The 2024 NFL playoffs head into the Conference Championships, and it’s time to evaluate how all of the various starting quarterbacks have fared this season. There are several different ways to do NFL QB rankings. Do you just look at the last few weeks or the season as a whole? What statistics do you use, and how do you weigh them?
Here at Pro Football Network, we’ve created our own Quarterback+ (QB+) metric, which weighs statistics we value highly and then uses them to evaluate a quarterback across the current season. To avoid small sample-size anomalies, we’ve set the bar at 200 pass attempts to qualify for a ranking but also discussed quarterbacks who did not reach that mark where they are relevant.
Our metric uses numbers that are fully available through 2019, so that’s where the historical context comes from. All data referenced is relative to either the current season or in comparison to stats dating back to 2000 for most or 2019 for pressure-related data.
So, what is PFN’s QB+ metric?
We’ve created a formula for assigning a letter grade to every quarterback’s performance.
Is it perfect? No. Nothing is.
We’re molding stats that include success rates when pressured, third-down conversion rate, and pocket production. The added wrinkle in this PFN insight is quantifying “clutch.”
Defining “clutch” performance is an imperfect science. In this case, we’ve used timeliness-based stats to account for score and situation.
In this article, the rankings reflect where the players finished the regular season. For the players who participated in the playoffs, we have included their QB+ across the season and the playoffs and where they rank among the qualified quarterbacks to have taken a snap in the playoffs (currently 12).
1) Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Regular Season QB+: 99.8 (A+; 1st)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 99.9 (A+; 1st)
Lamar Jackson had an intriguing showing in the Divisional Round against the Buffalo Bills. He threw an interception and lost a fumble but largely put together a good performance around those two mistakes. In a week with some questionable quarterback play, Jackson finished with the best QB+ of the week at 85.7 and the fourth-best of the playoffs so far.
The two mistakes came when Jackson was being pressured, resulting in a -0.52 EPA/DB when pressured, which ranks 15th of the 20 playoff performances so far. However, for the second week running, he was excellent from a clean pocket, with a 0.65 EPA/DB. Additionally, Jackson converted on 71.4% of third-down opportunities and finished with a 9.6 nYPA.
Jackson finished the game leading his side down the field to score a touchdown. He then hit Mark Andrews in the hands for what should have been the game-tying two-point conversion, but the veteran tight end dropped it. Despite the way things ended, Jackson more than demonstrated his MVP credentials in the playoffs.
MVP voting was already done before the playoffs started, and by our metrics, Jackson’s body of work during the regular season should see him taking home the award for a third time.
Across the regular season, his QB+ number is even better than his incredible 2019 MVP season. Jackson leads the league in EPA/DB (0.31), nYPA (8.5), TD/INT rate (10.3), and tied for the league total touchdowns (45). He’s also first in the NFL in performances from a clean pocket (0.51 EPA/DB) and second when pressured (-0.00).
Although Jackson’s performance at the end of the season hasn’t been as dominant as we might have hoped, he’s still a top-five quarterback over the last four weeks of the regular season. Across the entire season, Jackson has three games graded as an A- or above and just two graded below a C-.
2) Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Regular Season QB+: 92.8 (A-; 2nd)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 90.6 (A-; 3rd)
The Jared Goff train fell off the tracks in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. We had seen a couple of these performances from Goff during the playoffs, but barring the loss to Tampa Bay back in Week 2, the team always had enough to overcome his struggles. Unfortunately, with injuries mounting on defense and a pick-six in the mix, the Lions could not overcome a bad day from their quarterback.
His performance ranked as the 15th-worst performance of the playoffs and the seventh-ranked performance of the eight quarterbacks to take the field in the Divisional Round. Goff melted under pressure in this game, finishing with a -0.59 EPA/DB, and could only convert 28.6% of third-down conversions.
Goff’s numbers from a clean pocket were good (0.63 EPA/DB), with only Jackson posting better numbers this week. However, he finished with a 0.02 EPA/DB overall and completed just 57.5% of his passes.
This was a sad way for Goff’s good season to end. He was second this year in both overall EPA/DB (0.27) and from a clean pocket (0.50 EPA/DB). His numbers, when pressured over the course of the season, do not look great, with a -0.21 EPA/DB, but he ranked 16th at the position among the 39 qualified QBs.
Goff had also been superb in clutch situations and on third down this season. He finished the year with a 45% third-down conversion rate, which ranked fourth. He was also ranked second in nYPA (8.2) and completion rate (72.4%) while finishing eighth in TD/INT rate (3.1)
Goff’s hunt for an MVP stalled heavily after his five-interception performance in Houston and then when he was outplayed by Allen in Week 15. Nevertheless, his consistency has been remarkable, with no games graded below a C-.
In addition, Goff has produced the best (Week 11 vs. Jacksonville) and the third-best (Week 4 vs. Seattle) single-game performances of the season.
3) Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Regular Season QB+: 91.7 (A-; 3rd)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 93.2 (A; 2nd)
Josh Allen’s performance in the Bills’ Divisional Round win over the Ravens was far from his normal level, grading as a C (74.1). In the heat of the moment, all that really matters at this point is the victory, and the Bills came away with that. Crucial in that was Allen not making any mistakes, but he also did not have his most efficient game.
On Wild Card Weekend, Allen was imperious from a clean pocket, with a 0.6 EPA/DB. But against the Ravens, that fell to -0.12, which ranks 17th among the 20 playoff performances. A lot of that was a lack of big plays, as he finished with just 127 yards despite completing 72.7% of his passes at 5.7 nYPA.
The only real positive in Allen’s performance this weekend was that he posted a 0.06 EPA/DB when being pressured, which was the seventh-best single-game performance of these playoffs. The rest of his numbers were either in the bottom half of the 20 playoff performances this year or around average. The positive spin on this is that there is plenty of room to take it up a level next weekend in Arrowhead.
Despite some eye-catching performances on the field, the individual game numbers do not show much dominance from Allen. He has yet to grade above a B+ in any game this season, with his best outing being the 17th overall single-game performance. That was back in Week 3, with his highest single-game performances since then being 35th and 37th overall in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively.
The overall body of work sees him as one of three quarterbacks getting an A grade of some sort. Intriguingly, 2024 was only tied for his second-best career season, matching his 2022 numbers but falling short of his A+ performance back in 2020.
