We head into Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season off the back of one of the strangest weeks we’ve seen this year. We saw a little moving and shaking in our Power Rankings+ metric (PR+) but no wholesale changes that shook the landscape of the playoffs completely.
Here at Pro Football Network, we’ve tried to remove the judgment element from the process by creating our PR+ metric. This metric combines our internal Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, sprinkles in some special teams, and then applies a level of correction for the strength of a team’s schedule.
Those are the top-level ingredients, but there’s much more depth that goes into creating the PFN PR+ numbers.
Is this system perfect? Absolutely not, and as we continue to research, we’ll continue tinkering with the elements that make up the PFN PR+. That may be at the Offense+ or Defense+ level, or it may be adding a fifth element that our analysis determines should be included in the overall rankings.
In the meantime, let’s take a look at where each team ranks after the first 10 weeks of the season.
1) Detroit Lions
Record: 8-1
- Offense+ Rank: 4
- Defense+ Rank: 6
- Special Teams Rank: 6
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 18
The Detroit Lions had a wobble in Week 10, or at least their offense did. However, the defense bailed them out for as long as it took for the offense to get clicking and lead them to a last-second win, thanks in part to their special teams.
The Lions are really the only team in the league that is playing complementary football across all three units, and they are deservedly atop our Power Rankings after 10 weeks.
WE'RE GONNA FLY HOME ON THE WINGS OF JAKE BATES
🎙 @DanMillerFox2 pic.twitter.com/SsvTiXzpht
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 11, 2024
The Lions’ schedule has a soft spell in the next few weeks, with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, and Chicago Bears as their next three games. However, their finishing stretch includes the Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, and Minnesota Vikings, so they should be fully battle-tested when the playoffs roll around.
That tough run to end the season is why Detroit has just a 58.1% chance of locking up the No. 1 seed.
2) Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 9-0
- Offense+ Rank: 7
- Defense+ Rank: 11
- Special Teams Rank: 24
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 17
The Kansas City Chiefs are a fascinating team right now because they seem to be sneaking out wins. The way they consistently do it is a huge credit to their players and coaching staff. Neither side of the ball is setting the world alight, but they have a top-10 offense and a top-12 defense.
Kansas City’s special teams are the only thing stopping them from being a complete football team entering Week 11.
Intriguingly, Week 10 was the first time this season that the Chiefs have not posted a positive net EPA (expected points added) per play across their offense and defense. However, they were barely in the negative this week, which is ultimately why this game came down to a field-goal attempt as time expired.
This was the seventh game the Chiefs have won by a single score this season, just four games behind the 11 that the Vikings won in 2022.
3) Baltimore Ravens
Record: 7-3
- Offense+ Rank: 1
- Defense+ Rank: 22
- Special Teams Rank: 23
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 19
What a roller coaster of a Thursday Night Football matchup we saw in Week 10. For the second time this season, the Baltimore Ravens defeated the Cincinnati Bengals. Their one-point victory made it a total of four points in which the Ravens defeated the Bengals this season.
Baltimore has its offense to thank, having scored over 30 points for the sixth time in the last seven weeks.
Meanwhile, the defense is a major concern. They’ve posted a negative defensive EPA per play in seven of 10 games and rank 28th this year in that category overall. Unless the defense improves, the Ravens will be a tough team to judge on a weekly basis, as they will be involved in a number of shootouts.
With the third-hardest remaining schedule, Baltimore has some cause for concern. With a four-game cushion established, the Ravens should be fairly comfortable in reaching the playoffs, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them sitting closer to .500 by the end of the season.
4) Buffalo Bills
Record: 8-2
- Offense+ Rank: 6
- Defense+ Rank: 13
- Special Teams Rank: 21
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 24
The next five weeks will tell us a lot about the Bills. They host the Chiefs and 49ers on either side of their bye week and then play the Los Angeles Rams and Lions at the beginning and end of that run. The Bills have looked good against mediocre teams but they stumbled against their toughest two tests of the season so far, on the road against the Ravens and Houston Texans.
