The Giants' Week 17 win over the Colts proved costly, as they will now pick No. 3 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft instead of No. 1 overall.
Now, the Giants have to hope that either the Titans (No. 1) or Browns (No. 2) don't select a quarterback since this is widely regarded as a two-QB class with Colorado's Shedeur Sanders and Miami's Cam Ward.
Giants head coach Brian Daboll is now 18-32-1 in three seasons with New York. A surprising first season led to a 9-7-1 record, playoff appearance, and Wild Card round win over the Vikings. He was also the 2022 AP NFL Coach of the Year. However, after a three-win campaign, his seat is certainly warm. It remains to be seen if Daboll and/or general manager Joe Schoen will be fired.
Did the Bills just execute a diabolical plan, throwing Week 18 to ensure that the Patriots didn't land the No. 1 overall pick? After defeating Buffalo 23-16 on Sunday, New England will now pick No. 4 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Patriots have their quarterback of the future in Drake Maye, but they need to find a new head coach to lead him after Jerod Mayo was let go on Sunday afternoon.
This season, New England ranked 29th in third down conversion rate (34.9%) and 30th in red zone efficiency (46.8%), and Mayo received a ton of criticism for his decisions. Now, there are rumblings that three-time Super Bowl champion Mike Vrabel may take over.
The Titans did what the Giants, Patriots, Raiders, and Jaguars couldn't: they successfully tanked and earned the No. 1 overall pick with their loss against the Texans in Week 18.
With the No. 1 overall pick, Tennessee can either draft their quarterback of the future to replace Will Levis or go with a superstar talent like Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter.
All eyes will be on the Titans to see who they select when the first round gets underway on April 24 in Green Bay.
After Jameis Winston had a trio of three-interception games (and 12 picks total), the Browns decided to bench him. Well, Bailey Zappe and Dorian Thompson-Robinson weren't any better, and Cleveland was blown out by Baltimore in Week 18.
Deshaun Watson recently restructured his contract, suggesting he'll be back next year. However, he's only played 19 games over the last three seasons, and he's been dreadful when he was on the field (ranking dead last in PFN's QB+ metric). It's hard to imagine Watson will be better after suffering a ruptured Achilles.
Cleveland will hold the No. 2 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, so they will have an opportunity to land a potential franchise-changing talent.
Entering this season, Jaguars owner Shad Khan described this as "the best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars ever" after making some key offseason additions (Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, Arik Armstead, etc.) and signing Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million deal that made him one of the NFL's highest-paid quarterbacks.
Obviously, with a 4-13 record, this team didn't live up to the hype. Doug Pederson is now 22-28 in his three seasons with the Jaguars. After a strong start, things have soured for Pederson in Jacksonville (just like they did in Philadelphia), and the Jaguars aren't showing signs of improvement, so he might be let go in the coming days.
The Jaguars will hold the No. 5 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Saints put up an excellent fight against the Buccaneers in Week 18 and for the first half, it looked like they might pull off the upset. However, Tampa Bay managed to bounce back in the second half and earn the win.
Still, considering New Orleans was playing without QB Derek Carr, RB Alvin Kamara, WR Chris Olave, WR Rashid Shaheed, TE Taysom Hill, and RB Kendre Miller, it's a miracle they managed to put up 19 points and keep this game interesting.
New Orleans will have the No. 9 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and it will be an interesting offseason for the Saints considering the salary-cap predicament they're in.
The Raiders infuriated their fans by winning two games down the stretch, dropping from the No. 1 overall pick to the No. 6 selection.
Antonio Pierce is now 9-17 in parts of two seasons with Las Vegas, including 4-13 this year. During his two seasons, Las Vegas ranked 29th in red zone offense and defense, a combination that caps the team's ceiling. With a 5-4 finish as interim head coach in 2023, Pierce was brought back by popular demand. His terrible 2024 season has not yielded the same confidence, with many players gone or wanting out. It's possible his days in Vegas are numbered.
The Panthers earned an impressive 44-38 overtime win over the Falcons in Week 18, and Bryce Young couldn't have played better. The former No. 1 overall pick threw for 251 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions while also rushing for two scores.
This was a statement game for Young, who was determined to prove that Carolina should give him another year as the team's starting quarterback. While this win hurt the Panthers' draft pick, it's a great confidence booster for Young and this young squad.