For the season, Allen is inside the top five for most of the statistics we look at in QB+. His 0.24 EPA/DB ranks third in the NFL, and he’s fourth in both EPA/DB from a clean pocket (0.37) and third-best when pressured (-0.05). The only statistic of note where Allen is not in the top five is his third-down conversion percentage (sixth, 44.4%).
When assessing Allen’s MVP credentials, there are a few things to look at. Firstly, he doesn’t have Jackson’s incredible season-long numbers, and he lacks top-tier single-game performances.
Allen also has as many D+ or lower-graded performances as Jackson. Additionally, Goff has higher full-season numbers than Allen and a higher floor and ceiling when it comes to single-game performances.
4) Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Regular Season QB+: 88.7 (B+; 4th)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 84.6 (B; 6th)
Jalen Hurts went from his worst game of the season on Wild Card Weekend and took it even lower in the Divisional Round. Hurts now holds the second and fourth-worst QB performances since 2019 in a playoff win. Granted, this performance deserves an asterisk for the snow and Hurts playing through a painful-looking injury in the second half.
Hurts finished the game with a -0.26 EPA/DB, thanks to a -0.90 EPA/DB when pressured and 3.3 nYPA. This was a ridiculously inefficient game for Hurts, who had just 128 passing yards despite completing 75% of his passes. In individual games in these playoffs, Hurts now has the worst and third-worst EPA/DB when pressured, the third-worst EPA/DB overall, and the worst third-down completion rate.
There are positives. Firstly, a 44-yard touchdown run to open the scoring in the first quarter. Secondly, another game where he did not turn the ball over, even if he did take a safety in the third quarter. Additionally, he finished with a 0.39 EPA/DB in the fourth quarter, giving him two of the top-five performances with the game on the line in these playoffs.
It’s fair to think Hurts may have been rusty on Wild Card Weekend. We didn’t see him for the last 2.5 weeks of the regular season, and he finished the year just outside of an A grade with a B+. Yet, he finished with the highest season-long QB+ (89.1) of his career after leading the Eagles to an NFC East title this season. That rust remained in the Divisional Round, but once again, Saquon Barkley bailed him out.
Playing well from a clean pocket (0.47 EPA/DB; third), on third downs (44.3%; seventh), and having a solid nYPA number (7.3; 10th) has been Hurts’ calling card this season. However, he’s struggled when having to make plays under pressure, ranking 22nd on the year with a -0.37 EPA/DB (23rd).
Hurts has also been impressive in key situations. He has a 0.52 EPA/DB in the fourth quarter in one-score games, which leads the NFL.
The Commanders have to be looking at Hurts’ struggles under pressure as an opportunity this weekend. The problem is that devastating playmakers surround Hurts and have a top-12 offensive line in front of him. Therefore, getting pressure on him is not easy, and if Washington does not get to him, his playmakers could make them pay in space.
5) Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Regular Season QB+: 88.5 (B+; 5th)
Joe Burrow bookended his season with his two worst performances of the year. Week 18 was his worst QB+ of the season, but that doesn’t diminish everything that Burrow did this year.
Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals’ offense put the team on their back and kept them in the playoff race until the last possible moment.
Unfortunately, Burrow’s Week 18 performance saw his grade drop outside of the A- range, finishing fifth overall with a B+. However, it was still Burrow’s best season of his career, narrowly beating his impressive 2021 season.
At times, Burrow has been mentioned in the MVP conversation, but because Cincinnati finished at just 9-8 and out of the playoffs, that discussion was always going to end before it really started.
Burrow’s numbers clearly show where he falls below the others in the top five. He was just seventh in overall EPA/DB (0.15) and inside the top five when pressured (-0.11 EPA/DB). Additionally, he slid outside of the top 10 in EPA/DB from a clean pocket (0.29) to finish 11th while also finishing 12th in nYPA at 7.1.
Burrow’s best attributes on the season have been a 45.7% third-down conversion rate (third), a 4.8 TD/INT rate (third), and a 70.6% completion rate (fourth). He tied for the lead in total touchdowns (45) and led the league in both passing touchdowns (43) and passing yards (4,918).
6) Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Regular Season QB+: 87.9 (B+; 6th)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 89.8 (B+; 4th)
Baker Mayfield entered the playoffs as one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL over the final few weeks. And despite losing at home to the Washington Commanders, Mayfield’s numbers were excellent.
He led all quarterbacks in the Wild Card round in EPA/DB (0.57) and nYPA (10.2). He was one of just three quarterbacks with a third-down conversion rate of over 60% and one of four with a positive EPA/DB when pressured (0.23).
Unfortunately, Mayfield’s lasting memory of the game will likely be his fumble in the fourth quarter, which allowed Washington to take a 20-17 lead. That will sour any view of the otherwise impressive performance from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback. This was his best performance of the season and the best QB+ in a playoff loss since 2019.
It’s been an up-and-down season for Mayfield, who has nine single-game performances graded as a B- or better and four graded as a D+ or lower. Despite the lows, this is the best season of Mayfield’s career by a considerable distance and only serves to show that the Buccaneers were right to hand him a long-term deal last offseason.
Mayfield’s 0.17 overall EPA/DB ranks sixth, thanks in large part to a 0.30 EPA/DB from a clean pocket (eighth). Additionally, he’s converting on 47.2% of third downs (second) and is averaging 7.5 nYPA (seventh). Mayfield has really stepped up in clutch situations, especially in the third quarter, where he has the third-best EPA/DB of anyone this season.
Despite a good performance when pressured in Week 18, pressure has been Mayfield’s weakness this year. He finished with a -0.26 EPA/DB when pressured for the season (14th). Additionally, Mayfield finished the year tied with Kirk Cousins for the most interceptions thrown this season (16).
7) Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Regular Season QB+: 87.6 (B+; 7th)
We may not hear much about Brock Purdy over the next month or so with the San Francisco 49ers not making the postseason. However, this is likely to be an offseason that prominently features him as he becomes eligible for an extension for the first time in his career.
2022’s Mr. Irrelevant has done everything he can to prove he deserves a big-time deal. Amazingly, a B+ with an 88 score is actually Purdy’s worst QB+ of his career. He did not throw enough passes to qualify as a rookie but was on pace for a QB+ over 90. Purdy then backed that up with a 95.7 (A) in 2023 and arguably could have been the MVP.
