The New England Patriots nearly made the postseason in 2022, but a Week 18 loss to the Bills ensured that Bill Belichick and Co. would stay home throughout the playoffs. Thus far, New England’s post-Tom Brady era has been defined by stops and starts. Can the Patriots put it all together and make a run next season? Let’s run through New England’s best and worst-case scenarios as part of our 2023 NFL predictions.
Predicting the Best-Case Scenario for the New England Patriots’ 2023 NFL Season
The best-case scenario for the Patriots in 2023 involves a return to the postseason. For that to happen, New England’s offense needs to pull its weight because its defense is already playoff-caliber.
Last year, the Patriots’ defense ranked as a top-10 unit in yards allowed (eighth), yards per play (third), points per drive (third), turnovers (second), and expected points added per play (third). After re-signing Jonathan Jones and drafting Christian Gonzalez in the first round, there’s no reason why New England’s defense can’t be among the league’s best again next season.
For as good as the defense was, their offense went in the other direction. Under the direction of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, Mac Jones looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league after helping guide New England to the playoffs in his rookie campaign.
A rift reportedly developed between Jones and Belichick, and the Patriots may have put Jones — who was briefly benched for fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe — on the trade block this offseason. New England failed to bring in another quarterback over the past few months, leaving Jones as their presumptive starter for 2023.
The Patriots swapped out Jakobi Meyers and Jonnu Smith for JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki but otherwise stood pat with their offensive personnel. Their most significant addition was Bill O’Brien, who is back as New England’s play-caller after a decade-plus hiatus and hopes to turn Jones’ career around.
“Fresh start,” O’Brien said in April. “It’s really not anything about what’s gone on in the past. That’s one of our themes on offense — to move forward.”
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If O’Brien can help Jones look more like the 2021 version of himself, there’s no reason the Patriots can’t go back to the playoffs. New England finished ninth in offensive DVOA that season — with a solid offensive line and further growth from running back Rhamondre Stevenson, the Pats could rebound into that range.
But where is New England’s ceiling? They’re probably the fourth-best team in the AFC East, and even an optimistic outlook wouldn’t place them above the Bills. Conference-wide, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots competing with AFC clubs that boast elite quarterbacks like the Chiefs and Bengals.
If everything breaks right and Jones returns to form, the Patriots could enter the playoffs as a Wild Card team and potentially advance to the Divisional Round. But unless the physically limited Jones takes a massive leap forward, that’s likely the ceiling in New England.
Predicting the Worst-Case Scenario for the New England Patriots’ 2023 NFL Season
It seems odd to say Belichick could be coaching for his job in 2023, but it’s difficult to get any other impression after reading the tea leaves coming out of New England.
“In the end, this is a business,” Patriots owner Robert Kraft said in March. “You either execute and win, or you don’t. That’s where we’re at.”
Statements of that nature led Ben Volin of the Boston Globe to suggest that Belichick could be on the hot seat. Meanwhile, The Athletic’s Jeff Howe said in April, “It’s felt for a while now Belichick would need to do enough next season for Kraft to give him a shot to chase” Don Shula’s NFL wins record.
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In January, the Patriots released a very un-Belichickean statement that indicated they’d be interviewing offensive coordinator candidates and were attempting to work out a contract extension with linebackers coach Jerod Mayo, who had drawn head coaching interest around the league. Kraft might have driven that statement, and it could indicate that Mayo is ownership’s preferred Belichick successor.
Could the Patriots struggle enough in 2023 that Belichick is fired (or is forced into retirement)? It depends on Kraft’s expectations for next season.
It seems nearly inconceivable that New England could ever bottom out under Belichick. The Patriots have too much talent and too great of a coaching edge to end up with a top-five pick in next year’s draft.
But another season below .500 and a fifth consecutive year without a playoff victory is certainly within the range of New England’s worst-case scenario. If Jones struggles and the Patriots end up in seven-to-nine-win purgatory, they likely wouldn’t have many avenues to pursue a quarterback upgrade.
In that scenario, Kraft could feasibly decide to blow everything up and start fresh. The Patriots haven’t played a game without Belichick roaming the sidelines in nearly a quarter-century. But without a step in the right direction in 2023, a new head coach might be on the table.