Carolina now holds the No. 8 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
After winning four of five games (including quality victories over the Buccaneers and Commanders) and potentially saving head coach Mike McCarthy's job, the Cowboys came back down to Earth and dropped their final two contests against Philadelphia and Washington.
While Jerry Jones has made some positive comments about McCarthy recently, it remains to be seen if he will be back next season. It's worth noting that McCarthy's contract is expiring, so he won't have to be fired — Dallas could simply choose not to renew his deal.
After the Colts choked away their season down the stretch, head coach Shane Steichen received a ton of criticism, and deservedly so.
There is talk about a poor culture and lack of accountability under Steichen, but Colts owner Jim Irsay announced on Sunday evening that both Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard would be back in 2025.
Regardless, this will be an interesting offseason for Indianapolis. The Colts failed to crack the top-20 on offense, defense, or special teams in PFN's metrics, so big changes may be coming to the roster.
From acquiring four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, three-time All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams, and All-Pro pass rusher Haason Reddick to parting ways with head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas midseason, the Jets have made aggressive moves in hopes of making the playoffs and turning around this franchise.
However, New York missed the playoffs for the 14th straight season. Considering the Jets entered the campaign with Super Bowl aspirations, this year was a huge disappointment. Remember, this was a team that won seven games last year despite starting Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle at quarterback.
This will be an interesting offseason for the Jets, as it seems likely that Rodgers' and Adams' days with the team are numbered, and there are rumblings that Garrett Wilson might request a trade.
The Bears finally ended their 10-game winning streak in Week 18, defeating the Packers 24-22. It was a nice win to end the season, and the trick-play punt return touchdown was great. Now, Chicago's brass will shift their attention to finding a new head coach and, hopefully, improving the offensive line.
While this season didn't go as planned for the Bears, No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams had flashes of brilliance throughout his rookie campaign, and the hope is that Williams can make huge strides during his sophomore season (especially with some better protection and a new play-caller).
At one point earlier this season, the Falcons were 6-3 and in the driver's seat in the NFC South. The Buccaneers had lost four straight games and several key players to injuries while the Falcons were rolling. Now, Atlanta will watch the playoffs from home.
While the Falcons certainly improved after Michael Penix Jr. took over at quarterback, the team couldn't overcome a brutal stretch by Kirk Cousins and the defense's struggles to sneak into the postseason.
Even if the Saints managed to upset the Bucs in Week 18, the Falcons couldn't take care of business against the Panthers, letting Bryce Young throw for 251 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions while also rushing for two scores.
Entering Week 18, the Dolphins needed a win over the Jets and a Broncos loss to make the playoffs, but neither ended up happening. New York managed to upset Miami and now the Dolphins' season is over.
One has to wonder how Miami's season would have turned out if Tua Tagovailoa stayed healthy, as the offense completely fell apart when he was no longer under center.
After the Week 18 loss, Tyreek Hill seemed to indicate that he will request a trade: "I’m opening the door. I’m out, bro. It was great playing here, but at the end of the day I got to do what’s best for my career. I’m too much of a competitor to be just out there.”
After last year's trip to the Super Bowl, the 49ers lost numerous key players to injuries throughout this season.
From Christian McCaffrey to Brandon Aiyuk to Jordan Mason to Javon Hargrave to Nick Bosa to Trent Williams, San Francisco had star-studded injury reports for much of the year. That continued in Week 18 with Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, and Deommodore Lenoir among others sidelined with injuries.
The 49ers will have a big decision to make this offseason, as Purdy is seeking a massive payday that will make him one of the NFL's highest-paid quarterbacks.
The Cardinals ended their season with a blowout win against the 49ers, who were sitting many of their best players. While Arizona ended the year on a high note, this was a forgettable season for the Cardinals.
However, it's worth noting that their schedule didn't do them any favors this season, as they played the third-hardest slate of any team in the NFL.
This included games against the Lions, Vikings, Packers, Bills, Commanders, and Chargers, plus their division foes (the Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers).
After winning five of their first six games, including an impressive win over the Bills, the Texans have looked like a completely different team throughout the second half of the season. Houston's offense is now ranked 29th overall in PFN's Offense+ metric.