For the 2024 season, Purdy finished fifth in the league in overall EPA/DB (0.17) and fourth when playing under pressure (-0.08 EPA/DB) while sitting sixth when playing from a clean pocket (0.33 EPA/DB). Despite all the injuries around him, Purdy still averaged 8.1 nYPA (third) and a 44.3% conversion rate on third downs (eighth).
His touchdown-to-interception rate of 1.7 was a disappointment, thanks largely to his TD rate falling through the floor from 7.6 as a rookie and 7.0 in 2023 to 4.4 this season. That is not entirely on Purdy, given all the 49ers’ injuries this season, but it does paint the picture that he’s a product of the players surrounding him more so than a truly elite QB.
It will be fascinating to see what happens in contract negotiations this year with Purdy and the 49ers. It’s hard to make the case that he doesn’t deserve to be paid like a top-10 quarterback right now, but Purdy may even believe he should be in the top five.
8) Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Regular Season QB+: 85.6 (B; 8th)
Tua Tagovailoa missed the last two games of the season, and while the offense’s mediocre performances demonstrate his importance, they further highlight the injury concerns he carries into this offseason. Tua missed a total of six games this season, four with a concussion and two with a hip injury.
When he was on the field, Tua was largely consistent. He lacked any truly dominant performances, with a B+ performance in Week 11 against the Las Vegas Raiders being as good as it got this season. He only had two games that ranked inside the top 50 this year, and they were also the only two he had in the top 100.
Tagovailoa only had one performance with a grade below a C. However, that came in Houston (F) in Week 15, when he needed to be at his very best. The Miami Dolphins essentially needed to be perfect to finish the season, and despite the Texans being ineffective themselves, Tua imploded.
To end the season, Tagovailoa ranks as the best quarterback in the NFL when facing pressure (-0.00) but has just a 0.27 EPA/DB from a clean pocket (15th). His clutch numbers overall have been good, but there were struggles in the last two games he played.
Tua’s EPA/DB on the season ranked fourth at 0.21, and he’s converted a 10th-best 42.9% of third downs.
9) Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Regular Season QB+: 85.3 (B; 9th)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 86.8 (B; 5th)
Last week, we said that Daniels would need to be even better in the Divisional Round than he was on Wild Card Weekend, and he delivered with an 81.0 game score that was slightly better than last week. He was aided by the implosion from Goff and the Lions’ offense, but Daniels more than did his job, finishing with 299 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
The rookie was excellent, with a 0.48 EPA/DB overall, 9.6 nYPA, and a 71% completion rate. He was once again superb when pressured, finishing with a 0.51 EPA/DB. Daniels now has the best two outputs in these playoffs when being pressured. He complemented that with an improved performance from a clean pocket (0.46 EPA/DB).
Daniels struggled on third downs relative to last week, converting just 30% of opportunities compared to 50% on Wild Card Weekend. However, he was excellent on fourth downs, finishing with a combined 46.2% conversion rate across third and fourth downs. He will want to be better on third downs in Philadelphia, having converted on 40.7% of third downs this season.
Daniels’ season has been somewhat of a roller coaster, but his QB+ grades indicate a relatively high level of consistency in terms of the final metrics. He’s had just one game graded below a C- (D+ in Week 10 vs. Pittsburgh), with nine games graded between C- and C+ and five graded as a B- or above.
Daniels finished eighth in EPA/DB (0.15), ninth from a clean pocket (0.30 EPA/DB), and sixth when under pressure (-0.11). He had 31 total touchdowns during the regular season — 25 of which came through the air.
10) Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Regular Season QB+: 84.4 (B; 10th)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 83.5 (B; 7th)
Patrick Mahomes’s performance in the Divisional Round victory was far from convincing. He finished sixth of the eight quarterbacks in the Divisional Round and 13th of the 20 performances over the last two weeks. However, it was still a C-, which is more than solid and leaves room for improvement next week when they host the Bills.
The numbers for Mahomes were not impressive. He finished with a 0.04 EPA/DB overall, a 30% third-down conversion rate, and 6.5 nYPA. He was fine from a clean pocket, with a 0.34 EPA/DB, but finished with a -0.30 EPA/DB when being pressured. Ultimately, he played mistake-free football, and the Chiefs’ defense and special teams stepped up once again.
It is perhaps not a huge surprise that Mahomes looked a little off-kilter at times. He has not played a competitive game since December 25, so this could be looked at as a nice warm-up for next week. However, this was also Mahomes’ fourth-worst performance of the season, and it resulted in this game being a lot closer than it probably should have been.
Whenever you watch Mahomes this season, there are always a couple of “wow” moments, but you rarely came away from the game thinking he was absolutely dominant. Still, Mahomes rarely costs his team the game, either.
That is demonstrated by his range in QB+ grades in individual games this season, having not once ranked above a B but also not ever graded below a C-.
Mahomes, who has posted a similar QB+ over the last two seasons, is clearly not playing at the same level he was earlier in his career. Yet, the way this team is built means he has to adapt his style. His 47.8% third-down conversion rate leads the NFL, and at times, it feels like the march to the end zone is inevitable when the Kansas City Chiefs are driving.
The biggest concern in Mahomes’ numbers this season has been a 0.25 EPA/DB from a clean pocket, which ranks 18th. The other numbers are good without being special, and his 11 interceptions leave much to be desired.
Mahomes has relied on a lot of help after the catch, ranking seventh in YAC/Cp at 5.9. But he’s also been reliable when pressured, with a -0.13 EPA/DB in those spots (seventh).
11) Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Regular Season QB+: 83.3 (B; 11th)
The New Orleans Saints have certainly felt Derek Carr’s absence this season. They were 5-5 in games where he played and 0-7 in games he didn’t — all five wins came in games in which Carr qualified for a QB+ grade.
Despite the turmoil around the team, 2024 was Carr’s best year in New Orleans. He ranked 11th in EPA/DB (0.11) and finished the year 12th when working under pressure (-0.20 EPA/DB). Carr was also ninth in TD/INT rate (3.0) and inside the top 10 for nYPA (7.5; sixth), albeit with a 10th-ranked 5.8 YAC/Cp.
This offseason will be interesting for the Saints and Carr. The veteran quarterback carries a $51.458 million cap number this year that comes with over $50 million in dead money if they cut him.
New Orleans could shift $30 million from 2025 to 2026 with a post-June 1 designation, but 2024 has proven that without a better succession plan, moving on from Carr would be a very brave move from a new head coach.
12) Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Regular Season QB+: 79.0 (B; 12th)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 76.4 (C; 9th)
The last two weeks of the season were rough for Sam Darnold. Week 18 was his worst performance of the season, and the Wild Card game was his third-worst. They were his second and third performances that were graded as a D and the fourth and fifth graded below a C-.
Against the Los Angeles Rams, Darnold was sacked nine times as his offensive line seemingly fell apart in front of his eyes. A -0.85 EPA/DB when under pressure compounded those issues, and Darnold was also below par from a clean pocket, with a -0.02 EPA/DB. He finished the game with 4.1 nYPA and had a -0.90 EPA/DB when inside the opposing half.
Two bad performances under the bright lights of what was essentially two playoff games are going to have a major impact on how Darnold is viewed this offseason, especially with fans and media outside of those who regularly saw him play. That is somewhat unfair on a quarterback ranked 12th overall in the regular season.
If the narrative that develops this offseason is that Darnold should not be a starter anywhere, it’s misleading. He entered the playoffs with just four performances graded as D+ or below compared to six B- or above grades. The performances in those two big moments are certainly a concern, and there are other poor outings this season as well.
Darnold’s overall numbers are intriguing. He finished eighth in terms of nYPA (7.3) despite only getting 4.9 YAC/Cp (30th). He was 11th from a clean pocket (0.29 EPA/DB) and 19th when pressured (-0.32 EPA/DB). Darnold finished inside the top 10 in passing yards per game (254.1) with 35 passing touchdowns. However, he also threw 12 interceptions.
The one thing that does raise some alarm bells is that Darnold has had issues inside the opposing half on a handful of occasions. He finished the season ranked 30th with a -0.08 EPA/DB in those situations. However, he was generally fine in other clutch situations and converted 39.3% of third-down opportunities (15th).
After what we just witnessed, the Vikings need to at least see what they have in J.J. McCarthy next season. Therefore, unless Darnold is happy playing backup to the second-year man, he needs to try and find a new home.
Yet, the options where he can walk in and start are limited. Darnold may find himself in another bridge-type role alongside a young QB — either in Tennessee, Las Vegas, or New York with either the Giants or a reunion with the Jets.
The situations in Pittsburgh or Cleveland may end up being the most intriguing, but will the Steelers be willing to pay him what he wants? And the Browns probably can’t afford to pay him even close to what he wants.
One option to keep on the radar is the Rams if Matthew Stafford retires. However, they may decide they would rather pay someone like Jimmy Garoppolo, who they may view as having a similar range of outcomes at a lower price.
13) Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Regular Season QB+: 78.8 (C+; 13th)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 77.5 (C+; 8th)
Jordan Love’s performance in the Packers’ Wild Card Weekend loss to the Eagles was disappointing. He finished with a -0.14 EPA/DB as he threw three interceptions. While he posted negative EPA numbers both when pressured (-0.09) and from a clean pocket (-0.17), the latter will be the most disappointing. Only Bo Nix and Herbert performed worse from a clean pocket in the Wild Card.
This was Love’s worst playoff performance of his career and his second-worst of the 2024 season. The only performance worse this year came against Detroit.
Love was visibly hampered by injury in that game, but his two worst performances coming against two of the best teams in the NFC demonstrate there is still plenty of development required in his game.
Love has been a tough quarterback to figure out this season. When healthy, he’s largely been good without being exceptional. He doesn’t have any games graded above a B and only one inside the top 50 on the year. However, he also only has one game graded below a C- despite playing through injury on a couple of occasions.
Love has some contrasting efficiency numbers this season. He ranks fourth in nYPA at 7.8 but is converting just 32.8% of his third-down opportunities (31st). He’s been good when pressured, ranking eighth at -0.17 EPA/DB, which has helped take him to 13th in overall EPA/DB (0.13).
Love’s numbers from a clean pocket and in clutch situations this year should raise some alarm bells for Green Bay going forward.
14) Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Regular Season QB+: 78.5 (C+; 14th)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 75.9 (C; 11th)
After being so careful with the ball in the regular season, Herbert was almost careless at times in the Los Angeles Chargers’ Wild Card loss. Not all of the four interceptions were entirely his fault, but Herbert must take the blame for at least two and arguably three.
As you might expect, he finished the week with a -0.59 EPA/DB, which was the worst of the weekend. And he didn’t get much help from his offensive line at times, either, but he didn’t cope well with the pressure at all.
Herbert finished with a -0.82 EPA/DB when pressured, which is significantly worse than his performance during the regular season when he ranked 16th in EPA/DB when under pressure (-0.29).
He wasn’t much better from a clean pocket, finishing with the second-worst number of the week (-0.33 EPA/DB), and converted just 25% of third-down opportunities. Herbert was 22nd in third-down conversion rate (36.8%) during the regular season.
You could make the case that Herbert’s 242 yards and a touchdown actually flattered him. He had an 86-yard touchdown pass to Ladd McConkey, which significantly boosted his numbers.
Herbert finished with 6.6 nYPA and 8.0 YAC/Cp while completing just 43.8% of his passes. This was his worst performance of the season and the third-worst of his career.
Herbert’s season-long numbers are mostly underwhelming for a player of his natural talent. He’s not in the top 10 in many statistics, ranking second in TD/INT rate (7.7), having thrown just three interceptions. He ranks 11th in nYPA (7.2) and 12th in overall EPA/DB (0.10) and crept just into the top 10 when operating from a clean pocket (0.3 EPA/DB).
Herbert ranks fourth in the last four weeks and may well be peaking just in time for the playoffs. Two of his four B- or better performances came in the last four weeks, and three of his eight games graded as a C+ or better fell in that timespan.
N/A) Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
Regular Season QB+: 78.1 (C+; N/R)
It was a brave call from the Steelers to bench Justin Fields after a 4-2 start to the season. Fields was having his career-best season in Pittsburgh, but the bar was low, and the numbers don’t suggest he should have unquestioningly remained the starter.
There was a lot of promise about what Fields was doing, including ranking 10th when throwing under pressure and 17th when converting on third downs (39.4%). He wasn’t particularly performing badly at anything other than nYPA (6.1).
Fields only threw 161 passes, so he doesn’t actually qualify for a QB+ grade. However, we left him in these rankings because there was a question mark over who should have started for the Steelers in the playoffs. Fields had a slightly higher QB+ than Russell Wilson, who ranked 29th over the last four weeks of the season — all games the Steelers lost.
15) Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Regular Season QB+: 77.6 (C+; 15th)
Geno Smith saved his best until last for the 2024 season, leaving a four-touchdown performance in the minds of the Seattle Seahawks’ coaches and front office heading into the offseason. This was Smith’s only B-graded performance of the year and just his second above a C+.
The Week 18 numbers were beautiful: 0.37 EPA/DB, 54.5% third-down conversion rate, 1.04 EPA/DB inside the opposing half, and 7.8 nYPA. He also had good numbers from both a clean pocket (0.45 EPA/DB) and when pressured (0.17 EPA/DB).
However, despite that, Smith’s overall numbers are underwhelming. He ranks 21st in EPA/DB (0.03), 20th on third down (37.4%), and 14th in nYPA (6.9). Smith essentially matched his 2022 level of play, yet the Seahawks are watching the playoffs rather than playing in them.
Smith is a perfect caretaker QB on an elite roster loaded with talent. If Seattle feels they can get to that, then Smith could be their guy. However, he’s set to count $44.5 million against the cap next season in the final year of his deal. Given their cap constraints, that number is far too high to allow the Seahawks to build a top-class roster to surround him with.
Is it time for Seattle to take the plunge and move on?
16) Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Regular Season QB+: 77.3 (C+; 16th)
Kyler Murray’s 2024 season was his second-best as an NFL player, ranking behind his 2021 season. It’s hard to know what to make of Murray at this point in his career, but the way his contract is structured means the Arizona Cardinals have another season to figure it out before it’s decision time.
Murray’s season-long numbers do not inspire much excitement. He ranks seventh in completion rate (68.8%) but is 14th in EPA/DB (0.09). His 40.1% third-down conversion rate (13th) and 6.7 nYPA (19th) are fine, but is fine really what the Cardinals are looking for?
There is nothing so far in his career to suggest Murray can elevate Arizona to a Super Bowl. Next year will be telling as he moves a full two years away from his knee injury, and it will be 18 months since his return. If he cannot at least get back to the 2021 level, questions will need to be asked entering the 2026 offseason.
17) Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Regular Season QB+: 75.3 (C; 17th)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 76.3 (C; 10th)
After ranking 29th over the final four weeks, Wilson largely put together a solid showing on Wild Card Weekend. He finished with a B- grade on the week (80.5) and was far from the reason that the Steelers lost to the Ravens.
Wilson finished with a 0.10 EPA/DB, 8.7 nYPA, and a 40% third-down conversion rate, all of which are good without being good enough. While he didn’t cost the Steelers the game, he didn’t really do anything to win it for them, either.
Wilson will be a free agent this offseason, and Pittsburgh has some tough decisions to make. They looked toothless in the playoffs, but the Steelers are unlikely to find a viable starting quarterback this offseason, which could open the door to another year under Wilson’s stewardship.
Wilson has been fine since taking over as the starter, but he hasn’t elevated Pittsburgh over what Fields provided or proven to be any “safer.” He finishes the year with a -0.00 EPA/DB (23rd) and ranks outside the top 20 both from a clean pocket (0.23 EPA/DB) and when pressured (-0.38 EPA/DB).
Wilson has struggled in the fourth quarter of close games (28th) and has just a 38.8% conversion rate on third down (17th).
Wilson now heads into the offseason as a free agent. He has stated that he expects to be back with the Steelers, but that is far from certain. Wilson’s options to start are fairly slim. There may be roles open in Tennessee, Las Vegas, and both New York teams as a veteran bridge option to a younger quarterback.
18) Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Regular Season QB+: 74.8 (C; 18th)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 74.6 (C; 12th)
After two throws of the Broncos’ Wild Card game, Bo Nix was the hottest name on many lips. His pass to Troy Franklin was the perfect start after coming off an impressive Week 18 performance — albeit against Kansas City’s backups. Unfortunately, that pass was where Nix’s day peaked before falling back down to earth with a bump.
Nix finished the day with a -0.19 EPA/DB, a 22.2% third-down conversion rate, and 5.9 nYPA. He was fairly good when pressured, with an EPA/DB of 0.16, but he couldn’t make the Bills pay from a clean pocket. Nix’s -0.52 EPA/DB from a clean pocket was the worst performance of the weekend in that situation.
Ultimately, the game graded out as a C- for Nix, which is fine for a rookie’s first playoff start. He defied expectations this year and, after a rocky start, was a consistent option for Denver.
However, Nix got a demonstration of the level required to compete with the AFC’s elite teams when the postseason rolls around. Long term, he’ll be a better quarterback for this experience, but it was a rough one after such an exciting start.
Nix finishes the year 20th in EPA/DB (0.03), 18th in third-down conversion rate (38.7), and 26th in nYPA (6.3). He also ranked outside the top 20 in both EPA/DB from a clean pocket (0.19; 22nd) and when pressured (-0.36; 21st).
That’s not to knock Nix, but just to put into context how far from the average his Week 18 performance was in terms of setting expectations entering 2025.
19) Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Regular Season QB+: 74.3 (C; 19th)
Given the situation in New England this year, Drake Maye has been excellent. Entering 2024, we weren’t even sure how many games Maye would start, let alone finish the year in the top 20 in QB+.
Maye’s offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year by OL+, and it’s hard to make a case he had anything better than a bottom-three skill-position group.
In that context, Maye’s numbers are impressive. He finished 22nd in EPA/DB (0.01), ranking 21st from a clean pocket (0.2 EPA/DB) and 18th when pressured (-0.30 EPA/DB). His numbers on third down (34.3%; 27th) and in nYPA (6.1; 31st) leave much to be desired but can be excused given the situation.
Maye finished the year ranked fourth inside the opposing half with a 0.25 EPA/DB, as well as having a 0.52 EPA/DB in the final two minutes of the first half. Both are good signs of his composure as he moves forward in his career.
The Patriots have much to figure out this offseason, but thankfully, the quarterback position doesn’t appear to be one of them.
20) Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
Regular Season QB+: 73.8 (C; 20th)
Did Aidan O’Connell do enough in the 2024 season to prove he deserves a shot at starting next year? The answer is not a definitive yes, but there is no other obvious option to take the job.
The Raiders are expected to draft a quarterback this year, but will he be ready to start immediately? They could try and get Kirk Cousins or another veteran, but there’s no guarantee of a significant upgrade over O’Connell.