The numbers suggest that Buffalo is a good team, but the soft schedule makes that hard to decipher. Finishing the season with the New England Patriots twice and the New York Jets should mean the Bills don’t face any danger of missing out on the playoffs. If they can come out of the next five weeks without losing any games, the Bills will be firmly established as a Super Bowl favorite in the AFC.
5) Minnesota Vikings
Record: 7-2
- Offense+ Rank: 12
- Defense+ Rank: 1
- Special Teams Rank: 19
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 14
It’s been an ugly month for Minnesota, with even its wins looking less than impressive. The Vikings are still right there, though, in the race for the NFC North and the conference’s No. 1 seed, thanks largely to their defensive dominance. However, the offense needs to get right quickly if they are to stay with the Lions atop the division.
Minnesota’s schedule is easier than the Lions’ and Packers’, but not by as much as it was prior to this week. They need to take full advantage of games with the Titans and Bears because all others could be closely fought contests.
6) Arizona Cardinals
Record: 6-4
- Offense+ Rank: 3
- Defense+ Rank: 27
- Special Teams Rank: 18
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 2
You could argue that after their recent dominant performances, the Arizona Cardinals’ bye week has come at the worst possible time.
The Cardinals’ offense continues to be impressive and has climbed to third in the league after 10 weeks. The defense is a little more of an unknown. The last two weeks have been impressive, allowing just 15 points in total, but it was a unit that caused Arizona a lot of trouble earlier in the year.
7) San Francisco 49ers
Record: 5-4
- Offense+ Rank: 8
- Defense+ Rank: 15
- Special Teams Rank: 32
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 15
When you look across the box scores for San Francisco, it’s been far from convincing. However, the overall numbers paint the picture of a team that will be a threat for a playoff spot and a tough one to face in the postseason.
The 49ers’ offense should only get better with Christian McCaffrey back, which should only serve to help them in their push for the playoffs.
The defense and special-teams play are concerns, especially given that the former has now posted a negative EPA per play in each of the last five games. Ultimately, a team can overcome bad special-teams play to an extent, and San Francisco has done that a couple of times this year already.
8) Green Bay Packers
Record: 6-3
- Offense+ Rank: 11
- Defense+ Rank: 18
- Special Teams Rank: 26
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 5
The Packers had their bye week arrive at just the right time, as it will have given Jordan Love another chance to get fully healthy. For Green Bay to be 6-3, having played the fifth-hardest schedule to date, and with their quarterback missing or hampered for around half those games, is quite impressive. That holds even more true when you then add in that its defense and special-teams play has been below average.
Things won’t get much easier, though, for Green Bay, who faces the sixth-hardest remaining schedule over the last eight weeks of the season. As things stand, the Packers control the No. 7 seed, but there’s a queue of teams within two games of them in the win column, so there’s not much room for error.
9) Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 7-2
- Offense+ Rank: 14
- Defense+ Rank: 4
- Special Teams Rank: 22
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 32
The Philadelphia Eagles are a little bit of a mystery. Recently, they’ve looked like a good team, racking up convincing wins. But they’ve been doing so over teams that sit in the bottom half of our PR+ rankings, and their schedule so far ranks as the easiest in the NFL.
Thus, we have to question how real their No. 4 defensive ranking is and whether their offense is even an above-average unit.
⚠️ NSFW⚠️
STRIP SACK @Bryce55H! pic.twitter.com/pfLc794vdJ
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 10, 2024
We should get an idea pretty quickly, as the Eagles face the Washington Commanders and the Ravens in two of their next three games. That should give us an idea of where this Eagles team really falls amongst the top 10 teams in 2024.
