The lowest two are fellow rookies Wilson and Lawrence.
Each week, I’ve watched the tape of each rookie quarterback for our Rookie QB Rankings pieces. And each week, it was the piece I feared most, because watching these young players struggle nearly broke me.
But it also provided me with ample context. Fields attempts far fewer passes per game than either Wilson or Lawrence, so his sample size skews things. He’s only attempted 30 passes in a game twice. Meanwhile, the Bears attempt the third-fewest passes per game in the NFL.
Improving with reps
Early on, the Bears’ wide receivers and Fields couldn’t get on the same page. In the first six weeks of the season, Fields’ CPOE was -7.4. That was in a 148-play sample. Since Week 7, his CPOE is -0.2, meaning he’s completing just slightly fewer passes than one would expect.
That intermediate passing ability is what makes me so excited about Fields’ future. It’s what most draft scouts loved about him as a player. The throws are second nature to him.
Fields’ lack of reps was a coaching failure. Allen Robinson said it himself. Andy Dalton was the one who got the first-team reps in training camp.
Vision and ability as a runner
Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson are electric athletes with jaw-dropping ability to string together multiple cuts, spins, and other incredible evasive techniques. Fields reminds me much more of Jalen Hurts as a runner. He has a feel for leverage in open-field situations, both in the pocket and as a runner. Honestly, it’s better behind the line of scrimmage, but it helps him avoid negative plays.
The San Francisco game is where his ability to avoid contact really flashed.
The scary thing about Fields as a runner is that he makes it look effortless. The 230-pounder that ran a 4.46 is a sneaky athlete on tape. Since the Week 7 demolition at the hands of Tampa Bay, the rookie QB has run the ball more on both designed runs and scrambles — and he’s gotten positive results.
Fields has a powerful and explosive base in a dense frame. That makes it hard for defenders to bring him down on first contact if he can anticipate it.
Every once in a while, he gets a chance to really show off his speed. But make no mistake, Fields is not a running quarterback. He is a downfield dropback passer that just happens to possess some freakish size-adjusted athleticism.
Areas to improve
One look at any metric will tell you that although Fields has the physical tools to be successful in the NFL, he’s not there yet. The situation dictates success in young quarterbacks, but if a player is perfect, the situation won’t stop them from being regarded as one of the best.
Fields has a lot to work on, but his development is more straightforward to visualize than the other two rookie quarterbacks struggling to stay afloat in bad situations.
The quick game
The Ohio State offense Fields operated under Ryan Day wasn’t the typical OSU offense that… that other guy… had implemented with previous Buckeye QBs. They transitioned from a mesh-heavy, zone-beating horizontal attack to a downfield, option-heavy scheme to fit the strengths of route runners like Chris Olave and unbelievable athletes like Garrett Wilson.
Fields didn’t work the quick game often, and it showed early in his rookie season. Bears head coach Matt Nagy put him through trial by fire, using a heavy dose of empty to try and speed up the young quarterback’s process by taking protection away and inviting pressure with man coverage behind.
The problem is that the Bears’ blockers are losing on their own against four-man rushes. But as we head into Week 15, Fields is becoming more consistent at making the snap decision and getting the ball out in empty sets.
The Packers show pressure here on this long third down, but they drop seven defenders into a Cover 2 look with the field-side cornerback dropping to the deep half and the play-side safety taking the middle of the field underneath. It’s like a half-invert, but the Packers use the slot instead of forcing the outside cornerbacks into the deep half.
The All-22 shows Fields using his eyes here to manipulate his key read, which is the slot defender to the boundary who drops back from his blitz alignment. But Fields immediately brings his eyes to the field side to hold that defender toward the hashes instead of the numbers, which creates the soft spot in the zone.
It was an outstanding play from the young QB.
Inability to trust protection
This play is from later in that same drive. I think the decision to throw it to Cole Kmet here is fine. The All-22 end-zone angle of this Fields throw shows the linebacker wrapping and grabbing No. 85, which doesn’t allow Fields to drive to the pass leveraged away from the draping defender.
Earlier in this game, I saw the Packers try to play three vs. four (as noted above in the “Fields must be protected better” section). They had trouble defending the 4×1 looks. This time, they had numbers, but a miscommunication between Savage and Chandon Sullivan left Robinson squeaking through unscathed.
If Fields had more trust in his protection, he could come off the Kmet leverage read and try to extend the play from the pocket.
What’s the point of all this?
As I said earlier, I’ve watched more rookie QB play this season than any man should have to endure. There’s no argument against Mac Jones having the best rookie season. It’s not particularly close, either.
But the flashes from Fields are the most impressive of any of the four rookie first-rounders that have played significant snaps.
There is a precedent that Fields must fight here. ESPN just wrote a piece talking about the company he’s in with his rookie performance. Fields’ QBR is currently under 30, meaning his historical peers are Jimmy Clausen, Blaine Gabbert, Zach Wilson, and Josh Rosen.
But from what I’ve seen in flashes during his rookie season, I’m confident Fields will be the outlier. He won’t just make a Pro Bowl. He’s going to be one of the faces of the league, even if he’s battling for his life the way Andrew Luck did for all those years in Indianapolis.
There’s just too much talent there for him to fail so spectacularly.