The New York Giants shocked the NFL world by winning nine games and making the playoffs last season. But because team progression isn’t always linear, making NFL predictions for New York’s 2023 campaign have to be based in reality.
There’s a world in which next year’s Giants take another step forward and entrench themselves as a force to be reckoned with in the NFC. But there’s also a chance last season’s performance turns out to be something of a fluke. Let’s explore the best and worst-case scenarios for the Giants as we preview the 2023 NFL season.
Predicting the Best-Case Scenario for the New York Giants’ 2023 NFL Season
While the Giants were nearly forced to choose between Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley this offseason, a last-second contract extension for Jones allowed New York to deploy the franchise tag on Barkley and keep both of its offensive playmakers.
Jones’ new deal pays him $40 million annually, so the Giants will be expecting another leap in production after the former first-round pick posted the best season of his career in 2022. Jones ranked sixth in QBR, managed a league-low 1.1% interception rate, and thrived in the short areas of the field, ranking third in passer rating on throws between 0-9 yards.
But Jones was arguably even more impressive as a runner, as New York’s new offensive staff took advantage of their 6’5″, 221-pound QB’s size as part of their rushing attack. Jones put up a career-high 708 yards on the ground (fifth among all quarterbacks), scored seven touchdowns, and reduced his fumble count for the fourth straight year.
The Giants will likely keep using Jones’ prowess in the running game, even as his salary makes him more valuable. But a best-case scenario for New York involves Jones taking another step forward as a passer after the Giants added veteran tight end Darren Waller, former Colts receiver Parris Campbell, and third-round pick Jalin Hyatt to their offense.
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These new additions could help New York post a more explosive offense, instead of the dink-and-dunk unit they fielded in 2022. Meanwhile, the Giants have to hope they can get at least one more outstanding season out of Barkley, who will be heading into another contract year if he doesn’t agree to an extension.
Barkley posted a career-high in rushing yards last season (1,312) and generally looked like the running back we all remembered from Penn State and his rookie campaign. With the added motivation of a long-term deal on the horizon, Barkley will likely be called on for 300+ touches once again next year.
But the real opportunity for New York’s improvement comes on the defensive side of the ball. The Giants ranked 19th in points allowed per drive, 25th in yards allowed, 28th in expected points added per play, and 29th in defensive DVOA.
Luckily, Big Blue has several young, ascending defensive players who could break out next season. Kayvon Thibodeaux, the No. 5 pick in last year’s draft, is poised to make more of a contribution after managing four sacks in his rookie campaign. Fellow pass rusher Azeez Ojulari missed more than half of the 2022 campaign with a calf injury but still put up 5.5 sacks.
First-round cornerback Deonte Banks looks like an immediate starter for the Giants’ woeful secondary, while the club’s defensive backfield will also be aided by the full-time return of safety Xavier McKinney, who missed several games last season after getting hurt in an ATV accident. And New York finally has a competent linebacker in the second level after signing former Colt Bobby Okereke to a four-year, $40 million deal.
Given all these improvements, a best-case scenario for the Giants involves the Eagles and Cowboys both taking a step back and New York rising up to win the NFC East. While a Wild Card berth should be within the Giants’ reach, a division crown will certainly be more challenging — but it’s not totally out of the realm of possibility.
New York probably isn’t a Super Bowl contender at this point, but strong game-planning from Giants coordinators Mike Kafka and Wink Martindale — both of whom will return after garnering head-coaching interest — allowed them to advance to the Divisional Round last year. Depending on how the NFC shakes out, a title game appearance could be in the cards, but even the rosiest of projections likely has New York’s 2023 season ending there.
Predicting the Worst-Case Scenario for the Giants’ 2023 NFL Season
The worst-case scenario for the 2023 Giants revolves around one simple idea — that New York overpaid Jones, who might have already reached his NFL ceiling.
Of course, that’s far from a guarantee, but if we’re assessing what could go wrong for next year’s Giants, it starts with Jones. New York made it easy on Jones in 2022. He used play-action on 34% of his dropbacks, the second-most in the league behind only Tua Tagovailoa. Jones executed in the short game, but he struggled in the intermediate area and attempted just 23 passes of 20+ yards, 34th among quarterbacks.
While the Giants tried to augment Jones’ receiving corps, they now have several slot receivers who seem to do the same thing. Unless Hyatt can suddenly unlock Jones’ downfield ability, New York could be looking at another offense that relies on short passes and Jones’ rushing performance — and rival defenses might be able to figure out how to stop that type of attack.
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There are other concerns, too. The Giants’ offensive line, which ranked bottom seven in run-block and pass-block win rate in 2022, could fall apart again if right tackle Evan Neal doesn’t take a step forward or rookie center John Michael Schmitz struggles in his first NFL season. And while New York’s defense should be improved, there are still enough holes that it’s unlikely to become a top-10 unit overnight.
Even a slight regression on both sides of the ball could put the Giants back in the six-win range that they seemingly resided in for years. Alternatively, eight or nine victories might not be enough to claim a playoff spot in the NFC if other teams like the Packers, Bears, Falcons, Panthers, or Commanders make surprising plays at contention next season.