10) Washington Commanders
Record: 7-3
- Offense+ Rank: 2
- Defense+ Rank: 21
- Special Teams Rank: 14
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 30
The game between the Commanders and the Pittsburgh Steelers gave us a good indication about both teams. The fact that it was a relatively even battle demonstrates that both are likely playoff teams but probably still need some overall improvement in order to challenge for a Super Bowl berth.
Washington’s offense has been excellent this year, ranking second overall. Yet, they’ve played the third-easiest schedule to date.
The offense has stumbled a couple of times against better defensive units. Equally, because the defense is below average, the schedule thus far should raise some concerns about how the Commanders will fair against better teams down the stretch.
11) Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 7-2
- Offense+ Rank: 20
- Defense+ Rank: 7
- Special Teams Rank: 2
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 28
Pittsburgh has exceeded expectations so far in 2024 and will look to continue doing so in its first clash with Baltimore this weekend. The Steelers have ridden their defense to this point, but the offense has played its part more and more since Russell Wilson took over the starting quarterback role.
To this point, the Steelers have played the fifth-easiest schedule and face the eighth-toughest schedule going forward. In the next two months, Pittsburgh will play the Ravens, Bengals, and Browns twice, as well as the Eagles and Chiefs. We’re going to learn a lot about this team in the next eight games.
12) Denver Broncos
Record: 5-5
- Offense+ Rank: 23
- Defense+ Rank: 2
- Special Teams Rank: 7
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 16
After somewhat of a disastrous showing in Week 9, the Denver Broncos showed how tricky they can be as an opponent in Week 10. They gave the Chiefs all they could handle and would have left Arrowhead Stadium with the win if not for a moment of special-teams magic from Leo Chenal.
The Broncos proved they are a playoff contender in the AFC, but now they have to back it up for the remainder of the season.
The defense has been the star, ranking No. 2 overall and stepping up against some good offensive units at times. The offense has been fine but has its limitations. In a close game, Denver’s offense can play ball-control football and stay competitive, but it struggles as soon as they have to start chasing games and forcing things.
The Broncos’ schedule, which ranks as the eighth-easiest in the league, has plenty of winnable games remaining. The next three weeks will be key, with four tough matchups after their bye week. If Denver can get to the bye at 8-5, it may only need one more win in the final month to clinch a playoff spot.
13) Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 6-3
- Offense+ Rank: 22
- Defense+ Rank: 3
- Special Teams Rank: 10
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 29
The Los Angeles Chargers are a very similar team to their division rivals in Denver. The defense has been the star, only allowing 20 points once and never more than that number this season.
That has taken all the pressure off LA’s offense, which has struggled for consistency. With Justin Herbert now healthy, the hope will be that the offense can kick on and be at least a league-average unit.
The Chargers have also played one of the easiest schedules, and although it remains the 22nd-toughest, they have a gauntlet coming up. The next six games see the Chargers face the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Broncos. It’s not inconceivable that they could go 0-6 in that stretch, which would completely flip the way we view Jim Harbaugh’s first season back in the NFL.
14) Seattle Seahawks
Record: 4-5
- Offense+ Rank: 15
- Defense+ Rank: 14
- Special Teams Rank: 13
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 10
When you look at the Seattle Seahawks’ metrics, they look very much like a respectable league-average team, which for the most part, has been the case. The Seahawks have generally beaten those teams ranked below them and lost to those ranked above. Yet, they’ve lost five of their last six, and their bye week came at a very good time.
The next few weeks will be very telling for Seattle. The Seahawks have the seventh-hardest schedule overall in the last eight weeks, starting with the 49ers in Week 11 and two games with the Cardinals in Weeks 12 and 14.
Seattle enters this week 0-2 in the division. To have any chance at all of winning the NFC West (and likely making the playoffs), they need to be, at worst, 2-3 in the division when we reach Week 15.
15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 4-6
- Offense+ Rank: 5
- Defense+ Rank: 29
- Special Teams Rank: 7
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 1
Another team that desperately needs its bye week is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s defense dealt with injury issues early in the year, and recently, it’s been the offense.