They dropped six of their final 11 games, including embarrassing losses against the Jets and Titans. Part of this is due to injuries, as they are now missing several key pieces, including Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs, and Jimmie Ward.
The Texans are looking shaky entering the postseason and aren't striking much fear into the hearts of their opponents these days.
The Bengals deserve a ton of credit for winning five straight games to keep their slim postseason hopes alive. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, it wasn't enough to punch their ticket.
Now, the attention will shift to the offseason, and all eyes will be on the Bengals to see if they re-sign free agent Tee Higgins and agree to a lucrative extension for Ja'Marr Chase. Both players were fantastic this season and their prices certainly went up.
Joe Burrow has made it clear that the Bengals need to re-sign Higgins: "You don’t want to make a habit of letting great players get out of the building... Tee’s a great player. A guy that does everything the right way and works really hard for it. When you have a guy like that, you just can’t let him get out of the building."
While the Week 18 matchup between the Seahawks and Rams initially looked like it might determine the NFC West, Los Angeles ended up winning the division last week due to its strength-of-victory tiebreaker.
This season didn't play out how the Seahawks hoped, but Seattle still got to play the role of spoiler, defeating the Rams and bumping them from the No. 3 seed to the No. 4 spot.
This win was also meaningful for Geno Smith, who earned $6 million in contract incentives.
A month ago, we pointed out the Steelers' brutal remaining schedule and said that we'd learn a lot about this squad down the stretch, with games against the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals. Pittsburgh had benefitted from playing the fifth-easiest schedule in the NFL prior to facing multiple contenders in a row.
Well, that tough stretch led to four straight losses for Pittsburgh. Fortunately for the Steelers, they had already clinched a playoff spot. However, no team wants to limp into the postseason like this and they are looking significantly less scary than they did several weeks ago. Some insiders even wonder if Russell Wilson may be benched for Justin Fields.
The Chargers took care of business against the Patriots and Raiders to get to 11 wins on the season. However, as we've discussed in this space in recent weeks, it is hard to know what to make of Los Angeles.
The Chargers are a well-coached team with a terrific defense, but they played the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL this season. They went just 2-4 against teams above .500, with both wins coming against the Broncos (in Weeks 6 and 16).
It will be interesting to see how Los Angeles fares in the postseason.
It took an extra week, but Denver clinched their playoff berth with a blowout win over the Chiefs' JV squad. Sure, Kansas City was resting its starters, but a win is a win.
Now, the Broncos will be able to get some playoff experience for Bo Nix. The No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft exceeded all expectations throughout his rookie campaign, and Week 18 was his best outing yet. Nix completed 26 of 29 passes for 321 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions while rushing for 47 yards.
While Denver has to feel good about having its quarterback of the future, it's the Broncos' terrific defense that makes this team so tough. They are currently the No. 1-ranked defense in PFN's Defense+ metric.
The Rams sat nearly all of their top players in Week 18 with the NFC West title in hand. Though Los Angeles had seeding to play for, head coach Sean McVay clearly prioritized getting some rest for his veteran stars and dropped to the No. 4 seed.
Los Angeles has been extremely inconsistent on both sides of the ball this season, but the best version of the Rams can compete with any team (as evidenced by their wins over the Bills and Vikings). Matthew Stafford had three weeks where he posted top-five QB+ scores this season. However, he also had eight weeks where he ranked 20th or worse.
And while the defense doesn't rank very highly in Defense+, the Rams also had five top-10 weekly finishes on that side of the ball. Entering the playoffs, the Rams are one of the biggest wild cards in the field.
The Week 18 Marcus Mariota-led dramatic comeback ensured that the Commanders will stay at the No. 6 seed (while also not being swept by their NFC East rivals, the Cowboys).
With this win, Washington avoids a third matchup against Philadelphia, where the Commanders lost 26-18 in Week 11. Instead, Jayden Daniels got the second half off to finish a regular season that will likely result in the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
Daniels ended the regular season ranked ninth in PFN's QB+ metric, one spot ahead of Patrick Mahomes. Next week, Washington can join last year's Texans as the only teams to win a playoff game the same year they drafted a quarterback top-two overall.
