Coming off their second Super Bowl win and third appearance in the last four NFL seasons, we’re in the midst of a potential run from the Kansas City Chiefs. Head coach Andy Reid has won 72% of his 162 regular-season games since joining the Chiefs, with 80 of his 117 wins coming with Patrick Mahomes under center. It’s safe to say Kansas City is chasing history.
With that in mind, we dive into what the best and worst-case scenarios are for the Chiefs in 2023.
Predicting the Best-Case Scenario for the Kansas City Chiefs’ 2023 NFL Season
Coming off a season with 14 wins, a Lombardi Trophy, and the NFL’s No. 1 ranked offense with arguably the best player in NFL history, the sky is the limit for the Chiefs. Kansas City doesn’t have a perfect roster and is far from it. But they have an all-time coach in Reid, an elite defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo, and Mahomes.
MORE: Is Patrick Mahomes No. 1 in the 2023 QB Power Rankings?
Kansas City’s win total at DraftKings Sportsbook is 11.5, and they’re +600 to win the Super Bowl. Though the Chiefs have the 13th-easiest schedule in the league, the AFC West could be even more fierce if the Denver Broncos prove more formidable than they were last year. There’s a ton of competition in the loaded AFC.
KC’s Young Receivers Step Up
Despite boasting Mahomes and Travis Kelce as two future Hall of Famers, plus Reid as arguably the best offensive coach in the NFL, the Chiefs’ biggest roster weakness entering the season is at wide receiver. Both Mahomes and Reid haven’t been concerned with the lack of proven playmaking, with the team in no rush to push for a DeAndre Hopkins signing.
Reid said he’ll wait for training camp to have firmer opinions about the “young guys who are mixing in” but likes the number of competitors available right now. Mahomes lauded the group for being “deep” and offering a skill set for any situation the team needs.
On paper, both are right. Of the Chiefs’ top six receivers, only Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson are older than 24 years old. The young quartet of Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Justyn Ross, and Rashee Rice have major opportunities in front of them.
If Reid is right that “They’re wired the right way” to succeed, and the team doesn’t need to add a veteran, then KC’s passing offense can again rely on spreading the ball to speedy playmakers who are matchup weapons.
The Young Chiefs’ Pass Rush Gets Scarier
The Chiefs’ defense in 2022 was quite good despite ranking 16th in points allowed and dead last in passing touchdowns allowed. Because of their explosive offense, teams played from behind and found some success with a high volume of plays. However, the Chiefs were 11th in yards allowed, 18th in passing yards, and possessed a strong unit at slowing the run game.
There are areas, though, where this unit can get even better. Kansas City ranked 21st in turnover rate, and no pass rusher besides Chris Jones totaled more than six sacks. The addition of veteran edge rusher Charles Omenihu and first-rounder Felix Anudike-Uzomah can help bring out the best of 2021 first-rounder George Karlaftis and the young secondary.
Kansas City gave an ineffective Frank Clark 62% of defensive snaps last year. By giving hungrier, more explosive athletes more opportunities, we could see the Chiefs’ defense go to the next level in 2023.
Predicting the Worst-Case Scenario for the Chiefs’ 2023 NFL Season
Any result that doesn’t include winning the Super Bowl is a worst-case scenario for the Chiefs. Mahomes is on a pathway to one of the greatest, most prolific careers in NFL history, and he could start passing Len Dawson’s franchise career marks as early as this season.
For example, Mahomes needs only 4,267 yards to become the franchise leader in passing yards.
Chiefs’ Receiving Corps Becomes a Liability
The most obvious area of concern for the Chiefs is the receiving corps. With a lack of cap space that would only be helped by an extension for Jones, landing Hopkins could prove difficult. The internal hope around Moore and Toney could be more bred of desperation than it is substantive reason to believe either can be more than a rotational producer.
Everyone seems to be guessing who will prove to be impactful within the team’s receiver room.
NFL Network’s Peter Schrager even boldly guessed that Justyn Ross will be one of the top five breakout receivers in all of the NFL in 2023, alongside three 2022 first-round picks and a second-round selection.
MORE: Kansas City Chiefs 2023 Schedule
Ross didn’t play a single snap last year due to a foot injury, and he went undrafted due to injury issues at Clemson. While he’s a feel-good story in OTA videos, Ross simply hasn’t looked like the first-round pick many had hoped he’d become in his freshman season.
Taking fliers on John Ross, Richie James, and even Justyn Ross makes sense. None of them are bad players, but the prospect of giving them a bigger workload than a rotational role can expose the talent deficiency on the unit.
Everything revolves around Kelce, but he’s turning 34 this fall. Kansas City must find contributors who are ready to step up in a more traditional hierarchy.
Chris Jones Carries Too Much Defensive Responsibility
Jones wants a new contract, and understandably so, considering he wracked up 15.5 sacks in 2022. He could’ve won Defensive Player of the Year last season because of his dominance, and the prospect of him being out of the lineup would completely change how the defense works. The Chiefs will surely pay Jones, but losing him for any amount of time can expose their reliance on him.
The lack of star power on KC’s defense can be exposed without their main cog. Even as great as the offense has been, the Chiefs’ defense has been critical in each of their massive wins over the last five years.
With superstars like Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and many others set to battle the Chiefs, Kansas City has to be prepared for an alternative plan in case the 29-year-old suffers any drop-off in 2023.
