The byes are behind us. Every week going forward will have the full complement of games. And there are some intriguing ones this week with big-time playoff implications. We break them all down in our NFL Week 15 Picks and Predictions.
All lines are as of Wednesday and courtesy of Caesars.
NFL Predictions: Lock of the Week
Betting line
Patriots -1; Patriots -120, Raiders +100; O/U 44.5
The Las Vegas Raiders’ winning streak ended at three games in Week 14, but their streak of one-score games was extended to six. In other words: There’s no reason to believe this week will be any different.
Ten of the Raiders’ first 13 games have been decided by seven or fewer points.
The New England Patriots have been a bit more boom-or-bust, with just five of their 13 games ending up with a margin of a touchdown or less. But unlike the Raiders, the Patriots have taken care of business against the bad teams.
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Their strength of victory (.423) is the second-lowest among the teams currently in the AFC playoff field. The Raiders’ five wins, however, have come against teams with a winning percentage of .331 entering Week 15.
Then there’s the eye test. Most recently, Derek Carr was awful in an inexcusable loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Mac Jones was mostly solid in a romp vs. the Arizona Cardinals.
Adam Beasley: Patriots 25, Raiders 19
Dalton Miller: Patriots 26, Raiders 17
Dallas Robinson: Patriots 23, Raiders 21
NFL Predictions: Upset of the Week
Betting line
Browns -3; Browns -160, Ravens +135; O/U 38.5
The Baltimore Ravens in Week 14 were so nice we’re gonna try them twice. Baltimore came through as PFN’s Lock of the Week vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers, so we’re going to ride them again in Week 15 when they face another of the AFC North’s dregs.
Yes, the Ravens might be down to third-string quarterback Anthony Brown against Cleveland, but with the way Deshaun Watson has played since his return, that won’t be some clear advantage at the position for the Cleveland Browns.
In the two games since his suspension ended, Watson has completed just 59.4% of his passes with one touchdown, two interceptions, an adjusted yards per attempt average of 5.3, and a QBR of 48.3.
The Browns’ dropback EPA per play during that stretch (-.219) ranks 29th — six spots below the Ravens (-.112), who have been far from full strength.
Plus, the strength the Browns do have on offense — running the ball — the Ravens do better. Baltimore averages 162.5 yards per game. Cleveland averages 149.5.
Adam Beasley: Ravens 19, Browns 18
Dalton Miller: Browns 17, Ravens 16
Dallas Robinson: Ravens 23, Browns 21
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Betting line
49ers -3; 49ers -190, Seahawks +158; O/U 43.5
The Seattle Seahawks need a win against the San Francisco 49ers to keep pace in the NFC. They’re currently a half-game out of the seventh seed in the Wild Card hunt and two games behind San Francisco in the division.
Seattle’s defense has gone through three distinct phases this season, from bad to good and back to bad again. Meanwhile, their passing attack remains efficient, but the team is asking a lot of an offense that’s struggling to run the football.
Meanwhile, the 49ers feel like arguably the best football team in the NFL, despite fielding the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft at quarterback. It’s far too early to know for sure whether Brock Purdy can sustain this level of play. But he is playing well now, and the offense is certainly different from how it looked when Jimmy Garoppolo was under center.
— Dalton Miller
Adam Beasley: 49ers 25, Seahawks 18
Dalton Miller: 49ers 26, Seahawks 20
Dallas Robinson: 49ers 29, Seahawks 20
Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings
Betting line
Vikings -4; Vikings -210, Colts +175; O/U 48.5
The Minnesota Vikings have fallen a little out of favor with neutral fans after their loss to the Detroit Lions, but they’re still fundamentally a good team and will be playing an Indianapolis Colts squad that is out of the honeymoon period with their new head coach.
The Vikings’ defense might be struggling, but it’s struggling a good deal less than the Colts’ offense, which cannot get Matt Ryan to make plays on a consistent basis and still can’t keep the offensive line all on one page.
The Vikings will still have to mind their P’s and Q’s against Jonathan Taylor in the run game, but without the rest of the offense supporting him, they’ll at least be able to stem the tide. On the other side of the ball, the Colts’ secondary won’t be able to keep up with Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins, the latter of whom seems to have turned the corner and is playing more consistent ball.
Given their dynamic passing offense, the Vikings should have the advantage. Then again, if the defense plays like a sieve once more, Cousins might have trouble keeping up.
— Arif Hasan
Adam Beasley: Vikings 27, Colts 24
Dalton Miller: Vikings 23, Colts 17
Dallas Robinson: Vikings 25, Colts 16
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Betting line
Bills -7.5; Bills -355, Dolphins +278; O/U 42
These are the bad times for the Miami Dolphins. They’ve lost five games this year, but the first three were understandable. They came with Tua Tagovailoa on the shelf.