After an ugly first half against the Saints, the Buccaneers pulled off the come-from-behind win to clinch the NFC South for the fourth year in a row.
Not only did they punch their ticket to the playoffs, but the Bucs also made sure to get Mike Evans his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season. Evans extended his record of most 1,000-yard seasons to begin a career and tied Jerry Rice's record of the most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons in NFL history. PFN's metrics have been high on the Bucs all season since they have a dangerous offense and an impressive resume with wins over the Lions, Eagles, Commanders, and Chargers. Now, the Bucs will host Washington on Wild Card Weekend in a rematch of Week 1.
The Packers fell to the No. 7 seed after losing their regular-season finale to the Bears. The win snapped the Packers' 11-game win streak over their arch-rivals, the longest in the history of the series.
It was also the first time Green Bay lost to a team that had a worse record than them this year. Prior to Week 18, the Packers' only losses had come against teams ranked ahead of them in our power rankings (versus the Eagles, Vikings, and Lions).
Looking ahead to the Wild Card round matchup against the Eagles, the biggest concern will be the health of Jordan Love. While Matt LaFleur noted that Love was held out of this game as a precaution, the Packers will need him at his best against a Philly defense that ranks second in PFN's Defense+ metric.
The Chiefs sat most of their starters in Week 18 against the Broncos, so we won't hold the blowout loss against them. Kansas City clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC and has consistently found a way to win games this season, even if it hasn't always been pretty.
So, why are the 15-win, back-to-back defending champions sitting at No. 6 in these power rankings? Well, PFN's model isn't particularly high on the Chiefs due to their weak schedule and mediocre metrics. They don't rank top-12 offensively or defensively in PFN's model.
Their postseason experience makes them scary as they pursue the first three-peat in NFL history, but it also wouldn't be a huge surprise if they are upset earlier than expected.
The Bills earned the right to sit their starters for the regular season finale, having no mobility in either direction. The AFC's No. 2 seed has made the playoffs in seven of eight seasons under Sean McDermott after a 17-year drought -- but their labeling of this season will rely on how the postseason turns out. They are the first offense in NFL history to have 30 passing touchdowns and 30 rushing touchdowns in a single season. While Josh Allen can wear the cape on any given Sunday, the defense might hold the key. After allowing a 36.5% third down conversion rate in Weeks 6-13, they are allowing a 57.1% third down conversion rate in Weeks 14-17. If they can fix that, they have a chance to contend.
The Eagles entered the weekend locked into the NFC's No. 2 seed and were able to rest their most valuable pieces, including Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith.
They need to solve their first-quarter woes if they want to make a deep playoff run. They have a -14 point differential in first quarters — we've only had one Super Bowl champion over the past 12 years post a negative first-quarter point differential in the regular season. However, their balance makes them a true threat.
The Ravens locked in the AFC's No. 3 seed with their fourth straight 17+ point win. In the process, Lamar Jackson posted his 11th game of the season with multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions, a threshold only MVPs have hit in the past. The offense gets the attention and deservedly so, but the defense is quietly rounding into form. After allowing 2.30 points per drive through the first 10 weeks of the season, they've trimmed that number to 1.38 since, a trend that makes them as dangerous as anyone to win it all in February.
Entering the season, sportsbooks had the Vikings' over/under set at 6.5 wins, so their 14 wins have exceeded all expectations. While they had a chance to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a road win over the Lions in Week 18, they came up short and fell to No. 5.
Still, Minnesota is the biggest surprise of the 2024 season, and Sam Darnold looks poised for a lucrative payday when he hits free agency this offseason.
The big question is whether it'll be Minnesota (who drafted J.J. McCarthy with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft) or another team paying him.
The Lions beat the Vikings 31-9 on Sunday Night Football to clinch the No. 1 seed and the NFC North. It marked the first time in NFL history that two 14-win teams faced off in the regular season.
Jahmyr Gibbs was incredible, scoring four touchdowns (three rushing and one receiving) and totaling 170 yards (139 rushing and 31 receiving). Gibbs finished the season with 20 touchdowns, breaking Detroit's franchise record.
PFN's Playoff Predictor is a big fan of the Lions, ranking Detroit as the best offense and 11th-best defense while giving them a 30.1% chance to win the Super Bowl -- double the odds of the next-highest team.
