Tommy DeVito starting makes no sense at this point, and if Brian Daboll thinks this is the best way to save his job, he might as well hand in his notice now. That is not to say this team will be significantly better with Drew Lock, but it is hard to see how New York stays within a single score of the opposition, let alone win a game, in the home stretch.
The schedule has been tough, but Las Vegas has played badly on all fronts, ranking among the bottom five on offense and defense. The best thing for this Raiders' team long-term is going to be to lose out and get the best draft pick possible. However, that might not be an ideal situation for Antonio Pierce's outlook as head coach.
There are still major problems, but over the last month, this offense has been closer to the league average than the bottom. The defense is a more significant concern. At this point, the promising performances are key, and Carolina could play a spoiler role over the next six weeks.
The defense is a bigger issue, and while they found a scoop-and-score late in the game, it came more from a mistake by the Dolphins' backups than anything the defense did well. New England has multiple tough games to come, so it would not be a surprise if this team finishes with three wins.
There is not much left in this season for the Jaguars, and the fact the rest of the AFC South is so bad must only add to the mounting frustration.
Whether that is a good or bad thing for the Cowboys long-term is for you to decide.
The defense and special teams continue to provide the foundation for this team to work around, and when the offense joins the party, they can win games. The Browns have a legitimately tough schedule, but Cleveland has proven it can upset anyone when Winston is playing well.
The Titans' schedule has been tough to this point, but it will get much easier in the next few weeks. Their results against the Bengals, Colts, and Texans could shape the AFC playoff picture, especially if they can beat Houston in Week 18.
The metrics do not suggest that this is a playoff-caliber team, but the schedule is workable. Ultimately, getting to the nine wins New Orleans realistically needs might be too much of an ask, but the change in attitude since Dennis Allen's departure is noticeable.
This team will be tricky for opponents. The Saints' playoff challenge may amount to nothing, but this is a nice turn of events given where they were after Week 9.
The Falcons come out of their bye week still in control of the division but without much breathing room. They have a one-game lead over the Buccaneers, just a matter of weeks after they were looking at a potential three- or four-game lead.
The overall schedule is not that difficult, with games against the Raiders, Giants, and Panthers being very winnable. However, Atlanta has three tougher games against the Chargers, Vikings, and Commanders that could hurt its playoff hopes. The Falcons need to win at least five to be assured of clinching the division, but four might be enough.
The fight they have shown in the last two weeks is encouraging and suggests that this squad has not quit on Matt Eberflus. The defense's struggles against the Vikings are somewhat of a concern, though, especially with some good offenses to come in the last six weeks.
They now have three games coming against teams with losing records, sandwiched between two games with the Steelers and one with the Broncos. All six of those games fall into the winnable category, and Cincinnati may need at least five of them -- if not all six -- to even have a chance.
Indianapolis now has the second-easiest remaining schedule and five very winnable games around a Week 14 bye. Only one of those games comes against a team with a winning record, so if the Colts can string together competitive performances, they could win the division.
The defense continues to be a strong point, but they collapsed at times against the Titans. However, it is propping up an offense that has not been good this year. The point totals look adequate in the last two weeks, but that hides the underlying concerns of a team that has scored 25 or more points just four times this year.
The Texans desperately need their bye in Week 14 to regroup. They should be capable of beating the Jaguars this week, but we said that about the Titans last week. With games against the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens after the bye, it is not inconceivable that Houston could lose its grip on the AFC South and a playoff spot altogether.
They have plenty of opportunities to stay in the playoff hunt, with three games to come within the division as well as trips against the Saints and Jets. They have played a tough schedule, and it does not get much easier, but this is a battle-hardened team that we know will fight.
Los Angeles is very much a team that could grab a playoff spot, but it will not be a team anyone will fear on Wild Card weekend with the way things currently stand.
Heading to Green Bay will be a big litmus test for a team that could have another two cold-weather games in the final two weeks of the season and have to go on the road to a cold-weather climate in the playoffs. Lose in Green Bay, and they could find themselves 2.5 games back of the playoff spots heading into Week 14.