Other than excelling in the clutch and ranking inside the top 12 when it comes to playing under pressure (-0.20 EPA/DB), there’s not much to get excited about with O’Connell. He ranks 27th in nYPA (6.3), 30th in third-down conversion rate (33.3%), and is just 17th in overall EPA/DB (0.05).
We should apply the context that O’Connell played with a 22nd-ranked offensive line and a relatively low-level skill-position group. Brock Bowers is a talent, but Jakobi Meyers is not a No. 1 receiver. There was also no consistency in the run game for O’Connell to lean on, so these numbers need to be heavily caveated.
Hopefully, he gets a chance in better circumstances in 2025.
21) Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Regular Season QB+: 72.2 (C-; 21st)
If Week 18 is to be Aaron Rodgers’ last game as a professional, he’ll be pleased to have not finished in the style he played in Week 17. He produced some fantastic numbers in the clutch and finished with 7.1 nYPA. However, a 0.03 EPA/DB and 37.5% third-down conversion rate hardly paints a pretty picture.
On the season, Rodgers has a -0.02 EPA/DB (27th), ranks 36th from a clean pocket (0.07 EPA/DB), and has converted just 33.5% of the time on third down (29th). His 6.2 nYPA ranks 30th and is very low, considering he’s getting 5.8 YAC/Cp, which ranks ninth this season.
The New York Jets’ offseason will bring plenty of turmoil, but with Rodgers owed a $35 million option bonus just to remain for one more year, it seems unlikely he’ll stay with the team this season.
The question then becomes how he leaves. But whatever happens, it will hurt the Jets. There is $49 million in dead money whether he is released, traded, or retires, so it’s just a matter of how New York wants to absorb the cap pain.
22) Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Regular Season QB+: 71.9 (C-; 22nd)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 73.0 (C-; 13th)
The Divisional Round saw a mixed performance from Matthew Stafford, who finished with 324 yards and two touchdowns but had a costly fumble in the fourth quarter. Given the weather conditions, to finish with a solid C- grade for the game and to have his team with a chance of winning the game at the end was commendable from the veteran.
Overall, the performance from Stafford was middling. It was the fourth-ranked quarterback in the Divisional Round and ranks 11th out of the 20 playoff performances we have seen from quarterbacks in the postseason.
Other than the volume of passing yards, Stafford did not stand out as impressive in this game. However, given that no elements of his game were a complete disaster in tough conditions and on the road, that should be viewed as a net positive.
Stafford finished with a 0.07 EPA/DB and a 42.9% conversion rate. He did not elevate the team from a clean pocket (0.17 EPA/DB) and did not hurt them when being pressured (-0.09 EPA/DB).
Stafford finished the regular season with his second-worst full-season QB+ since 2019. Both of those bottom two have come in the last three years, raising question marks about whether his career is now trailing off to a point where he might be done.
Stafford’s numbers have been a mix across the board. He finished with a 0.07 EPA/DB but excelled from a clean pocket (0.31 EPA/DB; seventh) and struggled when pressured (-0.46 EPA/DB; 30th). He was also excellent in the fourth quarter when there was just one score separating teams (0.29 EPA/DB; sixth) but struggled on third downs (30.8% conversion rate (35th).
23) Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts
Regular Season QB+: 71.3 (C-; 23rd)
Week 18 largely summed up Joe Flacco’s entire season. A below-average performance (-0.04 EPA/DB; 22nd) with woeful numbers when pressured (-0.78 EPA/DB; 28th) and acceptable numbers from a clean pocket (0.24 EPA/DB; 11th). Those essentially mirror his season-long trend — 0.34 EPA/DB from a clean pocket and -0.69 EPA/DB when being pressured.
While Flacco’s numbers for the season are fine, they’re not good enough to suggest he should have a starting role in 2025. If the Indianapolis Colts move on from Anthony Richardson in 2025, they need either a better short-term or long-term option than Flacco.
24) Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Regular Season QB+: 71.2 (C-; 24th)
The Atlanta Falcons made the decision to bench Cousins entering Week 16 after he ranked 28th in the league over the proceeding four weeks. Cousins struggled when operating under pressure and in clutch spots all season, with a -0.44 EPA/DB when pressured (26th). His nYPA of 7.3 ranked ninth, but he was also 11th in YAC/Cp at 5.6.
Cousins’ clean-pocket numbers are solid (0.28 EPA/DB; 14th), but he converted just 34.1% of his third-down opportunities this season (ranked 28th).
Michael Penix Jr. did a solid job in taking over, yet it’s hard to judge him based on just two weeks. However, his D+ grade in Week 17 will leave some fans questioning whether it was too much to put on the rookie. Penix bounced back in Week 18 with a B- performance, but it ultimately wasn’t to save the Falcons’ season.
It’s fairly clear that Penix will be given the keys to Atlanta’s offense in 2025, but the question of where Cousins ends up will rumble on all season.
25) Mac Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
Regular Season QB+: 69.2 (D+; 25th)
Taking over for the injured Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones did reasonably well, especially since coming back into the lineup in Week 13, with no game grading below a C-. Over the final four weeks of the season, Jones ranked 15th, which is a credit to him in tough circumstances. Still, it’s hard to make a case that he’s done enough to earn a starting role anywhere in 2025.
Jones finished the season ranked 35th when pressured (-0.54 EPA/DB) and 33rd in nYPA (6.0). He converted third downs at a 39.8% rate (14th), which is a solid number. His EPA/DB numbers of -0.01 overall and 0.18 EPA/DB from a clean pocket are below league average, which typifies what Jones is as a starter.
26) Mason Rudolph, Tennessee Titans
Regular Season QB+: 69.0 (D+; 26th)
Mason Rudolph did not play enough in Week 18 to merit a QB+ grade for the game, but his final QB+ numbers for the season won’t leave anyone desperate to sign him as a starting option next year.
Rudolph finished the season with a -0.01 EPA/DB, having struggled from a clean pocket (0.08 EPA/DB; 34th). He played reasonably well under pressure, ranking ninth at -0.18 EPA/DB.
He finished the season with 10 total touchdowns and a 1.0 TD-to-INT rate. The opportunities were there for Rudolph to try and make a mark, but playing behind a bad OL didn’t help his cause. He should still have a backup role somewhere and could be the bridge starter in Tennessee if the Titans draft a quarterback but don’t want to throw him in in Week 1.
