Despite a hellaciously tough division, the Buffalo Bills are such a talented team that they’re among the favorites to win the Super Bowl, ranked fourth in the most recent odds posted following the NFL Draft. NFL predictions are notoriously tough, however. There is a wide range of outcomes between the Bills’ best and worst-case scenarios for the 2023 season.
The Bills have the potential for an elite offense and a high-level defense but still haven’t bucked their Super Bowl curse. With an MVP talent in Josh Allen, they’ve fallen short in the playoffs without winning an AFC Championship Game, and they’ve made mistakes in key moments, whether it’s a fumble inside their own end zone, a blown coverage at the end of the game, or a poorly timed interception. But if it all comes together, the Bills could win their first Super Bowl in franchise history.
Predicting the Best-Case Scenario for the Buffalo Bills’ 2023 Season
For the Bills, a good chunk of “the best-case scenario” comes from some of the biggest uncertainties in the division swinging in their direction. They would benefit from the Patriots seeing no change in their offense after moving on from Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as offensive coordinators in favor of Bill O’Brien, keeping Mac Jones as a liability rather than an asset.
On top of that, it would help if the New York Jets saw last year’s Aaron Rodgers instead of the Hall of Famer they paid for. As for the Dolphins, they’ll have to hope that Tua Tagovailoa is a one-year wonder. This isn’t out of the realm of possibility, either — Nick Foles, Josh McCown, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Case Keenum have all had one-off excellent seasons, especially in a new offensive system.
All of that would help Buffalo get to the playoffs, but it wouldn’t help them once they’re there. For that, they would need to see development on offense with their young players, such as second-year receiver Khalil Shakir and rookie Justin Shorter.
If O’Cyrus Torrence slots into a starting guard spot immediately, they’ll have a more consistent offense. And if Dalton Kincaid can get going right away, they’ll have a diverse, matchup-friendly offense, forcing defenses to pick their poison.
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What might especially help on offense is the combination of Damien Harris and James Cook turning into a true running back committee that can establish a ground attack that doesn’t need Allen in order to be successful. All of that, together with another high-level season from Allen, should mean an offense that can compete with anybody, especially without the nagging shoulder injury Allen suffered for a good portion of last season.
The Bills were such an appealing Super Bowl favorite last year, however, because of their defense. They still finished with a high-level defense, but without Von Miller healthy in the final stretch of the season, they couldn’t get much accomplished.
Now, having lost Tremaine Edmunds to the Chicago Bears in free agency, it looks more likely that they’ll take a step back instead of a step forward. But additions like Poona Ford and Dorian Williams to the front seven might mean that they can deal with that loss.
On top of that, a healthy core in the secondary of Tre’Davious White, Kaiir Elam, Taron Johnson, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer can be truly astounding.
In the best-case scenario, the Bills play healthy and as they have for most of the past few years, while their divisional opponents’ key players also play as they have over the past two years. That should mean a 14-win season, a first-round bye, and an inside track to the Super Bowl.
Predicting the Worst-Case Scenario for the Buffalo Bills’ 2023 Season
In the worst-case scenario, the Bills’ key players sustain injury once more, with White and Miller out of the picture. That would be paired with slow development from Williams at linebacker and Elam at cornerback and aging issues with both back-end safeties.
If they don’t see further development on offense from their receivers and running backs, they may be a singularly one-dimensional offense, overly reliant on throws to Stefon Diggs and unscripted plays from Josh Allen. Both are elite players, but it’s tough if they don’t get any support.
Tight ends notoriously take time to get online, so relying on Kincaid to immediately take over and displace Dawson Knox might be asking too much. And while Allen is famously durable, it doesn’t take much to lose that title.
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If the Jets were right in their estimation that they were a fully stocked roster, one QB away, and that Rodgers could reach the heights of his play not too long ago, they’d be a difficult divisional opponent to tangle with. A healthy Tagovailoa and a resurgent New England could all present problems and steal wins here or there.
It’s entirely possible that the Bills split all of their games with their divisional opponents and stumble against the Chiefs, Eagles, and Bengals, all of which would be road matchups. That would mean a six-loss season, and with a mistake here or there with a team punching above its weight like the Cowboys or Jaguars, Buffalo could be a nine-win team struggling for a playoff spot.
While not technically the worst possible outcome, it’s one of the most disappointing possibilities — an injury-fueled, mistake-riddled season ending in a first-round exit.