Their last two losses — in Weeks 13 and 14 have been more or less at full strength. The 49ers and the Los Angeles Chargers both shut down Tua and the high-powered Dolphins passing attack by taking away the intermediate and deep middle and daring Tagovailoa to throw to the sidelines.
He more or less refused. That has to change. But it probably won’t this week. The Buffalo Bills rank seventh in defensive passer rating (81.7) and have allowed a total of 70 points during their current four-game winning streak.
Plus, you can’t overstate the impact of the weather. The forecast calls for 28 degrees and snow at kickoff — which has been Kryptonite for the Hawaiian Tagovailoa. Tua, in his two late December/early January cold weather road starts, has completed just 55.2% of his attempts with a 5.9 yards per attempt average and a passer rating of 58.8.
The Dolphins lost both of those games by a combined 61 points.
— Adam H. Beasley
Adam Beasley: Bills 24, Dolphins 19
Dalton Miller: Bills 30, Dolphins 27
Dallas Robinson: Bills 28, Dolphins 25
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears
Betting line
Eagles -9; Eagles -430, Bears +328; O/U 48.5
The Philadelphia Eagles showed us in Week 14 that they’re the team to beat in the entire league. They can beat you with an aerial attack or run it 40 times at a level no other NFL team can match. Their offensive line is the best in the league, and they boast a dual-threat quarterback playing fantastic football with a solid group of receiving talent. And their pass defense has been outstanding this season.
But the Chicago Bears can exploit the one weakness Philadelphia has – its run defense. The Bears’ rushing efficiency ranks third in EPA, and they have arguably the most dangerous ground weapon in the NFL in Justin Fields, who holds by far the highest rushing EPA among any player with 50 carries.
However, the Bears didn’t seem keen on running their injured QB against the Green Bay Packers, so we may not see much more electricity from Fields on the ground until 2023.
— Dalton Miller
Adam Beasley: Eagles 32, Bears 16
Dalton Miller: Eagles 31, Bears 24
Dallas Robinson: Eagles 33, Bears 21
Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets
Betting line
Lions -110, Jets -110; O/U 44.5
The New York Jets and the Detroit Lions are both playing with fire when it comes to “sustainable” play, but the Lions at least seem to be having a genuine turnaround, with an offense and defense schematically different than in the first six weeks of the season.
Jared Goff is playing almost as well as he did in 2018, and the defense is getting more out of its youngest players.
With a now-healthy Jeff Okudah, we should get to see an exciting matchup that pairs him against Garrett Wilson, but the bigger question will be whether Mike White (or, recently declared No. 2, Zach Wilson) can get him the ball in the first place, especially with Aidan Hutchinson bearing down against an injured offensive line.
Still, the Lions will decide the contest more with their own offense’s approach to the Jets’ incredible defense.
It will be strength on strength, as Sauce Gardner matches up well with all of the Lions’ receiving weapons, even with Jameson Williams completely involved with the offense.
The deep and effective pass rush, even without Quinnen Williams, will be up against a high-level offensive line, and D.J. Reed will have his hands full with whichever receiver Gardner doesn’t lock down.
— Arif Hasan
Adam Beasley: Jets 24, Lions 20
Dalton Miller: Lions 27, Jets 20
Dallas Robinson: Jets 24, Lions 21
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Betting line
Saints -4; Saints -210, Falcons +175; O/U 43
The future in Atlanta is now.
Marcus Mariota isn’t interested in whatever is happening with the Falcons after being benched for third-round rookie Desmond Ridder, but Falcons fans are excited about Ridder after seeing flashes during the preseason.
With how Mariota has played recently, Arthur Smith didn’t have much of a choice, and the bye week came at the perfect time.
The New Orleans Saints have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL this season. Some weeks they look offensively incompetent, and the next week Andy Dalton and the Saints’ offense go insane. But overall, the Atlanta Falcons have been the better team this season, mostly because of a consistently good rushing attack.
Even at 4-9, the Saints are somehow still in the NFC South playoff hunt, as are the Falcons at 5-8. Atlanta needs to win this game to crawl back toward 0.500 in its own division for tiebreaking purposes.
— Dalton Miller
Adam Beasley: Saints 24, Falcons 17
Dalton Miller: Falcons 23, Saints 20
Dallas Robinson: Saints 23, Falcons 18
Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Betting line
Cowboys -4.5; Cowboys -225, Jaguars +182; O/U 47.5
The Dallas Cowboys’ hot streak since Dak Prescott’s return is feeling a bit fraudulent heading into Week 15. They’ve played just one good quarter in their past eight. A clean win against a surging Jacksonville Jaguars team could be exactly what the doctor ordered.