27) C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Regular Season QB+: 67.8 (D+; 27th)
Regular Season + Playoff QB+: 69.9 (D+; 14th)
C.J. Stroud largely backed up his performance from Wild Card Weekend in the Divisional Round, but unfortunately, the Houston Texans really needed him to have close to his best game of the season, if not the best. As it turned out, the game graded as Stroud’s fifth-best game of the season, but it was some distance from his best back in Week 4 (84.2; B).
It was a mixed performance from Stroud, as he converted on 60% of third-down opportunities and had a 0.60 EPA/DB from a clean pocket. However, he ended up with a -0.36 EPA/DB when being pressured and a -0.31 EPA/DB when inside the opposing half. A little more composure in those situations and Stroud might have led his team to a first-ever AFC Championship Game.
Stroud finished the regular season with 12 straight qualifying games without grading above a C. Over the last four weeks of the regular season, he ranked 28th, with the Texans largely having ridden their defense to clinch the division in Week 15. Week 17 was Stroud’s second-worst performance of the season, as Houston’s offense was shut out in a 31-2 rout.
Stroud’s season-long numbers have looked worse as the season wears on. After so much fanfare in his rookie season, he ranks 29th in EPA/DB (-0.03), 25th in third-down conversion rate (35.1%), and 28th in nYPA (6.2).
He needs an improved offensive line in front of him next year. That group was a mess all season, and it likely hindered the play of the second-year quarterback. Even just playing behind a league-average offensive line would be a huge improvement for Stroud’s outlook in his third year.
28) Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Regular Season QB+: 67.8 (D+; 28th)
Bryce Young continued putting together improved performances in the second half of the season and his career. His B grade in Week 18 was the best of his career and his seventh grade of a C or above in his last nine starts. It wasn’t even like this was a meaningless game, with the Falcons fighting for a playoff spot.
The numbers were impressive, starting with a 0.58 EPA/DB and a 50% third-down conversion rate. He was excellent both from a clean pocket (0.60 EPA/DB; fourth), when pressured (0.46 EPA/DB; fifth), and with the game on the line (0.63 EPA/DB; fifth).
Young has been reasonably good when pressured all year, ranking 10th (-0.20 EPA/DB), which is significantly higher compared to the rest of the NFL than in other statistics. He’s 32nd in EPA/DB from a clean pocket (0.10) and 26th in overall EPA/DB (-0.02).
Some other concerning numbers for Young are that he converted just 31.8% of third downs (33rd) this year, has a 5.8 nYPA (34th), with a 1.7 touchdown-to-interception ratio (23rd). He completed just 60.9% of his passes (35th) and averaged 171.6 passing yards per game (35th).
After the game, Dave Canales gave Young a full vote of confidence. A strong showing since returning to the starting role has meant Young should get another chance to start in 2025. Still, you have to imagine he will be on a relatively short leash if he regresses back to what we saw in his rookie season or at the start of 2024.
29) Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns
Regular Season QB+: 65.7 (D; 29th)
It’s clear that Jameis Winston is not the Cleveland Browns’ long-term answer. Yes, he was by far Cleveland’s best starting QB this season, but that is hardly a ringing endorsement.
Winston was all over the place this year, with three games grading as a D or below and four games grading as a C or above.
It’s not a major surprise that Winston was benched after Week 15 when he threw three interceptions and had just 4.4 nYPA despite getting 6.3 YAC/Cp. He at least completed 64.0% of his passes to the right team (76% if you count the actual ones that were caught by someone) and converted on 37.5% of his third-down attempts.
Winston’s numbers over his last four weeks as a starter saw him rank 30th among 33 qualified quarterbacks, and his overall EPA/DB (-0.07) ranked 32nd among 39 qualified QBs this season. He was particularly bad when throwing under pressure in his time on the field, ranking 36th (-0.54).
Winston should still get a backup role somewhere next year, but the ship has surely sailed on him ever being a full-time starter outside of an injury situation late in camp.
30) Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Regular Season QB+: 65.7 (D; 30th)
Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys will hope that 2024 ends up being a blip in his career. A 66.0 score and D grade are by far Prescott’s worst in our QB+ database, having never finished below 84.2 (B) before that. And after being spotted in a walking boot last offseason, it’s fair to question whether he had been playing injured all season.
Prescott finished the year with a -0.05 EPA/DB (30th), a 32.1% third-down conversion rate (32nd), and 6.5 nYPA (22nd). He was particularly bad from a clean pocket (0.11; 31st) but wasn’t much better when pressured (-0.40; 25th).
These numbers are so ugly it’s fair to view them as an anomaly. Still, if Prescott doesn’t get off to a strong start in 2025, questions will start to be asked.
31) Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Regular Season QB+: 64.5 (D; 31st)
Lawrence’s 2024 season ended when he was placed on injured reserve ahead of Week 14 following a brutal hit from Azeez Al-Shaair in Week 13. Also dealing with a non-throwing shoulder injury, it was a smart decision to shut him down with the Jacksonville Jaguars officially eliminated from playoff contention.
This was an ugly season for Lawrence, and it’s hard not to have major concerns about him at this point. He hasn’t graded above a C+ for an entire season through the first four years and has declined in each of the last two years. Hopefully, a change in head coach will reignite Lawrence’s fading career.
Lawrence struggled when under pressure this season (33rd; -0.48) and ranks 37th converting on third downs (30.3%). His other numbers aren’t as bad, but the cumulative impact is that his grade is the second-worst of his career, ahead of just his rookie season.
32) Daniel Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Regular Season QB+: 64.1 (D; 32nd)
Daniel Jones’ time with the New York Giants came to a strange but inevitable end.
Jones was pretty much bad at everything this season, and at this stage in his career, there’s not much positive that we can seek. The sad part is that this won’t even be Jones’ worst season as a starter in his career, with his 2021 season still having a lower QB+ score.
Jones’ EPA/DB this season of -0.08 ranked 34th, and he was outside the top 25 both from a clean pocket (0.15 EPA/DB; 28th) and when pressured (-0.46 EPA/DB; 31st).
33) Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Regular Season QB+: 63.2 (D; 33rd)
Caleb Williams’ rookie season ended on a relatively high point in Week 18 with a win over the Packers. It was also an above-average performance for him this season, but since it was a C, that says more about the rest of the season than Week 18.