The offense has been very good this year, failing to score over 20 points just once and topping 30 points on six occasions. The defense is an issue, but it is getting some key pieces back and has some nice matchups in the coming weeks. The biggest remaining test for this defense is the Saints' 17th-ranked offense in Week 18.
The Buccaneers' remaining schedule is the easiest in the league. They need to go 5-1 or 6-0 to give themselves a realistic shot of winning the division, but with this schedule, that is very possible.
The game against Tennessee this week has become a must-win before their bye week in Week 14. If they get into the bye at 8-5, they have a chance to hold off the chasers. However, if Washington loses a fourth straight, it could find itself out of the playoff spots by the end of Sunday.
It appears that the Commanders' success may be partly a product of a soft schedule. They have beaten one team with a winning record and have the worst SOV of any team in the NFC with five or more wins. The positive side is that they only face two more teams with winning records as of the start of Week 13.
It is hard to judge the result in Green Bay too harshly, given that they were playing with a backup quarterback in tough conditions. However, the team's seeming inability to fight on both sides of the ball is a concern, and their performance in cold weather will raise concerns for this week in Buffalo, where they desperately need a win.
After the trip to Buffalo this week, the team plays three winnable games at home against the Bears and Rams before heading to Miami. They then finish by hosting the Lions before a trip to Arizona in Week 18. San Francisco will hope to still be in the playoff picture by then. Even if the 49ers survive, that is a tough home stretch that could require an undefeated finish.
Unfortunately, the defense that was once heralded as not allowing anyone to score more than 20 points has allowed 57 points in the past two weeks. With games against the Falcons, Chiefs, and Buccaneers on the horizon, that is a major concern.
It is certainly worth noting that the Chargers' SOV is just .333, which is the second-worst among teams in the AFC playoff spots right now. With games coming up against three teams with winning records and a fourth that is 5-6, Los Angeles' season stands at a precipice right now.
It is not inconceivable that the Chargers could be 7-8 heading into New England in Week 17. If that is to be the case, then a once-promising season would have dramatically fallen apart, leaving two must-win games to merely give themselves a chance of making the postseason.
The defense did well for the most part, but they just lost control of Jameis Winston in crucial moments, and it hurt them. The offense is perhaps the bigger concern, having failed to top 20 points in each of the last two weeks. That begs questions about whether Russell Wilson should remain the starter or if they should consider turning back to Justin Fields.
The remaining schedule for the Steelers is fairly frightful. Sure, it ranks as just the ninth-hardest, but the three easiest games are divisional games against the Browns and Bengals. Meanwhile, the other three games see them set to play the Ravens, Eagles, and Chiefs in back-to-back-to-back weeks, with back-to-back short weeks around the Christmas period.
The positive to take from defeat in Seattle was that they held them to just 16 points, continuing a strong run of results for their defense in the last six weeks or so. The offensive performance was confusing because it had just dominated against arguably better defenses than the Seahawks before the bye.
The Cardinals' schedule moving forward ranks as one of the easier ones, but there are some really tough spots with games against all three teams in their division to come and a trip to Minnesota this week. The silver lining is they only have one more outdoor game, and that comes in Week 16 in Carolina, where they will hope for fair weather.
Seattle does not do anything particularly well, but it is not bad at anything, either. Both sides of the ball hold their own and challenge teams to beat them. It is fair to question their upside against the elite teams in the league, having been blown out by the Lions and Bills, but against the next tier of teams, Seattle is highly competitive.
The Seahawks' toughest challenge going forward is that they have just two more home games, and both are against teams above them in our PR+ standings (Packers and Vikings). Their other four games would be considered winnable, but going on the road and winning consistently is tough.
They must not overlook the Jets this week ahead of another crucial matchup with Arizona, this time on the road.
The Broncos' defense has been sublime this year, ranking as the best in the league. It has allowed their offense to develop under Bo Nix. That offense is now more than capable of holding its own, having been an above-average unit in recent weeks.