The Cowboys’ passing attack has always put a lot on Dak Prescott’s plate. That has continued in 2022. However, the addition of T.Y. Hilton could help because Dallas lacks speed on the outside to threaten safeties vertically.
Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence is starting to play at a high level with consistency, the one thing he’d lacked previously. He’s been nearly flawless over his past six weeks, avoiding interceptions in each of his last five games. He’ll need to continue his high level of play if he wants to keep that part of his ledger clean against an aggressive Cowboys defense.
— Dalton Miller
Adam Beasley: Cowboys 26, Jaguars 21
Dalton Miller: Cowboys 33, Jaguars 20
Dallas Robinson: Cowboys 30, Jaguars 20
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
Betting line
Chiefs -14; Chiefs -900, Texans +600; O/U 49
Had the Dallas Cowboys covered last week, we might have been able to see the Kansas City Chiefs enter this game with the biggest spread of the season.
But the Houston Texans’ somewhat innovative approach of using two quarterbacks and supplementing that with another great Dameon Pierce performance ensured that the Chiefs wouldn’t be three-score favorites. Nevertheless, it remains the case that one team has Patrick Mahomes, and the other does not.
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The Texans are getting great moments out of their rookie class and might see the return of CB Derek Stingley, though he has yet to return to practice. But players like Jalen Pitre, Stingley, and Pierce, though talented, aren’t consistent quite yet. On the other hand, the Chiefs’ only inconsistency is which receiver or running back is going to go off that week.
The Chiefs pose a bad matchup for almost any team in the NFL, and they present a particularly bad matchup for the Texans, whose offensive line struggles along the interior and whose corners cannot keep up with Kansas City’s receivers. On top of that, Travis Kelce brings his own set of problems that will be impossible to solve.
— Arif Hasan
Adam Beasley: Chiefs 30, Texans 20
Dalton Miller: Chiefs 28, Texans 13
Dallas Robinson: Chiefs 35, Texans 13
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers
Betting line
Panthers -2.5; Panthers -140, Steelers +118; O/U 38.5
Kenny Pickett has been getting better every week, but so has, against all odds, Sam Darnold. The Carolina Panthers have been getting surprisingly good quarterback play from Darnold, and that might be all they need to leverage the rest of their roster’s advantages over the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have been struggling almost everywhere.
With more flashiness than reliability from George Pickens and uneven performances from their running backs (though the fault of the latter admittedly falls on a bad offensive line), the Steelers are essentially hoping that Pickett can do just enough on offense so that T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick can clean up on defense.
That’s certainly doable, and the Steelers have demonstrated that this can be enough. But the developing offense in Carolina and the return to form of their defense will make that a very tough ask this week.
— Arif Hasan
Adam Beasley: Panthers 22, Steelers 17
Dalton Miller: Panthers 24, Steelers 18
Dallas Robinson: Panthers 22, Steelers 16
Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos
Betting line
Broncos -3; Broncos -150, Cardinals +126; O/U 36.5
Heading into the season, a Week 15 game between the Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos may have been viewed as a matchup between two playoff contenders. Instead, it’s turned into the All-Disappointment Bowl.
The 4-9 Cardinals are tied for last place in the NFC West and just lost quarterback Kyler Murray to a torn ACL on Monday night. Murray’s injury puts a wrap on a lackluster season in which he finished just 21st in QBR and probably eradicates any possibility that head coach Kliff Kingsbury can save his job over the rest of the season.
Things aren’t going much better in Denver. Russell Wilson has been one of the worst signal-callers in the league since the Broncos traded for and extended the 34-year-old, and he may not even play on Sunday after suffering a concussion in Week 15. Brett Rypien vs. Colt McCoy isn’t what we had in mind for this game, but it’s what we’re getting.
— Dallas Robinson
Adam Beasley: Broncos 23, Cardinals 13
Dalton Miller: Broncos 16, Cardinals 15
Dallas Robinson: Cardinals 20, Broncos 14
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Betting line
Bengals -3.5; Bengals -195, Buccaneers +162; O/U 44
While the Cincinnati Bengals’ end-of-season schedule looked incredibly difficult, they’re still rolling entering Week 15. Cincinnati is on a five-game win streak, the second-longest in the NFL behind the 49ers, and is proving to be one of the most well-rounded teams in the league.
Joe Burrow has forced himself into the MVP conversation, while the Bengals’ defense has shut down Derrick Henry, Patrick Mahomes, and Nick Chubb over the past three weeks.
With Lamar Jackson still sidelined for the Ravens, each week presents a new opportunity for the Bengals to reclaim the AFC North lead. And because they’ve already beaten the Chiefs and are yet to play the Bills, they still have an outside chance to capture the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are fighting for their playoff lives after getting shellacked by San Francisco last Sunday. Had Tom Brady not pulled out two miracle wins over the Los Angeles Rams (Week 9) and New Orleans Saints (Week 13), Tampa Bay wouldn’t even be in the postseason picture.