On the season, Williams’ numbers are not good, but they’re not as bad as we saw from Young in his rookie year. Williams finished with a -0.05 EPA/DB (31st), a 30.5 third-down conversion rate (36th), and 5.5 nYPA (37th). He was better in relative terms from a clean pocket, ranking 24th (0.18 EPA/DB) than when pressured (32nd, -0.48 EPA/DB).
Only six interceptions and a 3.3 TD-to-INT rate are both positive numbers to take away from the season. Hopefully, Williams can retain that kind of ratio while improving other elements of his game in 2025 and beyond.
A change of coaching staff will almost certainly alter the course of Williams’ young career in one way or another. It took some time, but we eventually saw a change in coach benefit Young.
Another comparison for Williams is Lawrence, who had a terrible rookie year under Urban Meyer. Lawrence improved in his first year with Doug Pederson before declining ever since.
This is certainly a worrying start for Williams, and we’ve seen it go both ways from here. It took Josh Allen three years to find his feet, and his numbers as a rookie were not a million miles from what we saw from Williams as a rookie.
34) Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Regular Season QB+: 61.9 (D-; 34th)
Despite getting another chance in Week 18, Will Levis finishes with a D- grade (regressing from his D+ grade as a rookie) for the 2024 season, putting his career as a starter in Tennessee in significant doubt.
The Titans have the No. 1 overall pick and, barring something dramatic, are likely to be selecting a quarterback first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.
For the full season, Levis ranks 37th in EPA/DB from a clean pocket (0.03), 29th when pressured (-0.44), and 37th overall (-0.15). He’s been awful with the game on the line in the fourth quarter (-0.49 EPA/DB; 39th) and has 13 passing touchdowns to 12 interceptions.
It would likely have taken something exceptional from Levis in Week 18 to save his job. Unsurprisingly, that didn’t happen, and now he’s facing a career as a backup unless he can have a revival elsewhere.
We’ve seen third-year breakouts before, so there might be a team willing to take a chance on Levis, or we could see the Darnold route of going and backing someone up for a year or two to learn the ropes and get another chance somewhere.
This has been a dramatic couple of years for a player who, at one point in the 2023 NFL Draft process, was considered a potential No. 1 pick.
35) Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders
Regular Season QB+: 60.6 (D-; 35th)
Gardner Minshew II’s season ended due to a collarbone injury, and in some ways, it gave the Raiders an easy path to transition to O’Connell. The younger player deserved to start and be fully evaluated in the final six games to decide how the Raiders should proceed at the position.
Minshew had his best performance of the season in Week 11, but even then, that was a C-graded performance. He had already been benched twice prior to his injury, so it was unlikely he was going to get much more time in a starting role.
Minshew finished with a -0.09 EPA/DB (35th), 6.0 nYPA (32nd), and had a 0.9 TD/INT rate (37th). It’s hard to imagine he starts many more games in his NFL career, but he should still end up somewhere as either a backup or an emergency third quarterback should he continue playing.
36) Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys
Regular Season QB+: 60.0 (D-; 36th)
We didn’t see Cooper Rush in Week 18, with the Cowboys instead choosing to look at Trey Lance in a one-off game. Lance finished with a -0.05 EPA/DB and a 30.8% third-down conversion rate, so it’s not clear what the Cowboys will have learned.
Based on what we’ve seen, Rush would be the safer backup for Prescott in 2025, but he is a free agent, and his upside is capped quite low.
This season has shown where Rush’s ceiling lies. His best single-game performances are a B- and a C+, with the rest falling as a C or below. His overall EPA/DB of -0.08 ranks 33rd and is 38th when pressured (-0.61). Rush converted on just 34.8% of third downs (26th) and had a nYPA of 5.2 (38th), which is just 0.3 ahead of his 4.9 YAC/Cp (28th).
37) Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Regular Season QB+: 59.5 (F; 37th)
The Colts are in a pickle at the end of Richardson’s second NFL season. Although he’s still a rookie in terms of games played (15), Indianapolis will face a decision on Richardson’s fifth-year option next offseason.
At this point, it seems extremely unlikely they pick it up, with Richardson grading out above just two other qualified quarterbacks this season. He missed Week 17 and 18 due to another injury and has played in less than 50% of games in the last two years.
The Colts have one more season to evaluate Richardson, but his poor play, combined with health concerns, doesn’t paint a positive picture.
The season-long numbers are a major concern for Richardson. Not many quarterbacks have a lower EPA/DB than his -0.13 (36th). He also ranks inside the bottom 10 in EPA/DB from a clean pocket (0.12; 30th) or when pressured (-0.53; 34th), and his 31.2% third-down conversion rate is 34th.
Richardson’s TD/INT rate is 0.7, and he has nearly as many rushing touchdowns this season (six) as he does passing (eight).
Hopefully, Richardson can make a jump in his third year. Yet, after missing most of his rookie season, 2025 will feel more like a second year for the young QB.
38) Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints
Regular Season QB+: 50.0 (F; 38th)
Spencer Rattler getting a chance to start as much as he did in 2024 is both a blessing and a curse. He got to put some plays on film that will highlight his potential, but it was a bit of a poisoned chalice with all the injuries in New Orleans.
Rattler finished the year with three games graded as a D, three as a D+, and one as a C+. It would be unfair to judge that too harshly given the circumstances, but there’s no coming away from it thinking he’s a diamond in the rough for the Saints.
Rattler’s season numbers are not pretty. He’s second from last in EPA/DB at -0.21 and in last when playing from a clean pocket (-0.18) but has at least got inside the top 30 when under pressure (-0.44; 28th). Rattler’s nYPA number of 5.2 ranks 38th, and he’s second-from-last in third-down conversions (21.5%).
39) Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Regular Season QB+: 44.3 (F; 39th)
Watson had a rough year in 2024, and 2025 hasn’t started off much better, having suffered a setback in his recovery from the Achilles injury he suffered this past season. As of yet, the Browns do not know what that looks like for the 2025 season, but the timeline was already tight for Watson to be 100% for the season before this setback.
In 2024, Watson ranked in the bottom five for nearly all of the metrics we look at, including third-down conversion rate (19.7%; 39th), nYPA (4.4; 39th), passing from a clean pocket (-0.01 EPA/DB; 38th), and passing when under pressure (-0.55 EPA/DB; 37th). If not for the contract situation, we would likely not even be considering whether Watson might start in 2025 or beyond.