The Bucs should get Mike Evans back in Week 12. Tristan Wirfs has an outside chance of playing then, too, which would be a huge boost to an offense that has been electric but has been trending down in recent weeks.
The Buccaneers have the biggest split between their pre and post-bye week schedule, with their remaining schedule ranking as the easiest after playing the hardest to this point.
It’s not inconceivable that Tampa Bay could run the table after its bye and finish 11-6. They will need more from its defense, though, which has been a major Achilles heel to this point.
16) Houston Texans
Record: 6-4
- Offense+ Rank: 24
- Defense+ Rank: 9
- Special Teams Rank: 16
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 12
The Texans are incredibly lucky that their division is bad because they haven’t put together a good showing in the first 10 weeks this season. Houston’s loss to the Lions perfectly encapsulated what we’ve seen this season, with its defense doing an outstanding job but the offense being unable to capitalize and put teams away.
The only team the Texans have beaten who is currently above .500 is the Bills, and even that game felt like one both offenses tried their best to lose. Houston does at least play the second-easiest remaining schedule, starting with a three-week run against the Cowboys, Titans, and Jaguars.
The division is theirs for the taking, but the No. 4 seed might be Houston’s ceiling, with a tough matchup likely with the Ravens or Steelers on Wild Card Weekend.
17) Miami Dolphins
Record: 3-6
- Offense+ Rank: 18
- Defense+ Rank: 16
- Special Teams Rank: 29
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 27
The Miami Dolphins’ third win of the season and the first since the start of October was very timely for their playoff hopes. Miami’s offensive number here is a bit misleading because, with Tua Tagovailoa, this is a top-10 unit. Without him, though, it’s bottom three, if not the worst in the league.
The Dolphins’ defense got some key pieces back in Week 10, and it showed, restricting the Rams to just 15 points. Miami now needs to take advantage of a relatively soft remaining schedule to try and get as close to 10 wins as it can. There are five very winnable games left on the schedule and three they should at least be competitive in.
18) Los Angeles Rams
Record: 4-5
- Offense+ Rank: 13
- Defense+ Rank: 19
- Special Teams Rank: 25
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 4
Just when you think the Rams’ offense is back, it splutters again. Matthew Stafford was harried all night, and Kyren Williams barely had any time before he was hit on running plays. If the offensive line cannot improve, then Los Angeles’ season is going to peter out pretty quickly.
The schedule to this point has been really tough, and it doesn’t get much easier with the 10th-hardest remaining schedule. In the next five games, the Rams take on the Eagles, Bills, and 49ers, as well as a trip to New England, which is not an easy road game for a warm-weather dome team.
LA’s defense has been steadily improving but will need to step up if the offense continues to be inconsistent in the coming weeks.
19) Atlanta Falcons
Record: 6-4
- Offense+ Rank: 10
- Defense+ Rank: 28
- Special Teams Rank: 28
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 21
Week 10 highlighted exactly what we’ve been concerned about all season with the Atlanta Falcons, who lost to the New Orleans Saints in an embarrassing manner. A couple of big plays exposed Atlanta’s defense, and special teams proved to be as fragile as the numbers have indicated all year. The offense was fine but not spectacular and couldn’t quite do enough to take control of the game.
For a team with a virtual 2.5-game lead in their division, there is a lot to be nervous about with the Falcons. The Buccaneers’ schedule is the easiest remaining, and the Falcons have at least three and potentially four games we can call “lose-able.” It wouldn’t be a surprise in the slightest if the NFC South goes right down to Week 18.
20) Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 4-6
- Offense+ Rank: 9
- Defense+ Rank: 31
- Special Teams Rank: 17
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 22
It’s still difficult to know how to feel about the Bengals in Week 10. On the other hand, they gave a good Ravens team everything they could handle and could easily have won that game. But they also lost to another good team and have yet to prove that they can beat the better teams this year.
