The NFL has a new highest-paid player. Jalen Hurts took the crown on Monday when he agreed to a five-year, $255 million extension with the Philadelphia Eagles, with his $51 million average annual value placing him just above Aaron Rodgers in yearly salary.
Hurts is just the first NFL quarterback contract domino to fall. With Lamar Jackson on the franchise tag, and Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert now eligible for extensions as they enter their fourth NFL campaigns, more QB deals could be on the horizon. What does Hurts’ contract mean for Jackson, Burrow, and Herbert?
The Ravens Would Love To Give Lamar Jackson the Jalen Hurts Contract
Jackson is still in something of a purgatory after the Baltimore Ravens assigned him the non-exclusive franchise tag in March. With no rival teams stepping up to offer him a contract sheet, Jackson is stuck between playing out the 2023 season on a $32.416 million franchise tender or accepting an extension offer from the Ravens that he believes is below market.
For their part, Baltimore would likely be more than willing to hand Lamar a slightly tweaked version of the contract Hurts just signed with Philadelphia.
Hurts will receive $179.304 million in total guarantees, but only $110 million of that total is fully guaranteed at signing. That nearly $70 million is likely comprised of injury guarantees. If Hurts get injured during his contract, he’ll still be guaranteed almost $180 million. If the Eagles decided to cut Hurts for skill or salary cap reasons, he’d only be guaranteed $110 million.
Historically, differences in total and full guarantees, or even the concept of guaranteed money itself, haven’t been all that significant of a factor in quarterback contracts — because QBs rarely get cut.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Mock Draft Simulator With Trades
But Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million with the Cleveland Browns seemingly changed the game — at least for Jackson. Lamar now wants more fully guaranteed money than Watson, but the Ravens aren’t interested in following Cleveland’s lead.
Along with Kyler Murray’s extension with the Arizona Cardinals, Hurts’ new deal proves that Watson’s contract is still considered an outlier. Teams don’t seem as though they’re suddenly going to be handing out fully guaranteed QB deals simply because Watson had immense leverage over the Browns.
Hurts’ extension sets a new floor for Jackson’s total guarantees, and he probably shouldn’t settle for anything under $200 million. But Hurts’ new pact probably doesn’t move the needle in Lamar’s eyes. If he’s angling for a fully guaranteed deal, then Hurts’ contract may only make Jackson further dig in his heels.
What Does Hurts’ Extension Mean for Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert?
While Hurts’ extension might not mean all that much for Jackson, it’s very relevant for Burrow and Herbert.
Like Hurts, Burrow and Herbert were selected in the 2020 draft class. They still have one year remaining on their rookie contracts, plus a fifth-year option for 2024. Add on the possibility of multiple franchise tags, and Burrow and Herbert don’t have nearly the leverage that Jackson has in negotiations with Baltimore.
As such, the Eagles’ contract with Hurts will work as a guideline for the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers, respectively, as they attempt to hammer out agreements with their star signal-callers.
As always, the team that goes first is likely to get the best deal. Based on performance, Burrow would have likely received a better contract than Hurts, regardless of timing. Herbert, meanwhile, is coming off a relatively down season and hasn’t experienced the team success of Hurts or Burrow. But now that he’ll be able to use Hurts’ extension as a baseline, he might be able to top the Eagles’ QB.
The Bengals will have to break their precedent of not guaranteeing any money beyond Year 1 of contracts as they work to extend Burrow. But Hurts’ contract represents a template that Cincinnati can work off of.
MORE: Aaron Rodgers Trade Rumors — What’s Holding up a Packers-Jets Deal?
As evidenced by the Hurts’ negotiations, NFL teams are clearly willing to give in on average annual values in order to reduce the long-term guarantees. If Burrow wants to become the league’s highest-paid player on an annual basis and is willing to accept less guaranteed money overall as a trade-off, Cincinnati will likely be willing to agree to those terms.
When we projected a Herbert extension earlier this year, we thought a six-year, $300 million deal with $150 million in full guarantees could work for both sides. But given that Hurts only saw 43% of his contract fully guaranteed, Herbert could struggle to reach the 50% threshold.
Because Hurts is coming off a Super Bowl appearance and Herbert just posted the worst season of his career, there might not be an avenue for Herbert to leapfrog Hurts’ new contract. Yes, timing is everything, and if the Chargers want to fall in line and give Herbert a contract similar to or even exceeding Hurts’ pact, Herbert should and likely will accept it.
But if Los Angeles tries to lowball Herbert, he might be better off playing the 2023 season under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and hoping he posts a better campaign before working out a new contract next offseason.