There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is it more prominent than in NFL prop bets. With literally thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for the 1 p.m. ET slate of games.
Top NFL prop bets to wager in Week 3
All prop bets are 1 unit unless otherwise specified. 1 unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.).
It’s also important to remember that lines are constantly shifting due to action and the latest news. I will always be transparent about three aspects of each pick: 1) What line I bet it at, 2) the line at the time I wrote this, and 3) at what price I’d no longer be interested.
Last week’s plays went 3-3, losing 0.55 units. That puts us at -0.96 units on the season. Not the start I was hoping for, but we’re still in the gathering information stage. After back-to-back weeks at exactly .500, let’s get ourselves a winning week.
Michael Pittman Jr. over 64.5 receiving yards (-115)
This line opened at 62.5 earlier in the week. I wanted to bet it immediately, but before I could, it already jumped to 64.5.
Pittman caught nine of 13 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Then, he missed Week 2 after picking up a quad injury at the Wednesday practice.
Without Pittman, Colts QB Matt Ryan completed just 53% of his passes for 195 scoreless yards while throwing three interceptions. Suffice it to say the Colts need Pittman. He’s back this week after getting in three limited practices and carrying no injury designation.
[bet-bonus id=”164810″ ]The Colts and Chiefs could be involved in a shootout. Even if they’re not, Ryan is going to lock onto Pittman like a hungry dog to a pork chop. I’m supremely confident Pittman sees 10+ targets in this game. And I’m even more confident that we see Pittman’s line set at over 70 yards the rest of the season.
I bet this at -115 on DraftKings. Currently, the best line available is 65.5 -114 on Betrivers. It’s likely you won’t be able to get any lower than 67.5 by the time you read this. I would still bet it at 67.5, but not much higher.
Alec Pierce under 25.5 receiving yards (-125)
In Week 1, Colts WR Alec Pierce ran 27 routes and was only targeted on two of them. He didn’t play in Week 2 due to a concussion. During Week 2, Ashton Dulin impressed with five receptions for 79 yards.
Pittman is back this week, and I believe Ashton Dulin has established himself as the superior WR2 while Parris Campbell remains the primary slot receiver. As a result, I’m not sure if Pierce will even come close to his 51% snap share from Week 1.
I bet this at -125 on PointsBet. I took a bit of a heavier vig to get a higher total. Currently, the best line is 24.5 -130 on DraftKings, or, if you prefer, you can take under 23.5 at -115 on MGM. Click here to bet on DraftKings.
Chase Edmonds under 34.5 rushing yards (-110)
This line just doesn’t make much sense to me. Miami Dolphins RB Chase Edmonds rushed for 25 yards in Week 1 and 33 yards in Week 2. Of course, that means he’s failed to reach 35 rushing yards in each of his first two games.
Last week, we saw the Dolphins move more toward using Raheem Mostert as the primary back. He out-carried Edmonds 11-5, and I don’t foresee that suddenly changing, as Mostert was effectively running the ball.
Additionally, the Bills have been superb against the run. They’re allowing just 66 rushing yards per game. They shut down Derrick Henry in Week 2, holding him to just 25 yards on 13 carries. Unless Edmonds busts off a big run, he’s going to have a very difficult time exceeding this number.
I bet this at -110 on MGM. Currently, you can get under 33.5 at -110 on MGM. I would take the under as low as 32.5.
Garrett Wilson over 47.5 receiving yards (-110) 2 units
I will not bury the lede here. This is my most confident play of the season thus far and my first 2 unit recommendation.
Garrett Wilson is the Jets’ WR1. The sportsbooks and general population just haven’t recognized it yet. This is where the best value bets come from — recognizing shifts in player utilization before everyone else.
Wilson is still being out-snapped by Corey Davis and Elijah Moore. Yet, he leads the Jets with 22 targets and is averaging an impressive 2.17 yards per route run. He had 52 receiving yards in Week 1 and 102 in Week 2.
It’s only a matter of time before Wilson’s snap count matches his production. I think that time could be as soon as this week.
I bet this at -110 on MGM. Shortly after I bet it, the line inexplicably dropped to 43.5, so I doubled down. It’s now at 46.5 -120 on Draftkings. I’d be willing to bet this up to 52.5. Click here to bet on DraftKings.
Ja’Marr Chase over 77.5 receiving yards (-115)
After catching 10 of 16 targets for 129 yards in Week 1, Ja’Marr Chase had a lackluster Week 2 with just five receptions for 54 yards. Chase is too good to have back-to-back disappointing games. He’s seen a 28.4% target share on the season.
The Jets’ defensive numbers against the pass are pretty good, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into them. They held Lamar Jackson to 213 yards, but the Ravens just dominated that game throughout. Then, last week, they faced Jacoby Brissett. This is their first truly elite passing attack.
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The Bengals have yet to win a game. I think they take out their frustrations on the Jets. Chase is going over 100 in this one.
I bet this at -115 on DraftKings. Sometimes, pouncing early backfires. That happened here. The line is currently at 75.5 -115 on DraftKings. Obviously, I like this at 77.5. You all should end up with a better line than me.
Dalvin Cook over 2.5 receptions (-145)
Cook has yet to have a truly monster game. It’s coming. But even amidst his underwhelming performances, he’s still caught more than three passes in each of his first two games. His 14.7% target share, if it holds, would be his highest since 2019. In his career, Cook has caught at least three passes in a game 60% of the time.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said he needs to do a better job getting Cook involved. I think he does just that against the Lions. A great way to do that is to design passes for Cook. I like Cook to get a screen or two drawn up for him, as well as to catch a couple of check downs. I think Cook flies over this number.
The juice on this prop is high. I bet this early on DraftKings because I didn’t think the books would want to move it to 3.5. That is holding true as the vig is really high in some places. The best price is currently -160 on MGM. I would still take that, but I’d rather it just go to 3.5 at something closer to -110. You can get that on PointsBet at -115.
Michael Thomas’ longest reception under 20.5 yards (-110)
Taking New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas’ longest reception under is a weekly bet for me. Last week, Thomas’ longest reception was just 13 yards. Thomas has 521 career receptions. Just 68 of them (13%) have gone for over 20 yards. And 58 of those 68 were thrown to him by Drew Brees.
Throughout his career, Thomas hasn’t really had a legitimate WR2, especially since Brandin Cooks left. Now, he has Chris Olave and his 38% team air yards share. Thomas’ is just 23%. Thomas goes under this number far more than he doesn’t. We won’t win this every week, but we will win it more than we lose it.
I bet this at -110 on DraftKings. That line still exists. I don’t foresee it getting down to 19.5, but I’d bet it at that number as well.
Dameon Pierce over 58.5 rushing yards (-115)
After playing just 29% of the snaps in Week 1, Houston Texans head coach Lovie Smith committed to getting RB Dameon Pierce more involved in Week 2. True to his word, Pierce played 62% of the snaps and carried the ball 15 times for 69 yards. That was against the Broncos and their formidable run defense.
This week, Pierce gets a Chicago Bears run defense that’s allowed the most rushing yards this season. They were just eviscerated by Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon for nearly 200 yards on 33 carries. Pierce should have no trouble eclipsing this number. As a bonus, I like him to find the end zone, too. Pierce’s anytime touchdown prop is +170 on DraftKings.
I bet this at -115 on DraftKings. Currently, the best line is 60.5 -113 on FanDuel. I still like Pierce’s over at that number. I would bet this up to 61.5. Click here to bet on DraftKings.