Cincinnati’s offense continues to be impressive and takes full advantage when facing bad defenses. Yet, we need to see them do it against better units in the Chargers and Steelers.
The Bengals’ defense is the major concern, ranking as the second-worst unit in the NFL to this point. The next two games will be very telling in several ways, with the Bengals’ playoff hopes hanging in the balance.
21) New York Jets
Record: 3-7
- Offense+ Rank: 17
- Defense+ Rank: 10
- Special Teams Rank: 31
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 11
After an impressive fightback performance in Week 9, the Jets gave it all away with barely a whimper in Arizona. Their loss was not only frustrating from a playoff perspective but also pretty embarrassing. New York was soundly beaten, and its playoff chances dropped significantly as a result.
Outside of that game against Houston, there has been nothing to suggest this Jets team can compete for a playoff spot since Jeff Ulbrich took over. The firing of Robert Saleh appears to have had the opposite impact of how the ownership expected. If anything, the team has regressed in the last five weeks.
New York needs to win this week against the Indianapolis Colts and then use the bye to regroup and try to run the table in the final six weeks.
22) Indianapolis Colts
Record: 4-6
- Offense+ Rank: 21
- Defense+ Rank: 23
- Special Teams Rank: 11
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 6
If you said that the Colts would lose to the Vikings and Bills in the last two weeks, no one would have been shocked. However, the frustrating thing has been that they’ve been in the games for large periods but unable to make a decisive blow to sneak out a win.
Joe Flacco has not elevated Indianapolis’ offense. Over the last two weeks, it was his mistakes that put the Colts back against the wall.
Despite everything, Indianapolis is in an intriguing spot, with the fourth-easiest remaining schedule. You can pick out five winnable games from their remaining seven, and if they can upset the Broncos in Week 15, that could be enough to seal a playoff spot.
23) Chicago Bears
Record: 4-5
- Offense+ Rank: 28
- Defense+ Rank: 5
- Special Teams Rank: 15
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 31
It has been a horrible three weeks for the Bears. They saw a win in Week 8 quite literally bounce off their fingertips into the hands of their opposition. Then, in the last two weeks, they’ve scored a combined 12 points against two defenses that rank inside the bottom 10 at the position this year.
Since the bye, Chicago has scored a total of 27 points, and its rookie QB looks as bad as he did to start the season.
What makes all of this worse for the Bears is that their offense, which was supposed to be the best spot for a rookie quarterback ever, is the fifth-worst unit in the NFL despite having played the second-easiest schedule so far this year.
Things are only going to get tougher, with Chicago facing the hardest remaining schedule this season. Maybe firing Shane Waldron will make the difference…
24) New Orleans Saints
Record: 3-7
- Offense+ Rank: 19
- Defense+ Rank: 20
- Special Teams Rank: 9
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 20
The Saints’ Week 10 win was a feel-good band-aid for them, but that’s really all it was. If not for the Falcons’ special-teams mistakes, New Orleans would have lost an eighth straight and be facing a complete abyss.
The Saints’ numbers aren’t that bad in terms of individual statistics, but the sum of the parts is the trouble. New Orleans has nothing to base its team around, and that will make it hard to consistently win games.
They have the third-easiest remaining schedule, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Saints reel off another three or four wins to close out the season. If only they had not fallen apart so badly in the first half of the season and weren’t banged up, this could be a potential playoff team.
25) Tennessee Titans
Record: 2-7
- Offense+ Rank: 27
- Defense+ Rank: 17
- Special Teams Rank: 30
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 7
The Titans are a mediocre team all around, and it’s showing week in and week out.
Tennessee’s defense has played well in spots, and to be league-average while supporting a bad offense and playing the seventh-hardest schedule deserves some credit. Unfortunately, it’s not good enough to lift this team into any level of contention while playing with that offense.
The Titans’ only goal in the last eight weeks is to determine whether they should invest in Will Levis as their quarterback of the future. If he wins them games, great; if not, they get a better draft pick to select his replacement.