There is still plenty for the Broncos to prove, given that their SOV is the worst of any team currently in an AFC playoff spot. The good news is that of the teams within three wins of them, only Indianapolis has a better SOV.
Their final three games -- in Los Angeles, in Cincinnati, and at home against the Chiefs -- could be crucial to their playoff hopes. How they do against the Browns and Colts will determine if they need to win one, two, or all three of those games.
The Packers' problem right now is that they have only beaten two teams with winning records, and both of them came at home. Their strength of victory is above that of the Eagles, Vikings, and Commanders but significantly below the class of the conference in the Lions.
Green Bay's three losses have come against the Eagles, Vikings, and Lions, which could very well be three teams on the path to the Super Bowl through the NFC playoff picture. The Packers have a chance to right those wrongs in the coming weeks with games in Detroit, Seattle, and Minnesota.
Their biggest issue right now is the defense, which could be exploited in the next two games against the Dolphins and Lions' offenses.
However, the best team they faced at that time was the Washington Commanders, and they have been a fading force over the last month. This week will tell us a lot about Philadelphia's potential in 2024. It travels to Baltimore in what could be a statement game with a win. Yet, a loss will leave us questioning whether it can compete with the best in the NFC in the playoffs.
A playoff spot should be all but confirmed for the Eagles, and the division looks well within their grasp. They have three very winnable games (Panthers, Cowboys, Giants), two they should win (Steelers and Commanders), and that game in Baltimore. Going 5-1 might be enough to clinch the first seed, and 6-0 will give them a real chance.
Philadelphia continues to lean on its defense each week. The offense is posting really pretty numbers, but it tends to be a grind-into-dust approach. Therefore, the Eagles need the defense to keep things tight so they can play to their game plan and pound the rock. If a team can jump out on them, it will be intriguing to see how the offensive plan adjusts when playing with a multi-score deficit.
We have now seen the defense have these lapses a few times this season. The Bears offense is the worst group they have had it happen against, and Brian Flores needs to do some self-evaluation on what they can do differently in the second half of games.
The remaining schedule is interesting as it ranks as the seventh-hardest, with the really difficult part backloaded. The Vikings have three home games against the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, and the Bears before traveling to Seattle.
Minnesota hopes to lock up a playoff spot by its final two games. The Vikings host the Packers before heading to Detroit in a pair of games that could decide how the NFC playoff picture shapes up.
The defense has played better in recent weeks, but there are certainly reasons to be concerned. This week, against the Philadelphia Eagles, will be a huge test on both sides of the ball, with the Eagles having a fantastic defense and a grind-you-down type of offense.
If the Ravens can win this matchup, they will be licking their lips at the final four games. Their two road games are against the New York Giants and Houston Texans, who are both eminently beatable. Then they have home dates with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, both of which will be revenge games for earlier losses.
The division is very much in the Ravens' reach, but they need the offense to continue being as good as it has been and the defense to continue improving.
Despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the league so far, 80% of Kansas City's wins have come in one-score games (8-0). That earns them both credit for being battle-hardened and a raised eyebrow. Those games tend to even out, so the Chiefs need to start putting together some more dominant performances.
This week is another "get-right" spot against a reeling Las Vegas Raiders team, but it is also a game that will earn them little credit unless they blow their opponent out of the water. There are three tough games left on this schedule against the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, and Denver Broncos.
Their two losses feel like a long time ago, and there is a real shot to chase down the number one seed if they can win five or six of their remaining games.
Buffalo's biggest tests come in the next three weeks as they host a 49ers team that will be desperate to get things right before traveling to a frisky Los Angeles Rams team and then going into the Lions' den in Detroit for a potential Super Bowl preview.
The final three weeks are all divisional matchups, so it will not be easy, but the Bills will fancy their chances against the New England Patriots and New York Jets.
The Lions face a gauntlet in the remainder of the season, with three top-10 teams in our rankings among their next six games. Even the games against the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers will not be simple for them, with the former showing they are not going to roll over for anyone in the last couple of weeks.