The Bucs wrap up the season by playing the Cardinals, Panthers, and Falcons, so they still have a relatively easy path to the playoffs. But they’re not in the same league as the Bengals, even in a home game.
— Dallas Robinson
Adam Beasley: Bengals 25, Buccaneers 20
Dalton Miller: Bengals 28, Buccaneers 20
Dallas Robinson: Bengals 27, Buccaneers 20
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Betting line
Chargers -3; Chargers -155, Titans +130; O/U 47
The Tennessee Titans would have to get very unlucky to lose the AFC South to the Jacksonville Jaguars at this point, but their three-game losing streak has exposed every potential problem area on the roster.
Tennessee was outscored 91-38 against the Bengals, Eagles, and Jaguars and allowed each of those opponents to put up at least 370 yards of offense.
Given that they’re so reliant on Derrick Henry, the Titans will hope to get their rushing attack going against the Los Angeles Chargers, who still have one of the NFL’s worst run defenses.
Henry posted 101 yards in the first quarter against Jacksonville on Sunday but was held in check for the rest of the game, while Cincinnati and Philadelphia completely stifled him. With rookie receiver Treylon Burks still in the concussion protocol, Tennessee doesn’t have many aerial threats.
The Chargers forced themselves back into the playoff conversation against the Dolphins on Sunday night, and the return of wideout Mike Williams (6-116-1) was especially important for Justin Herbert. With Williams, Keenan Allen, and Joshua Palmer all healthy for the first time in months, expect Los Angeles to feast on Tennessee’s dilapidated secondary, which has posted the second-worst pass defense DVOA in the NFL over the past month.
— Dallas Robinson
Adam Beasley: Titans 25, Chargers 21
Dalton Miller: Chargers 23, Titans 21
Dallas Robinson: Chargers 26, Titans 15
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders
Betting line
Commanders -4.5; Commanders -220, Giants +180; O/U 40.5
This one is (essentially) for all the marbles. The New York Giants and Washington Commanders have been surprising playoff contenders this season, and whichever team wins this game – which has been flexed to Sunday Night Football – will see their postseason odds jump to around 90%.
Of course, Washington and New York played just two weeks ago in a game that ended in a 20-20 tie. Despite that result, the Commanders are playing much better football, and they’ll benefit from a home game this time around.
Taylor Heinicke attempted a season-high 41 passes against the Giants in Week 13, but Washington will likely want to reduce that number and get the ball into running back Brian Robinson Jr.’s hands.
Meanwhile, the Giants have wrapped three losses around their tie with the Commanders. Admittedly, those defeats came at the hands of two of the NFL’s best teams (Cowboys and Eagles) and perhaps the hottest team in the league (Lions).
Still, New York has started to turn back into a pumpkin. If Brian Daboll can’t orchestrate some more magic on Sunday, Washington will likely take this game and New York’s playoff hopes.
— Dallas Robinson
Adam Beasley: Commanders 24, Giants 16
Dalton Miller: Commanders 23, Giants 20
Dallas Robinson: Commanders 24, Giants 17
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
Betting line
Packers -7; Packers -320, Rams +250; O/U 39.5
The Baker Mayfield Experience hasn’t always been pretty, but it’s always been entertaining. That was certainly the case in Week 14 when Mayfield basically went from the airport to SoFi Stadium and played 61 of a possible 64 snaps against the Las Vegas Raiders.
That alone would have been impressive enough. But directing two touchdown drives in the final 13 minutes — including the game-winning eight-play, 98-yarder in just 1:35 — is the stuff of legends.
We can all thank Mayfield’s arrival in L.A. for making three straight nationally televised games watchable.
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But our sense is that reality will splash some cold water this week. The Packers have had 15 days to prepare for this one, and during their time off, the NFC Wild Card field has come back to them a bit. They’re still roughly 1 in 20 to get in — and there’s no scenario that doesn’t include the Packers winning out.
But that might be enough. Four of the six other teams in contention for three spots (including the NFC South crown, which obviously doesn’t apply to Green Bay) — the Giants, Commanders, Lions, Seahawks, Panthers, and Buccaneers — will almost certainly finish with at least eight losses.
— Adam H. Beasley
Adam Beasley: Packers 23, Rams 17
Dalton Miller: Packers 20, Rams 14
Dallas Robinson: Packers 26, Rams 15
Season Standings Through 14 Weeks
Adam Beasley: 123-83-2 straight up, 95-106-7 against the spread
Dalton Miller: 121-85-2, 88-113-7
Dallas Robinson: 135-71-2, 97-104-7