26) Cleveland Browns
Record: 2-7
- Offense+ Rank: 32
- Defense+ Rank: 8
- Special Teams Rank: 3
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 23
It’s anyone’s guess as to which version of the Cleveland Browns we will get after their bye. We know that the defense and special teams will be solid, as they have been all year, but the offense under Jameis Winston is the true unknown.
This Browns team is in no-man’s land because they will almost certainly not make the playoffs. They should also not be auditioning Winston as the franchise QB of the future.
27) New York Giants
Record: 2-8
- Offense+ Rank: 30
- Defense+ Rank: 12
- Special Teams Rank: 27
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 13
At this point, the New York Giants should make every decision based on what gives them the best chance to lose. They are almost certainly not making the playoffs, regardless of who is under center. New York’s best hope is to get the best draft pick possible to draft a new quarterback or to be able to trade for one.
The offense is so bad right now that a top-12 defense cannot carry this team to wins. Daniel Jones has moments that remind you why he was a first-round pick, and then he has moments where you question whether he has ever played the sport before.
The Giants’ know the answer at quarterback, so now they have eight weeks to determine whether the head coach and general managers are the right men to lead the revamp.
28) Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 2-8
- Offense+ Rank: 16
- Defense+ Rank: 30
- Special Teams Rank: 5
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 8
The Jaguars nearly beating the Vikings was one of the oddest games of the season so far. It was confusing that the defense kept them in the game, while it was also promising to see that Trevor Lawrence isn’t the root of all the offense’s problems.
Jacksonville has played a tough schedule so far. Things do get easier from here, but it doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of the playoffs.
29) Dallas Cowboys
Record: 3-6
- Offense+ Rank: 25
- Defense+ Rank: 26
- Special Teams Rank: 4
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 3
Much like with the Jaguars, it’s nice to see that Dak Prescott wasn’t the sole problem with the Dallas Cowboys.
The fact Cooper Rush is starting over Trey Lance is perhaps the most telling thing we need to know about the trajectory of Lance’s career. There’s not much to be excited about for the Cowboys, but their schedule has also been really tough. It gets a little easier going forward, but several tough games are still to come.
30) Las Vegas Raiders
Record: 2-7
- Offense+ Rank: 29
- Defense+ Rank: 25
- Special Teams Rank: 12
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 9
Hopefully, the combination of a bye week and a new philosophy on offense can jump-start the Las Vegas Raiders offense. But they also need to get more from their defense.
How Las Vegas performs down the stretch could determine whether we believe Antonio Pierce is on the hot seat this offseason.
31) New England Patriots
Record: 3-7
- Offense+ Rank: 31
- Defense+ Rank: 24
- Special Teams Rank: 1
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 25
New England winning games in the early stages of its rebuild is a nice feel-good factor, and the fact that the Patriots are two games off the AFC playoff picture is crazy to consider. However, the remaining schedule ranks as the fifth-toughest, so there should be no dreaming of playoff berths and January upsets in Foxborough.
It’s been good to see the defense play better in recent weeks, but the Patriots have some sterner tests coming up in the last two months. The offense hasn’t progressed as much as we would hope, but Drake Maye is still playing with one of the worst skill-position groups in the league, so expectations should be tempered.
32) Carolina Panthers
Record: 3-7
- Offense+ Rank: 26
- Defense+ Rank: 32
- Special Teams Rank: 20
- SOS Rank Through Week 10: 26
It’s been nice to see some positivity around the Carolina Panthers, but their two wins have been less about their play and more about the abject play and mistakes of their opponents. This team has been so far cut adrift at the bottom of the Power Rankings that despite some positive results, it’s still significantly behind the Patriots ahead of them.
This season is all about continued progress for Bryce Young and evaluating who should stay around him. The game in the Allianz Arena was not a developmental step forward, but international games in cold environments are tough for any quarterback.